财务管理第八章课件

Chapter8StockValuationMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2013byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.KeyConceptsandSkills•Understandhowstockpricesdependonfuturedividendsanddividendgrowth•Beabletocomputestockpricesusingthedividendgrowthmodel•Understandhowcorporatedirectorsareelected•Understandhowstockmarketswork•Understandhowstockpricesarequoted8-2ChapterOutline•CommonStockValuation•SomeFeaturesofCommonandPreferredStocks•TheStockMarkets8-3CashFlowsforStockholders•Ifyoubuyashareofstock,youcanreceivecashintwowaysThecompanypaysdividendsYousellyourshares,eithertoanotherinvestorinthemarketorbacktothecompany•Aswithbonds,thepriceofthestockisthepresentvalueoftheseexpectedcashflows8-4One-PeriodExample•SupposeyouarethinkingofpurchasingthestockofMooreOil,Inc.Youexpectittopaya$2dividendinoneyear,andyoubelievethatyoucansellthestockfor$14atthattime.Ifyourequireareturnof20%oninvestmentsofthisrisk,whatisthemaximumyouwouldbewillingtopay?ComputethePVoftheexpectedcashflowsPrice=(14+2)/(1.2)=$13.33OrFV=16;I/Y=20;N=1;CPTPV=-13.338-5Two-PeriodExample•Now,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockfortwoyears?Inadditiontothedividendinoneyear,youexpectadividendof$2.10intwoyearsandastockpriceof$14.70attheendofyear2.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/(1.2)+(2.10+14.70)/(1.2)2=13.338-6Three-PeriodExample•Finally,whatifyoudecidetoholdthestockforthreeyears?Inadditiontothedividendsattheendofyears1and2,youexpecttoreceiveadividendof$2.205attheendofyear3andthestockpriceisexpectedtobe$15.435.Nowhowmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?PV=2/1.2+2.10/(1.2)2+(2.205+15.435)/(1.2)3=13.338-7DevelopingTheModel•Youcouldcontinuetopushbacktheyearinwhichyouwillsellthestock•Youwouldfindthatthepriceofthestockisreallyjustthepresentvalueofallexpectedfuturedividends•So,howcanweestimateallfuturedividendpayments?8-8EstimatingDividends:SpecialCases•ConstantdividendThefirmwillpayaconstantdividendforeverThisislikepreferredstockThepriceiscomputedusingtheperpetuityformula•ConstantdividendgrowthThefirmwillincreasethedividendbyaconstantpercenteveryperiodThepriceiscomputedusingthegrowingperpetuitymodel•SupernormalgrowthDividendgrowthisnotconsistentinitially,butsettlesdowntoconstantgrowtheventuallyThepriceiscomputedusingamultistagemodel8-9ZeroGrowth•Ifdividendsareexpectedatregularintervalsforever,thenthisisaperpetuityandthepresentvalueofexpectedfuturedividendscanbefoundusingtheperpetuityformulaP0=D/R•Supposestockisexpectedtopaya$0.50dividendeveryquarterandtherequiredreturnis10%withquarterlycompounding.Whatistheprice?P0=.50/(.1/4)=$208-10DividendGrowthModel•Dividendsareexpectedtogrowataconstantpercentperperiod.P0=D1/(1+R)+D2/(1+R)2+D3/(1+R)3+…P0=D0(1+g)/(1+R)+D0(1+g)2/(1+R)2+D0(1+g)3/(1+R)3+…•Withalittlealgebraandsomeserieswork,thisreducesto:g-RDg-Rg)1(DP1008-11DGM–Example1•SupposeBigD,Inc.,justpaidadividendof$0.50pershare.Itisexpectedtoincreaseitsdividendby2%peryear.Ifthemarketrequiresareturnof15%onassetsofthisrisk,howmuchshouldthestockbesellingfor?•P0=.50(1+.02)/(.15-.02)=$3.928-12DGM–Example2•SupposeTBPirates,Inc.,isexpectedtopaya$2dividendinoneyear.Ifthedividendisexpectedtogrowat5%peryearandtherequiredreturnis20%,whatistheprice?P0=2/(.2-.05)=$13.33Whyisn’tthe$2inthenumeratormultipliedby(1.05)inthisexample?8-13StockPriceSensitivitytoDividendGrowth,g05010015020025000.050.10.150.2GrowthRateStockPriceD1=$2;R=20%8-14StockPriceSensitivitytoRequiredReturn,R05010015020025000.050.10.150.20.250.3GrowthRateStockPriceD1=$2;g=5%8-15Example8.3GordonGrowthCompany-I•GordonGrowthCompanyisexpectedtopayadividendof$4nextperiod,anddividendsareexpectedtogrowat6%peryear.Therequiredreturnis16%.•Whatisthecurrentprice?P0=4/(.16-.06)=$40Rememberthatwealreadyhavethedividendexpectednextyear,sowedon’tmultiplythedividendby1+g8-16Example8.3–GordonGrowthCompany-II•Whatisthepriceexpectedtobeinyear4?P4=D4(1+g)/(R–g)=D5/(R–g)P4=4(1+.06)4/(.16-.06)=50.50•Whatistheimpliedreturngiventhechangeinpriceduringthefouryearperiod?50.50=40(1+return)4;return=6%PV=-40;FV=50.50;N=4;CPTI/Y=6%•Thepriceisassumedtogrowatthesamerateasthedividends8-17NonconstantGrowthExample-I•Supposeafirmisexpectedtoincreasedividendsby20%inoneyearandby15%intwoyears.Afterthat,dividendswillincreaseatarateof5%peryearindefinitely.Ifthelastdividendwas$1andtherequiredreturnis20%,whatisthepriceofthestock?•RememberthatwehavetofindthePVofallexpectedfuturedividends.8-18NonconstantGrowthExample-II•ComputethedividendsuntilgrowthlevelsoffD1=1(1.2)=$1.20D2=1.20(1.15)=$1.38D3=1.38(1.05)=$1.449•FindtheexpectedfuturepriceP2=D3/(R–g)=1.449/(.2-.05)=9.66•FindthepresentvalueoftheexpectedfuturecashflowsP0=1.20/(1.2)+(1.38+9.66)/(1.2)2=8.678-19QuickQuiz–PartI•Whatisthevalueofastockthatisexpectedtopayaconstantdividendof$2peryeariftherequiredreturnis15%?•Whatifthecompanystartsincreasingdividendsby3%peryear,beginningwiththenextdividend?Therequiredreturnstaysat15%.8-20UsingtheDGMtoFindR•StartwiththeDGM:gPDgPg)1(DRg-RDg-Rg)1(DP01001008-21Example:FindingtheRequiredReturn•Supposeafirm’sstockissellingfor$10.50.Itjustpaida$1dividend,anddividendsar