钢铁类外文文献

ResourcesPolicy26(2000)171–178:recentdevelopmentsandprospectsqYanruiWu*DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofWesternAustralia,NedlandsWA6907,AustraliaAbstractThispaperpresentsanoverviewofsomeofthekeyissuesassociatedwiththedevelopmentofthesteelindustryinChina.ItisfoundthatmajorinstitutionalchangeshavetakenplaceintheChinesesteelindustry.Thesechangeshaveimportantimplicationsforsteelproduction,consumptionandtradeinChina.Accordingtothisstudy,China’ssteelproductionwillcontinuetoexpandinthecomingdecadethoughtherearepotentialuncertainties.Demand,thedrivingforcesbehindChina’ssteelexpansion,ispredictedtogrowtoo.Inparticular,demandforsteelwillbeboostedsignificantlyifseveralfrontierareasaretappedinto.Chinawillbethelargeststeelconsumerintheworld.Asaresult,Chinawillplayanincreasinglymoreimportantroleininternationalsteeltrade.Thispresentschallengesaswellasopportunitiesfortheglobalsteelindustry.2000ElsevierScienceLtd.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:China;Steelindustry;Steelproductionandtrade;DemandforsteelIntroductionChinahasachievedanaverageannualgrowthrateof9.6%duringthepasttwodecades(1978–1999).1Thiscontinuinggrowthisindeedspectacular.Adirecteffectofsuchgrowthistheburgeoningdemandforrawmaterialssuchassteel.InthepastdecadeChina’ssteelconsumptionandproductionhaveexpandedsignifi-cantly.ChinaovertookJapanandbecamethelargeststeelproducerintheworldin1996.In1999,China’sproductionofcrudesteelamountedto124milliontonnes.2ApparentconsumptionofsteelproductsinChinagrewfrom49.8milliontonnesin1985to105.9milliontonnesin1998(Table1).Asaresult,China’sshareofworldsteelconsumptionincreasedfrom5.7%in1985to15.3%in1998whileitsshareofworldsteelqThispaperisbasedonareportpreparedfortheWA–ChinaEcon-omicandTechnicalResearchFund(WACETRF).Theauthoracknowl-edgesWACETRF,HamersleyIron,BHPIronOre,HopeDownsMan-agementServicesandRobeRiverIronforgenerousfinancialsupport,theAsiaResearchCentre(MurdochUniversity)andCiscaSpencerforcoordinatingandmanagingtheoriginalproject,ananonymousrefereeandtheeditoroftheJournalforveryhelpfulcomments.*Tel.:[phone];fax:[phone].E-mailaddress:[e-mail](Y.Wu).1ThisisGDPgrowthratecalculatedfromtheStateStatisticalBureau(variousissues).2AccordingtoPeople’sDailyOnline,February29,2000.0301-4207/00/$-seefrontmatter2000ElsevierScienceLtd.Allrightsreserved.PII:S0301-4207(00)00026-XTable1China’ssteelproductionandconsumptionProduction%ofworldConsumption%ofworldmtsatotalmtsatotal198546.86.549.85.7b199066.48.50.96.6199595.413.0100.715.41996101.213.5102.815.71997108.913.7105.015.11998114.514.7105.915.3Sources:SAMI(1999)andInternationalIronandSteelInstituteonlinedatabases.amtsstandsformilliontonnes.bSharesofapparentconsumptionofcrudesteelin1984,estimatedbyusingInternationalIronandSteelInstitutedata.productionexpandedfrom6.5%in1985to13.7%in1998.AcorollaryofthisgrowthisChina’sincreasingdemandforironoreimports.Chinaimported55and51milliontonnesofironorein1997and1998,respect-ively.ItisnowthesecondlargestbuyerbehindJapan.Chinahasbecomesuchasteelgiantthatchangesinitssteelsectorwillhaveimportantimpactsonglobalpro-ductionandtrade.TheobjectiveofthispaperistopresentasurveyofsomeofthekeyissuesassociatedwiththedevelopmentintheChinesesteelindustry.Therestofthepaperbegins172Y.Wu/ResourcesPolicy26(2000)171–178withabriefreviewoftheinstitutionalchangesthathavetakenplaceinthesteelsectorrecently(2ndsection).Itthendescribesthesituationsofsteelproductionandtech-nologyinChina(3rdsection).ThefourthsectionbrieflydiscussestheprofitabilityandefficiencyinChina’ssteelsector.Thisisfollowedbyanalysesofsteelconsumption(5thsection)andChina’sroleininternationalsteeltrade(6thsection).TheoutlookforsteeldemandinChinaispresentedinthepenultimatesection.Finally,thecon-cludingsectionsummarisesthemainfindings.InstitutionaldevelopmentThesteelindustryhasforalongtimeplayedanimportantroleinthedevelopmentoftheChineseecon-omy.Since1980,grossoutputinthisindustryhasbeengrowingattheaveragerateof11.8%perannum.In1996,theindustrystillhadaworkforceof3.3millionofwhom1.3millionwereengagedincoresteel-makingandrecordedavalue-addedoutputof88.6billionyuan(about$US11billion)(EditorialBoard,1998,p.72).GrowthinthesteelsectorislargelyattributedtoChina’sindustrialpolicywhichhasfordecadesfavouredthedevelopmentofheavyindustry.However,thesteelindustryhasundergonethroughdramaticchangesoverthepasttwodecades.Asaresultofthesechanges,theproductionandownershipstructureoftheindustryinthe1990shaschangeddramatically.Stateownershipusedtodominateoverwhelminglyinthesteelsector.Thestatesectorconstitutestheso-called‘key’and‘local’enterprises.Thekeyenterprisesaredirectlysupervisedbythecentralgovernment,throughitsformerMinistryofMetallurgicalIndustry,andlocalenterprisesbytheprovincialgovernmentsortheiragencies.In1998,theoutputshareofcrudesteelproducedbythekeyenterprisesaccountedfor62%ofthenationaltotalandoutputsharebythelocalenterprisesfor33%(Table2).Sincethelate1970s,non-stateownershiphasbeenencouraged.Asaresult,thenon-statesectorwiththeexceptionofcrudesteelproduc