城市规划的弹性工作方法研究3

3,(,100101):,,,,,,,:;;:TU981:A:1006-7329(2006)01-0004-04StudyontheFlexibleParadigmofUrbanPlanningSHENGKe-rong,WANGHai(InstituteofGeographicalSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,P.R.China)Abstract:Thereisagreatprobabilityinthedevelopmentofmodernurbaneconomy,andthetraditionalrigidurbanplanningparadigmcan’tmeettheneedoftheurbanconstruction.Theflexibleworkmethodwillbecomethedevelopingdirectionofurbanplanningatthenewstage.Intheflexibleurbanplanning,theitemsofurbandevelopmentprediction,landusearrangement,andurbandevelopmentpolicies,allhavegreatflexibilityandareindeterminate.Sotheflexibleparadigmcankeeptheurbanplanningadjustablewiththestabilityinwhole.TakingthepopulationpredictionofBengbuasanexample,theauthorfinallyexplainshowtheflexiblemethodofurbanplanningworks.Keywords:urbanplanning;flexible;BengbuCity(elasticity),,,,,1:1.1,,,,,,[1,2],,,,,:,()1.2,,,,,,,(28120062JournalofChongqingJianzhuUniversityVol.28No.1Feb.20063:2005-08-20:(40341008):(1977-),,,,1a),,,,,(1b)a)b)11.3,,,,,,,[3],,A={y;y},B={x;x},BAA,;B¾A,,,,,,,[4]22.1,,,,,,,(SEA),,(2)22.2,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,51,:,,,,[5,6],2.3,,,[7],,,,,,,2.4[8],,,,,,,,;1520,,3:3.120,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3.2,:(1):,,510,(2):,(3):,,,,3.33.1.1(),,8,;2.12,,19642002,:Pt=148.8954+5.6349(t-1963)-0.0153(t-1963)2:Pt,t,:2010380,20204203.1.2():,2001201020112020GDP10.5%9%;200120102011202012%10%:,2002201020112020GDP12%11%;,200220102011628202013.5%12.5%,,,,102.12,20022010910,206201120201012,34,20:P=P0(1+r+r)k:P,P0;r;r;k,:2010382,2020434:2010385,20204504,,,,,,,,:[1],.J.,1999,18(2):97-102.[2].M.:,2003.[3].J.,1993,(7):14-15.[4],.J.,2004,18(1):24-27.[5],.J.(),2004,27(2):214-217.[6].J.,1996,(3):30-32.[7].M.:,2000.[8].J.,1994,(1):38-41.(3),;,,,,[6],,,:[1].J.,2003,27(1):17-20.[2],,.M.:,2001.[3]JohuE.Flynn,ClydeHendrick,TerySpencer,OsypMartyni2uk.AguidetomethodlogyProceduresformeasuringsubjec2tiveimpressionsinLightingJ.JournalofIES,1979,8:95-110.[4].M.:,1991.[5],,,.J.,2005,29(2):1-4.[6],,.J.,1999,21(4):65-68.71,: