海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算

:10072284(2006)01003305王亚华,张宁,施祖麟(,100084):利用多种方法估算海河流域水生态环境破坏造成的经济损失,并综合已有相关研究,认为1999年的经济损失相当于流域GDP的0.63%~16.6%利用影子价格法估算的经济损失相当于流域GDP的7.3%海河流域现状水生态环境恶化造成的相对经济损失值处在历史高峰期未来在实施南水北调工程及按照规划开展大规模节水挖潜举措的前提下,经济损失的相对量将大为减少,但是绝对经济损失量可能还会有所增大向流域节水挖潜领域的项目投资,会给全社会带来较高的经济收益:海河;水生态环境;经济损失;影子价格:F224:AAnEstimateofEconomicLossesCausedbyWaterEcoEnvironmentDeteriorationintheHaiRiverBasinWANGYahua,ZHANGNing,SHIZulin(SchoolofPublicPolicy&Management,TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084)Abstract:UsingdiversemethodstoestimatetheeconomiclossescausedbywaterecosystemdeteriorationintheHaiRiverBasinandreferencingtheforegoingstudies,thispaperconcludestheeconomiclossesrangedfrom0.63to16.6percentoftotalriverbasin'sGDPin1999.Theauthorsrecommend7.3percentofGDPasareasonablevalue,whichiscalculatedbythemethodofShadowPrice.Currentrelativeeconomiclosseshavereachedthepeakvalueinthehistory.UnderthepreconditionsofconstructingtheWaterTransferfromSouthtoNorthandimplementationofwatersavingtechniqueaccordingtotheplanning,therelativeeconomiclosseswilldecreasegreatlyandtheabsoluteeconomiclosseswillbestillinclinedtoriseinthenextdecades.Theinvestmentintheprojectsofwatersavingreformwillbringnotableeconomicreturnstothewholesociety.KeyWords:HaiRiverbasin;waterecosystem;economiclosses;shadowprice1,,1980,,3:;();[1]:20050531:::(1976),,,,,(2003)[2](2000)(1998)[3,4],(2004)[5],,,CGE,[6-8],,[9,10],,,33中国农村水利水电2006年第1期,(),,(ShadowPrice,SP)2050JanTinbergenKantorovitch,,,,,,,,,,,,1999,,,(2003)1999(),2.34/m3,5.13/m3[11]L(SP):L(SP)=Q(SP-P)(1):Q;SP;P,,L(SP),,L(SP)(MarginalOpportunityCost,MOC),3:(MarginalProductionCost,MPC),;(MarginalUseCost,MUC),;(MarginalExternalCost,MEC),3:MOC=MPC+MUC+MEC(2)(MOC),,,,(MC)(MOC),MC=MOCMCMOC,;MCMOC,,,,11L(MOC):L(MOC)=12(P*-P)(Q-Q*)(3):P*Q*MB=MC=MOC;PQMCMOCL(MOC),,,,,219992.1利用影子价格法对全流域经济损失的估算1,GDP,22,19991999GDP7.30%,,,,GDP2.2利用边际机会成本法对全流域经济损失的估算3,:(1)=(2),,,:Q-Q*=Q1+Q2(4),:L=12(PR-P)(Q1+Q2)(5)3,199966.57,199934海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算王亚华张宁施祖麟GDP0.63%,,(1),,,1/m3/(m-3)412611328554225982639579792.240.0881.460.4023524180876284352328353.200.1102.000.6566869127366570192512542.400.1101.801.10212662188057412141722146531.620.0971.300.311798511888729771398491.950.0951.450.3630728631170274656893631.600.0821.600.2157643335269201134130251.500.0751.400.34320094002400150001.600.0771.100.57-2000-20001.940.0851.670.09:2000;,2GDP/[11]/(m-3)/GDP/%10508.182.345.13767.03119.247.301.132174.462.976.5253.957.812.480.361450.064.169.6676.8148.555.303.354569.192.655.76518.4288.0411.351.93495.291.93.6