资本流动自由化

115691012151825262921997903IMF4IMFABSTRACTCapitalliberalizationistheimportantpartoftheEconomyGlobalization.Whilethefinancialcrisesoccurredinthedevelopingcountriesfrequently,especiallytheoneoccurredinAsiain1997,capitalliberalizationbecamethe5cynosureofthediscussionintheoreticalfield.SoIchoseKoreaThailandMalaysiaPhilippinesandIndonesiawhicharesimilartoChinainsocialbackgroundculturalcustomandcustomerhabitandwhichsufferedheavylossesintheAsianfinancialcrisisasstudy.Ianalyzedproblemsandmethodsofcapitalliberalizationindevelopingcountries.Foursectionsareincludedinthisarticle:Section1introducedtheunavoidablityofcapitalliberalization.FirstIgavethedefinitionofcapitalliberalization.ThenIsummarizedbrieflythedevelopmentofcapitalliberalizationindevelopingcountriesafterWorldWar.Onthebaseofthese,Ipointedoutthatcapitalliberalizationwasthegeneraltrendandtheembodimentofthedevelopmentofmarketeconomy.Anycountrywhichwantedtodevelopwouldnotisolateitselffromglobalcapitalmarket.Inmyopinion,thepointthatdevelopingcountriesshouldn’topentheircapitalaccountbeforetheycompleteddomesticreformwaswrong.Section2discussedtheconditionthatdomesticeconomicreformoftheEastAsiacountriesdidn’tadapttocapitalliberalization.Fortheeconomicstructure,theEastAsiacountriestakeexport-pilotmodel.Inthe1990’sthelaborcostsuperiorityofthismodelbeingchallengedbythecountriesofthesamestrategyandknowledgeeconomyhadn’tbeenobvious.Butthesecountriescontinuedtobackenterprises’expansionofquantityofinvestmentwithoutadjustingindustrialstructureontime.Unbalanceofinternationalpaymentresultedfromunbalanceoftradestructurestimulatedthesecountriestoabsorbforeigncapitalincludingalotofspeculativecapital.Asaresult,theforeigncapitalswasinvestinhigh-risksectorsandnationaleconomyexcessivelylayonforeigncapitalandtheirexportabilitydeclined.Thiswasabadrecycle.Fortheexchangeratesystem,theEastAsiacountriescontinuedtoaimatdollarafterconductingcapitalliberalization.Thisrootedintheircurrency6washighlyassessedwhichgaveinternationalspeculatorlargeroomofinvestmentarbitrage.Forthefinancialsupervisionsystem,plentyofcapitalwasinvestedinthehouseandstockmarketthatwaseasytoproducebubbles.Sogovernmentmustdesignsystemstructureadjustingtoopennessbefore(oratthesametime)thecapitalaccountwasopened.ButtheEastAsiagovernmentshowedtheunstablenessofthelawmakingincomplementionoftheinformationexposuresystemandthesettlementsystemwhichresultedinunadjustmentbetweentechnicalinnovationandsystematicinnovationthatexpandedspeculationriskwhenthesecountriesincreasedspeedofopeningcapitalaccount.Inthefinancialsystemwhichwasbankmostly,theinsufficientmentandasymmetricinformationexcessiveprotectionandinterventionbygovernmentimpairedrestrictionofbankloanandstrengthenedriskstimulationandmoralhazardoffinancialinstitution.Thus,theexpandedloansafterforeigncapitalflowwereinvestedinnon-tradedepartmentswithhighriskortheenterpriseswithbadcredit.Theseweretheclausewhyunhealthyclaimandfinancialinstabilityincreased.Section3analyzedunequalfootingofdevelopingcountriesintheinternationalfinancialsystem.CompetitionintheideologicalamongcountrieshadturntocompetitionintheeconomicafterColdWar.Americabecamethedesignerandsupervisorofthegamerule,whiledevelopingcountriesbecameacceptorofthegamerule.Inthissystem,monetarypolicyofdevelopingcountrieswasaffectedbyAmericanmonetarypolicybecausetheyhadtheircurrencyconnectwithoraimatdollar.Ononehand,AmericamaintainedinternationalsystemlackofinternationalsupervisionsoastogainprofitbecauseofitsabsoluteandoppositesuperioritybywhichAmericacouldbeatitsopponentandexpanditsfield.Onetheotherhard,thereasonthatIMFwhichactedbyAmericahelponeinwhichcrisisoccurredwas7mainlytoprotectdevelopedcountriesasclaimer,resultinginmoralhazardoftheinternationalloans.Furthermore,IMF’shelpwasnottosolvecrisisbuttocontrolmacroeconomicpolicyoftheacceptor.Intheinternationalfinancialsystemfullofstrongright,developingcountrieswouldn’tescapeillfortune.ThelastsectionraisedsomethoughtsabouteconomicreformoftheEastAsiacountries.Ithoughtthatthemaincausewhysystematicinnovationwaslowerthantechnicalinnovationlayintortureofinnovationabilityofeconomicsystem.Whichwascausedbytheundefinitivenessofpropertyrightandtoomuchprotectionofgovernment.SotheEastAsiacountriesmustincreasethespeedofsystematicinnovation.Butforthem,thesmallestgovernmentwasnotthebestgovernment.Itshouldbethelinkbetweeneffectivegovernmentandhealthymarket.ItshouldimproveGovernmentGuiltyandchangethefunctionofgovernment.Atthesametime,becauseunequalinternationalfinancialsystemwouldnotchange,sodevelopingcountriesshouldseekforthesameprofitasdevelopedcountriesandstrengtheninternationalcooperationandcoordinationsothatitbecomeoneofpolesintheworldandkeepfinancialstability.Finally,IraisedsomesuggestionaboutreformofChina.Fortoday’sChina,itmustsolvesystematicriskandreformpropertyrightsystemfirstly.Italsoincreaseopennessofcapitalaccountbecausetoohighpercentofforeigndirectinvestmenthadchallengeditseconomicrightandthequantityofcapitalexportwastoolargetosatisfytheneedofitseconomicdevelopment.819979101112131415161718