变化环境下非一致性年径流序列的水文频率计算原理

386200512()EngineeringJournalofWuhanUniversityVol.38No.6Dec.2005:2004210213:(19632),,,,,,.:(50579052).:167128844(2005)0620062041,1,1,2(1.,430072;2.,100101):,.,,.,,,;,,.:;;;;:TV121.2:AHydrologicalfrequencycalculationprincipleofinconsistentannualrunoffseriesunderChangingenvironmentsXIEPing1,CHENGuang2cai1,XIAJun1,2(1.StateKeyLaboratoryofWaterResourcesandHydropowerEngineeringScience,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,China;2.InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,CAS,Beijing100101,China)Abstract:Owingtotheeffectsoffrequenthumanactivitiesandclimatechange,thenaturalannualrunoffseriesforwaterresourcesevaluationcalculationlosttheirconsistency.Inordertoadapttoachangingenvironmentdemandforhydrologicalfrequencycalculation,thehydrologicalfrequencycalculationprin2cipleofinconsistentannualrunoffserieswasproposedbasedontimeseriesanalysis,includinganas2sumptionpreconditionandageneralmethod.Inthismethod,ontheassumptionthatinconsistentannualrunoffserieswerecomposedofrelativelyconsistentrandomcomponentandinconsistentdeterministiccomponent;firstlytherandomcomponentanddeterministiccomponentwereidentifiedandtestedbyusinggeneticanalysismethodandstatisticanalysismethod;andthefittingcalculationofdeterministiccomponentandthefrequencycalculationofrandomcomponentweremadeseparately;secondlyaccordingtothetheoryofdecompositionandcompositionintimeseriesanalysis,thedeterministicforecastingval2ueandstochasticdesignvalueweresynthesized;andthepastandpresentaswellasfuturefrequencydis2tributionsweregained.Keywords:changingenvironment;inconsistency;annualrunoff;hydrologicalfrequencycalculation;principle6:20,,,,,.,,,.(),,.[13],,.,,,.1,.,,.,,,;,()(),,.,,,.,,.,,,,.,,.,[13],,.,.,,,,,.2.Xt[4](),XtXt=Yt+Pt+St(1):Yt(Ct,Bt);Pt();St();t.,,.(),,.7()2005,;;,1.2.1.,.,.,,.[48]:(Spearman)(Ken2dall)(Lee)(Heghinan)(R/S)TF.[911]:.(1),Xtt0,t0,,t0,Xt=St,tt0St+Yt,tt0(2):St;Yt.,Yt;,Ytt;,Ytt,Yt.,,1.,(),([12]).(2)XtYt,St.XtSt,([13]),P-:ŠxCVCS,.2.2,;,YtSp.,,.(1),PSp,t86:Yt,tPXt,p,Xt,p=Yt+Sp(3),Xt,pYt,Xt,pSp,Sp=Xt,p-Yt(4)Sp,tSpp.,Xt,pYtSp.,,,,.(2)Xt,pYtSp,t,Yt,Xt,pSp,Xt,p=Yt+Sp.,.,()[14,15]TaylorTagu2chiRosenblutheMonteCarlo.(3),.:,MonteCarlo;(),P-:ŠxCVCS,;,.MonteCarlo:;MonteCarlo(P-);,,.3,,,:(1),,.(2),,.(3),,,,,.(4),,.:[1].[J].,2000,20(6):9212.[2].[J].,2003(3):15218.[3].[J].,2003(2):38240.[4],.[M].:.1988.[5],,.[J].,2001,19(3):49251.[6],,,.[J].,2001(11):28230.[7],,.(15)96:()[J].,1998,17(2):1252130.[5],,,.[J].,2003,58(5):7892196.[6]XIAJun,WANGGang2sheng,YEAi2zhong.Adis2tributedmonthlywaterbalancemodelforanalysingimpactsofbandcoverchangeonflowregimes[J].Pedosphere,2005,15(6):7612767.[7],.[J].,2004,59(3):3232330.[8],,,.DEM[J].,2002,21(5):4302439.[9],.[M].:,1999.[10]XiaJ.Asystemapproachtorealtimehydrologicalforecastsinwatersheds[J].WaterInternational,2002,27(1):87297.[11]TerpstraJ,MazijkA.Computeraidedevaluationofplanningscenariostoassesstheimpactofland2usechangesonwaterbalance[J].Phys.Chem.Earth(B),2001,26(728):5232527.[12]SinghVP.:[M]..:,1999.(9)R/S[J].(),2002,35(2):10212.[8],,,.[J].,2005,23(2):11214.[9],,.[J].,1999(1):34237.[10],,.[J].,2002,14(1):19224.[11],,,.[J].,2001,32(8):125.[12].[A]..[C].:,2003,19227.[13],.[J]..2000,33(1):49252.[14].[J].,2001,23(1):1072110.[15],,.[J].,1998(6):50260.51