921.503.134.340.631068.171.543.1491.684.738.580.44716.261.53.0847.989.116.701.2730.461.032.030.700.142.290.454.291.062.350.2004.550:GDP:20003P/(m-3)PR/(m-3)Q/m3Q1/m3Q2/m3L/2.205.1370.5016.4918.8051.701.461.10~2.4027.406.417.301.990.090.09~0.23312.8048.8683.394.9601.10~2.4021.403.345.717.92--432.1075.10115.2066.57::,9:(2003),,0,:.22.9m3,38.4m3,:.8115.2m3,,,:,(2004)35海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算王亚华张宁施祖麟2.3利用直接法和影子价格法对沧州地区经济损失的估算,,1999,4(1),1999,20945hm23%~5%,622.2hm25%~8%,4315hm28%,,9.061999,()50.56%,1.341999,48.87(),0.43,1999,10.9,14%(2)2.25(3),13.15,1999GDP3.11%,,,,38,48.8%7.8445.84,GDP10.85%4,(),199913.15~45.84,GDP3.11%~10.85%49.061.34380.342.257.8413.1545.84GDP/%3.1110.8533.1英若智(2003)估算结果(2003)1990~2000,551990~20001271030~50167~187838433.8362.3246.9444~900,GDP9.72%~19.70%,,GDP(51.62%),860,1999GDP8.19%;1743,1999GDP16.59%()()860~1743,1999GDP8.19%~16.59%3.2北京水科院(2000)的估算,(GDP)661981~1995/GDP128.141981~1995148.241980~19951980~1998813.56t11.6541981~19951981~199516.27m33.931981~199542.31981~1995(1990)28.461981~19952141981~1995,,1981~199521414.26,1999,,,GDP6.7%3.3几项研究结果的对比736海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算王亚华张宁施祖麟7GDPGDP/%7.3019990.6319993.1110.85(2003)8.19~16.591999(2000)6.701981~1995(1998)31992,,GDP0.63%~16.6%,,,,1999GDP7.3%,GDP(1999GDP9.08%)41960~2030,,,,(2004),[12],1999,GDPp(t),Q1(t)Q2(t)Q3(t)Q4(t)Q5(t),p1(t):p1(t)=p(2000)Q1(t)-[Q3(t)+Q5(t)+Q4(t)-Q2(t)]Q1(2000)-[Q3(2000)+Q5(2000)-Q2(2000)](6),p2(t):p2(t)=p(2000)Q1(t)-[Q3(t)+Q5(t)-Q2(t)]Q1(2000)-[Q3(2000)+Q5(2000)-Q2(2000)](7)p(2000)19997.3%8,,,2010,609,451,-0.742010~2030,346,2030,955,2154,-2.268p1/%GDPp2/%GDP/1/2//19600019702.212.2119804.784.7819905.935.9320007.307.3010508767767020103.595.6721657777122845120301.875.2863190118233362154:2000,1999,:2000201020302000()2000~20107.5%,2010~20305.5%1,2=2-1,()5,,1999,GDP7.3%,GDP40,,,,,,,GDP5%,,,,,,,:[1].[Z].2002.[2].[R].,2003,(2).[3].[R].2000.[4].[J].,1998(2):29-32.(41)37海河流域水生态环境破坏的经济损失估算王亚华张宁施祖麟,,,;,,,,,,0.65~0.8533.2.3内记忆功能的作用[7],20.8,CSA12,,CSA,21003005008001200160020003000111291099993.2.4不同初始取值范围的影响,500,0.8,,3,,,;,CSA,3()0.10.51.02.55105010020052*197926896427497776*68*68*:*,4,,CSA,,CSA,:;,,0.65~0.85;,:[1].[M].:,1992,180-181.[2],.[J].,1990,11(2):24-27.[3].[J].,2000,11(4):387-391.[4].[J].,1991,7(5):13-17.[5],,.[J].,2002,23(2):1-6.[6].[M].:,.2001,17-33.[7].SA[J].,2003,15(12):1750-1752,1762.[8],,.[J].,2001,20(1):1-5.[9],,.[J].,1999,14(4):381-384.[10],.[M].:,1999,90-139.(37)[5].[M].:,2004.[6].[R].2002.[7].[M].:,1998.[8],.:[M].:,1998.[9].:[M].:,2002.[10],,.[A]..[C].:,2004,173-182.[11],.[J].,2003,(15):49-53.[12]