房地产上市公司财务风险控制研究

西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文房地产上市公司财务风险控制研究专业：会计学硕士生：刘丹丹指导老师：王玉梅副教授摘要房地产行业是国民经济支柱产业，其关联度高，带动性强，对国民经济发展有着巨大的影响。与此同时，房地产业的发展必然会受到国家宏观经济周期性调控的影响。近几年来，令业界感受颇深的是，房地产业在20世纪90年代后期以来发展突飞猛进，逐渐成为了我国经济发展的带头产业，但同时也成为“经济过热”的源头而成为近几年国家宏观调控的目标之一。随着国家的宏观调控政策逐渐发挥效力，开发商的用地总量逐步得到了控制，用地结构也有所改善，经济适用房比例也在逐年提高，住房价格涨幅也逐渐变缓。因此可以看出房地产企业正面临着各种风险，这些危机有可能会给企业带来很多不确定的影响，其中，财务危机就显得尤为重要。所以，对房地产企业的财务风险如何进行有效的控制和防范就成为本文的主要内容。首先本文阐明了研究背景及研究意义，分析并总结了国内外对财务风险研究的经典理论及研究现状。讨论了财务风险的概念、分类和特征，接着对房地产企业财务风险的现状进行了论述，并对产生这些现状的成因进行了分析。在对财务风险的识别方法进行比较的基础上，从我国房地产上市公司中抽取了10家上市公司作为研究样本，选取23个财务指标，利用主成分分析法识别房地产企业的财务风险，借助SPSS17.0统计软件得出房地产企业财务风险的预测模型并给出预测值，并选取了一家房地产企业作为案例，对本模型进行验证以及对该公司存在的问题作出分析。该模型有助于房地产企业进行日常财务风险控制。昀后针对房地产企业中存在的问题提出了房地产企业的财务风险的控制与防范策略。关键词：房地产上市公司；财务风险；主成分分析西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文FinancialriskcontroloflistedcompanyofrealestateSpecialty:AccountingName:LiuDandanInstructor:WangYumeiAbstractRealestateasthepillarindustryofthenationaleconomy,enormouslyimpactsonnationaleconomicdevelopment.Atthesametime,thedevelopmentofrealestatemustbeaffectedbythecyclicalfluctuationsofthemacroeconomic.Inrecentyears,realestateindustrydevelopsrapidlysincethelate1990s,andbecometheleadingindustryofChina'seconomicdevelopment.Ontheotherhand,Italsobecomeoneofkeyindustrieswhichregulatedbythenationalmacroeconomicasthesourceoftheoverheatedeconomy.Underthestrongmacroeconomicregularly,thepropertymarketpoliciesfilledoneafteranother.Inresponseofthetighteningofthemajorcommercialbanks'creditpolicy,thehousingestatehadtolowitsnobleheadandreturntorationality.Developerofthetotallandiscontrolled,landusestructureisimproved,theproportionofaffordablehousinghasincreased,andthehousingpricealsograduallyrises.So,therealestatecompaniesarefacingavarietyofrisks,whicharelikelymakingsomeuncertaininfluenceonefirms.andthefinancialcrisisappearsespeciallyImportant.Therefore,howtocontrolandpreventthefinancialriskoftherealestatefirmseffectivelywillbecomethemaincontentofthepaper.Firstly,weputforwardthebackgroundandsignificanceofthepaper,analysisandsummarizetheclassicaltheoriesandcurrentstatusoffinancialriskinourcountryandabroad,discusstheconcepts,classificationsandcharacteristicsoffinancialrisk,thenanalysisthecurrentstatusoffinancialriskoftherealestatefirmsandthereasons.Secondly,weselect10companiesasthestudysamplefromrealestatelistedfirmsinourcountrywhichbasedoncomparingofthemethodoffinancialriskidentification,andselect23financialindicatorsusingprincipalcomponentanalysismethodtoidentifytherealestatecompany'sfinancialrisk.By西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文usingthesoftwareSPSS17.0,weconcludedthepredictionmodeloffinanceriskoftherealestatefirmsandgivethepredictionscore.Wealsochoosearealestatecompanyasacasetoidentifythemodelandanalysisitsownproblems.Thismodeldoesbenefitstocontrolthedailyfinancialriskfortherealestatefirms.Atlastthepaperputsforwardstrategiesforcontrollingandavoidingthefinancialriskofrealestatecompaniesaimingattheproblemsintherealestatecompanies.Keywords:listedcompanyofrealestate,financialrisk,principalcomponentanalysis西安建筑科技大学硕士学位论文I目录1绪论·························································································································11.1研究背景及意义····························································································11.1.1研究背景·····························································································11.1.2研究意义·····························································································21.2国内外文献综述····························································································31.2.1国外对财务风险的理论研究······························································31.2.2国内风险模型的理论研究·································································41.3本文的研究思路、内容及方法····································································71.3.1本文的研究思路··················································································71.3.2本文研究内容······················································································81.3.3本文的研究方法··················································································82企业财务风险理论概述·························································································112.1财务风险的定义···························································································112.2财务风险的分类···························································································122.2.1筹资风险·····························································································122.2.2投资风险····························································································122.3财务风险的特征···························································································132.3.1客观性·································································································132.3.2不确定性·····························································································132.3.3可度量性·····························································································142.3.4双重性····························