库兹涅茨假说可以解释中国的收入差距变化吗

20103[]2009-12-12[]李实(1956),男,山东博兴人,北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院教授;李婷(1980),女,江苏南通人,南京信息工程大学公共管理学院讲师,,李实1,李婷2(1北京师范大学,北京100875;2南京信息工程大学,南京210044)[]本文利用中国的数据对经济增长与收入分配的关系进行了经验分析分析结果没有对库茨涅兹的倒U型假说!给予足够的支持中国农村内部城镇内部和城乡之间的收入差距及其变化特点有其自身的特点,需要从经济发展因素经济体制转型的因素和政策因素上加以解释[]收入差距;基尼系数;库茨涅兹假说[]F1247[]A[]1000596X(2010)03000506,2050,∀(SimonKuznets)#∃[1],20,,!(younger)!,U![1],,[2][3][4]U!,,,,[5]!520103,,,,U,,,?,?,2090,,(Ahluwalia)60(14,40,6),,[6],:U!,,(DeiningerandSquire),,,,,,(80%),,,,10%,,,,,[7](ChenandRavallion)67,42422080(),,,,,,,[8],,,,120051%,20051%,,(UNEM)(MIGR)(MIGR2),,:Ii=b0+b1logYi+b2(logYi)2+b3UNEMi+b4MIGRi+b5MIGR2i+b6MYRi+ei(1),Iii;logYi(logYi)2i;UNEMii;MIGRiMIGR2ii;620103MYRii;ei;b0,b1,b2,b3,b4,b5,b61:被解释变量:基尼系数模型1模型2模型3模型4模型5b0220***(328)095*(170)204***(306)075(135)4205***(-357)b1-054***(-272)-025(-153)-048**(-238)-017(-105)-119***(-357)b2004***(270)002*(189)003**(222)002(125)009***(367)b3079***(1286)079***(1315)078***(130)b4018***(330)016***(356)020***(443)b5-019**(241)-015**(232)-020***(-307)b6002**(255)Adj-R200160336004903690401城市样本量344344344344342说明:收入指标是个人的劳动收入,城市的基尼系数是根据个人的劳动收入计算的;外来劳动力的确定是根据其户口所在地是否与其居住地相一致原则;失业率是被调查失业劳动力占全部劳动力的比率系数估计值上的***,**,*分别表示该估计值是在1%,5%和10%的统计水平上显著资料来源:根据2005年全国1%人口抽样调查数据进行的估计结果,1,5,,(logYi)((logYi)2),1,,U2~5,2,,,,344,78%,1,083,,,,,,,?,,30?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,()2080,60%,198002320050382080,720103,,,,2080,,,,,,,,,,,2090,[9],:,,[10],2090,,,,,,,,,,,2090,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(2),,,,,,1978016,,/,,,,,,,,2090,,,,,!,,,,,,820103%,19783061997490(#(2008)∃,45),,102,6000~7000,3000,,19781991,111991,1996,35,200237(3)(1978),26,272080,,2080,,!,,,,2080,2003,,,[11],,198837%,199541%,200246%,2080?,,??,,GDP,GDP,,,!21,,,!,,%,,(),,,,,,,,,,:,;,,,,,,,920103U!,,,,,,,[1]SimonKuznetsEconomicGrowthandIncomeInequality[J]AmericanEconomicReview,1955,(45)[2]李实中国经济发展中的收入分配[A]中国留美经济学会,中国经济论坛编委会效率公平与深化改革开放[C]北京:北京大学出版社,1993[3]王小鲁,樊纲中国收入差距的走势和影响因素分析[J]经济研究,2005,(10)[4]蔡昉全球化怎样惠及普通劳动者中国经济发展转折点上的政策选择[Z]中国权威经济论文库,2006[5]赵人伟,李实中国居民收入差距的扩大及其原因[J]经济研究,1997,(9)[6]MAhluwaliaIncomeDistributionandDevelopment:SomeStylizedFacts[J]TheAmericanEconomicReview,1976,66(2)[7]KlausDeninger,LynSquireNewWaysofLookingatOldIssues:InequalityandGrowth[J]JournalofDevelopmentEconomics,1998,(57)[8]ShaohuaChen,MartinRavallionHowhavetheWorldsPoorestFaredsincetheEarly1980s?[Z]DiscussionPaper,WPS3341,WorldBank,2004[9]FangCai,DewenWangMigrationasMarketization:WhatCanWeLearnfromChinaS2000CensusData?![J]TheChinaReview,2003,3(2)[10]李实,赵人伟中国居民收入分配再研究[J]经济研究,1999,(4)[11]TerrySicular,XimingYue,BjornGustafsson,ShiLiTheUrbanRuralIncomeGapandInequalityinChina[J]ReviewofIncomeandWealth,2007,53(1)(:)CANKUZNETZHYPOTHESISEXPLAINCHANGESININCOMEINEQUALITYINCHINALIShi1,LITing2(1SchoolofEconomicsandBusinessAdministration,BeijingNormalUniversity,Beijing100875,China;2SchoolofPublicAdministration,NanjingUniversityofInformationScienceandTechnology,Nanjing210044,China)Abstract:Thepaperusingthedatafromthe1%nationalpopulationsurvey2005conductsempiricalanalysisontherelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandincomeinequalityTheresultsdonotsufficientlysupportKuznetshypothesisofInvertedUShape!followedbychangesinincomeinequalityThepaperprovidesexplanationsforrisingincomeinequalityinurbanandruralareasandbetweenurbanandruralareasfromaspectsofeconomicdevelopment,economictransitionandpublicpolicyKeywords:incomeinequality;Ginicoefficient;Kuznetzhypothesis10