瑞士信贷XXXX年中国地产行业投资策略

DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXCONTAINSANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSANDTHESTATUSOFNONUSANALYSTS.FOROTHERIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,visitwww.credit-suisse.com/researchdisclosuresorcall+1(877)291-2683USDisclosure:CreditSuissedoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethattheFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.CREDITSUISSESECURITIESRESEARCH&ANALYTICSBEYONDINFORMATION®Client-DrivenSolutions,Insights,andAccess21January2013AsiaPacific/ChinaEquityResearchRealEstateChinaPropertySectorSECTORREVIEWSalesmomentumvshousingpriceriskFigure1:2013Econtractedsalesgrowthvaries-drivenbynewsupply24%18%18%17%13%12%7%0%0%5%10%15%20%25%SinoOceanPolyPropertyCRLandCountryGardenVankeGZR&FGreentownAgile2013EcontractedsalesgrowthrateSource:Companydata,CreditSuisseestimates■Ourbasecasefor1H13Ehousingpricesis+5%inthelargecities,withupsiderisks.WediscussedinourJuly2012report(clickhere)thatshort-termhousingpricescorrelatewithliquidity.Theliquiditythatdrovehousingpriceshigherin2H12shouldcontinuetodosoin1H13E,withtier1cities’housingpricespotentiallyrisingmuchhigher.WithCPIrising,however,China’s2013Emonetarypolicymaynotbeaslooseasin2012,andpotentialpolicyriskscreateuncertaintiesforthehousingpricetrendin2H13E.■Butprimarytransactionvolumeupsidemaybelimited.Ourpreviousforecastofamildvolumesdeclinedidnotpanoutin2012,althoughdevelopers’ASPdiddecline.In2013E,weexpectprimaryhousingtransactionvolumesinthelargecitiestohaveverylimitedgrowthbecausethedeclineinconstructionnewstartsin2012shouldleadtofewernewlaunches,andthe2012salesvolumesarealreadyatahighbase(averagesalesvolumeswereupby23%in2012amongdevelopersunderourcoverage).■2013Econtractedsalesdependsonnewsupply—upgradeSinoOceantoOUTPERFORM.Weremainconcernedaboutaffordabilityandotherstructuralissues,butthestronghome-buyers’sentimentshouldsustainsalesinthenearterm.SinoOceanstandsoutamongdevelopersashavingahighcontractedsalespotentialin2013,andtradingatrelativelylessdemandingvaluation.WealsocontinuetolikeChinaVanke,CRLand,FranshionandPolyProperty.Bychangingour1H13Ehousingpriceassumptionfromflatto+5%,wealsoraisetheNAVofourcoverageuniverseby24%onaverage.Wehavemadetargetpricechangestostocksunderourcoverage.Refert[e-mail]@credit-suisse.comContributionbyParkerDingCreditSuisseAPACPropertyTeamJinsongDu(RegionalheadandChina)StephenRich(Australia)CussonLeung(HongKong)TeddyOetomo(Indonesia)MinseokSinn(Korea)TingminTan(Malaysia)YvonneVoon(Singapore)ChungHsu(Taiwan)ChaiTechakumpuch(Thailand)21January2013ChinaPropertySector2FocuschartsandtablesFigure2:Socialfinancingasaproxytoliquidityleadshousingpricesinrecentyears—near-teammomentumshouldstaypositiveFigure3:Homeprice/householdannualdisposableincomeintier1cities—long-termstructuralissuesstillexist-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%Jan-07Mar-07May-07Jul-07Sep-07Nov-07Jan-08Mar-08May-08Jul-08Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13Mar-13TotalAmountofSocialFinancingYoYTier-1cities'secondaryhousingpriceYoY051015202530Jun-04Sep-04Dec-04Mar-05Jun-05Sep-05Dec-05Mar-06Jun-06Sep-06Dec-06Mar-07Jun-07Sep-07Dec-07Mar-08Jun-08Sep-08Dec-08Mar-09Jun-09Sep-09Dec-09Mar-10Jun-10Sep-10Dec-10Mar-11Jun-11Sep-11Dec-11Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12(Year)BeijingShanghaiShenzhenGuangzhouSource:CEIC,CentalineSource:Centaline,CreditSuisseestimatesFigure4:COLI’sP/Bratio—largecap’svaluationsarealreadyrichFigure5:Smallercaps’valuationisrelativelylow–SinoOcean’sP/Bratio0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.5Jan-05Jul-05Jan-06Jul-06Jan-07Jul-07Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10Jan-11Jul-11Jan-12Jul-12Jan-13COLIPBR3yrsmovingavg+1SD-1SD-0.50.00.51.01.52.02.5Sep-08Nov-08Jan-09Mar-09May-09Jul-09Sep-09Nov-09Jan-10Mar-10May-10Jul-10Sep-10Nov-10Jan-11Mar-11May-11Jul-11Sep-11Nov-11Jan-12Mar-12May-12Jul-12Sep-12Nov-12Jan-13SinoOceanLandPBR3yrsmovingavg+1SD-1SDSource:DataStream,CreditSuisseresearchSource:DataStream,CreditSuisseresearchFigure6:NAVandtargetpricerevisionssince1January2013PreviousTPCurrentTPChangePreviousNAVCurrentNAVChange3383.HKAgile8.310.2023%15.118.523%000002.SZChinaVanke12.514.1013%13.915.713%0688.HKCOLI14.620.7042%17.224.442%2007.HKCountryGarden3.84.108%5.45.98%1109.HKCRLand23.424.302%34.034.72%3333.HKEvergrande3.45.2053%4.97.453%0817.HKFranshion2.83.7032%5.15.34%2777.HKGuangzhouR&F9.613.0035%17.523.635%1813.HKKWG4.75.7021%8.510.421%3377.HKSinoOcean4.17.5083%7.510.744%Source:CreditSuisseresearch21January2013ChinaPropertySector3SalesmomentumvshousingpriceriskWeexpectverystrongcontractedsalesmomentumforJanuary,especiallyonaYoYbasis.However,thefaster-than-expectedhousingpriceincreaseinsomelargecitiesmayincreasemedium-termrisks.Weremainconcernedaboutthesector’sstructuralissues,butexpectnear-termliquiditytodrivesomeChinapropertys