财务报表分析与投资决策

华中科技大学硕士学位论文财务报表分析与投资决策姓名：彭延安申请学位级别：硕士专业：工商管理指导教师：杨超20061018_____I,,,,,.IIAbstractInvestmentdecision-makingandFinancialanalysisaretwoofthemostimportantpartsoftheinvestment.Thestudyoninvestmentdecision-makingandFinancialanalysisofenterpriseisgreatsignificancebothintheoryandinpractice.Thisarticleintegrateduseoffinancialanalysis,investmenteconomicsanddecision-makingtheoryandmethods.Throughthetheoreticalanalysis,wemainlyhaveanalyzedthedomesticandforeignresearchpresentsituation,andtracestheinvestmentdecision-makingandFinancialanalysisonthetheory,theformationandthedevelopment,andIelaboratedtheInvestmentdecision-makingandFinancialanalysispattern,expoundedtheinvestmentexistenceriskandtheproposewashowsmalldodgedtherisk.Theresearchworkhascarriedontherealdiagnosisanalysisandthetheoryexcavationinviewoftheabovequestion.Firstly,thethesisintroducesthebackgrounds,thesignificance,theinnovativeachievementsandthemotivationsofchoosingthistopic.Inthispart,theorigination,developmentandrecentinnovationofinvestmentmanagementissummarized.Afterthat,themagnificentsignificanceisaddressedandthemaingoalandcontentsofthisthesisispresented.Financialanalysisisapartofeconomicanalysis.Theactivitiesofenterpriseisawholesystem,all-sidedevaluationoftheenterpriseoperationandbusinessresultisaninsistentdemandformanagement.Ifwecannotanalysefinancialreportcorrectly,itshouldcausewrongdecision.Secondly,thethesisintroducesinvestmenttheoryandanalyzesriskexistingininvestment.Thedefinitionandcontentoffinancialanalysisisalsointroduced.Inthefollowingcontent,currentdecision-makingmodelsandfinancialanalysisareintroduced.Thedisadvantageofcurrentinvestmentmanagementisanalyzedinthissection.Finally,basedonthis,financialanalysismodelisdiscussedtoformthenewinformationdecision-makingmodel.Theframework,detailedprocedureofinvestmentdecision-makingisalsoproposed.Keywords:Financialanalysis,Mode,InvestmentDecision-Making411.1[1][2][2]51.2LeopoldA.BernsteinJohnJ.Wild[3][4]61.3(1)(2)(3)722.112345[28][4][29][5]1952——E(r)σ2UE(r)-0.005Aσ2UA0.005AA————[32]8,,,[33],92.22.2.1“”[34]11[6]10[35]2[36]3211[37]2.2.2,,,[1]???,,,:;;;;122.2.3,,,,,,[1],,,,,,,:;;;;,:;;;;;[38]1332090[1]3.11[2]41994450--500199521994[3]2[28]143[29]2080802000[3][30][1]153.2[4]1“”1515[5]1996“=/”1996“=/”[6]21610%10%10%10%~11%9%~10%9%[7]3“”[8]“”“”[9]174,,,,,[39];;,,,,[40],,,4.14.1.1[41]18[42][43]194.1.2[1]1[12]22034[1][13]21[14](1)199712171)22100%[15]19958194625.066282661.7514477286.81[16]2)[17]233)[18][19][20]2[21]24[22]5[23]199898.......[24]25[25]264.1.3[26][27]11998A324232741998A841256284.25$2000ABCA$20A12=+A1$222$17A$11$22100+$100=$23002$17100+$100=$1800A1PH0.202PL0.80AGoodnewsBadnewsA70%GN30%BN4-1GNBNHPGN/H=0.70PBN/H=0.30LPGN/L=0.10PBN/L=0.90PH/GN=0.64PL/GN=0.36290.90~~1PH/GNA0.971PH/GN=0.62082PL/GN=0.3792$2300W1=2300-2000/2000=0.15p1=0.6208$1800W2=1800-2000/2000=-0.10p2=0.3792E(W)=0.6208×0.15+(-0.10)×0.3792=0.05522p1[W1-E(W)]2p2[W2-E(W)]20.6208(0.15-0.0552)20.3792(-0.10-0.0552)20.0147UE(W)-0.005A2=5.52-3.675=1.845BC30520066305-12006-6-302006-3-312005-12-312005-9-302005-6-30()0.4080.1690.6350.4530.282()4.3594.013.973.783.613()9.374.2316.0111.967.8()39.1539.1539.1539.1539.15A()11.79999A()27.45----06-06-30:1.307():1393287.1935.22%06-06-30:0.455():159924.2745.01%9.37%5%PH0.55PL0.45200670%GN30%BN5-2GNBNHPGN/H=0.70PBN/H=0.30LPGN/L=0.10PBN/L=0.90PH/GN=0.9PL/GN=0.131100%-:30.37%5-1050000010000001500000200000025000000102030405060.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%5-2010000020000030000040000050000001020304050600.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.85-332020000040000060000080000010000000102030405060.00%10.00%20.00%30.00%40.00%50.00%5-46000001520056000005730.671175.3425.80%38.77%24.855.5528.78%155.260.6350.169/4.0116.01%200631.9228.420.8150.981PH/GN=0.8822PL/GN=0.118W1=0.0937p1=0.882W2=-0.05p2=0.118E(W)=0.882×0.0937+-0.05×0.118=0.07672p1[W1-E(W)]2p2[W2-E(W)]20.882(0.0937-0.0767)20.118(-0.05-0.0767)20.002UE(W)-0.005A2=7.67-0.5=7.175335-32006-6-302006-3-312005-12-312005-9-302005-6-30()0.180.090.310.260.15()2.562.582.492.452.34()6.943.4612.3310.766.51()4242424242A()15.61212121206-06-30:0.895():822886.8428.43%06-06-30:0.279():74535.6916.49%6.94%6%PH0.60PL0.40200665%GN35%BN5-4GNBNHPGN/H=0.65PBN/H=0.35LPGN/L=0.20PBN/L=0.80PH/GN=0.83PL/GN=0.173473%13%11%2%1%0%-:-:-:-:-:-:5-55-6010000020000030000040000050000005060.280.290.30.310.320.330.340.350.360.375-70200000400000600000800000100000012000001400000160000005060.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%3505000010000015000020000025000005060.00%5.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%30.00%35.00%40.00%5-80.971PH/GN=0.80512PL/GN=0.1949W1=0.0694p1=0.8051W2=-0.06p2=0.1949E(W)=0.8051×0.0694+-0.06×0.1949=0.04422p1[W1-E(W)]2p2[W2-E(W)]20.8051(0.0694-0.0442)20.1949(-0.03-0.0442)20.0016UE(W)-0.005A2=4.42-0.4=4.0257.174.0236637MBA38[1]1998622-23[2]1997[3],1997[4]:,2000[5],2006293-94[6]——199713-5[7]1998511-15[8]2004963-64[9]1998215-19[10]2001422-25[11]2119971223-25[12]2000[13]1997[14]1998[15]——2000[16]2000138-39[17]2000422-23[18]2005312-13[19]2006129-31[20]--1996(1)22-23[21]2001337-3939[22]1999429-32[23]1999741-44[24]1996133-35[25]1