市场细分与城市住宅特征价格分析

36220063()JournalofZhejiangUniversity(HumanitiesandSocialSciences)Vol.36,No.2Mar.2006[]20050912[][](05CJY017);(N04GL06)[]1.(1975),,,,;2.(1962),,,,,,(,310027)[],,2473290,,18,Chow,,,;8,,CBD[];;[]F290;TU976[]A[]1008942X(2006)02015507,(hedonicpricemodel),,,,,,,,,,,,,[1]83[2]94,,()Straszheim1974,[3],,,,,,,[4]134,,,,,,,,[5]30,,,,,,GIS,,,:8,88(,,),,,1404,791,,()():Chow,,12nn1n2,123,k,(2)(3),,,,(1),,ChowChowF,Fk,(n1+n22k)F,[6]143Chow:23,FF,,()FF,,:23,()20031120037314063,,,2473,651()36,,,20036302003818290,CBD,,CBD,(),,,,,1521,18[7]5359:7,;7:;3:CBD;1:1:1()()+(,20031)-:1,0+5:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)+():1,0+:1,0+,5:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)+,5:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)+,5:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)+,1,5+1000,1,5+1000,1,3+:1000,1,0+CBD()-()-500()+,17+()7512,:,,,,,(OLS)SPSS(Enter),18,(VIF)2,5F0.001,,R2,580%,DW2,,VIF10,,5,,,2BBetaBBetaBBetaBBetaBBeta15.08233316.08733320.36231.9847.4743330.5943330.8330.5293330.8500.6713330.7420.5713330.7580.5603330.8663.324E030.0063.899E030.0092.5963330.1230.7583330.0821.762E030.0170.2693330.0290.5353330.0410.7293330.1020.276330.0320.1343330.0276.1013330.0484.6763330.0445.402330.0468.12330.0670.1370.0035.5283330.0368.1203330.07325.9143330.0656.666330.0480.4620.0051.1663330.0081.4230.0133.3660.0240.6760.0040.3080.0071.2120.0461.4863330.0702.2763330.0831.5233330.0570.7183330.0741.7583330.0410.2230.0074.5093330.0921.474330.0310.8723330.0651.9633330.0671.8823330.0802.978330.0662.107330.0570.435330.0380.9243330.0441.3343330.0770.9380.0280.72230.0390.6563330.0531.32830.0160.6630.0105.821330.0561.1680.0120.1760.0077.689E020.0022.3173330.0654.083330.0540.1500.0030.8653330.0520.6260.0130.2400.0073.619330.0560.9380.0180.9113330.0571.61330.0202.8003330.04516.6343330.1766.6393330.0842.8433330.077CBD1.1223330.0590.580330.0372.9983330.1521.6223330.0850.6833330.0823.6243330.1543.3943330.1784.9823330.2094.7333330.1892.8653330.3550.5063330.0560.11130.0161.3143330.1050.6743330.0660.1283330.0470.5203330.0220.5133330.0291.06530.0360.4840.0190.5373330.073R20.8510.8670.8210.8080.895F787.431333718.668333124.710333329.925333373.375333DW1.9912.0071.9272.0142.025:3331%,335%,310%(),,ChowF,F45.12;,F851()361415F,FF,,,,(),,R2,01851,01867,0.821,0.808,01895,,,;,,,,,,,,(),,10%,14,13,16,13,2,CBD8,,,,,1998,,(),,9.60,11.31,2.71,,,,,(),2,,,,0.529/,0.671/CBD,(),CBD,,CBD,,CBD,(),,(Beta),,9512,:,3,,,CBD311111451110612136913610516107688597137339812841191410712101181381544CBD4113332222251357111212146,,,,Chow,,,,,(),,,,[][1]ADAIRAS,BERRYJN,MCGREAWS.HedonicModeling,HousingSubmarketsandResidentialValuation[J].JournalofPropertyResearch,1996,13:6783.[2]FLETCHERM,GALLIMOREP,MANGANJ.HeteroskedasticityinHedonicHousePriceModels[J].JournalofPropertyResearch,2000,17(2):93108.[3]STRASZHEIMMR.AnEconometricAnalysisoftheUrbanHousingMarket[M].NewYork:NationalBureauofEconomicResearch,1975.061()36[4]LANCASTERKJ.ANewApproachtoConsumerTheory[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1966,74(2):132157.[5]MICHAESLRG,SMITHVK.MarketSegmentationandValuingAmenitieswithHedonicsModels:TheCaseofHazardousWasteSites[J].JournalofUrbanEconomics,1990,28:223242.[6].[M].:,2000.[7].:[M].:,2005.MarketSegmentandHedonicPriceAnalysisofUrbanHousingWENHai2zhen,JIASheng2hua(CenterforRealEstate,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310027,China)Abstract:Fromthepointofhousinghedonicprice,aresearchismadeandmethodsputforwardinthispapertoexamineandanalyzethehousingsub2market.ThefiveolddistrictsofShangcheng,Xiacheng,Gongshu,JiangganandXihuaretakenastheresearchtargets.AllareintheurbanareaoftheHangzhoucity.Throughasurveyof290housingcommunities,2473effectivesamplesarecollectedfromrealestateagents.ThetimespansfromJanuary1,2003toJuly31,2003.Reviewsofhowtoselectcharacteristicvariablesindicatethathousingcharacteristicscanbedividedintothreecategories:structuralcharacteristic,neighborhoodcharacteristicandlocationcharacteristic.21individualsand18housingcharacteristicsarechosenasmodelindependentvariables.Amongthemtherearesevenstructuralcharacteristicvariables:Flooracreage,Housingage,Orientation,Decorationdegree,Housingfloor,Garageandparkingspace,Attic;sevenneighborhoodcharacteristicvariables:Naturalenvironment,Innerenvironment,Communitymanagement,Nearbyuniversity,Lifeestablishment,Educationestablishment,Recreationandsportsfacility;threelocationcharacteristicvariables:DistancetoCBD,DistancetoWestLake,Trafficcondition;andoneadditionalcharacteristicvariable:Timefactor.ThehousingmarketofHangzhoucityissubdividedaccordingtoconstructiontypesandpropertyright.Hedonicpricemodelsaresetupforthewholemarketandsub2markets.ChowTestshowsthatsub2marketmodelsareremarkablydifferent,andthesetwokindsofmarketsegmentationmethodsarerational.Researchresultsalsoindicatethatmarketsegmentsdonotleadtotheimprovementofmodelfitnessperformance.Influencingfactorsaredifferentamongsub2markets,andhousecharacteristicshavedifferentdegreesofinfluenceonthehousingprice.Theeighthousingcharacteristics(Flooracreage,Housingfloor,Decorationdegree,Innerenvironment,Lifeestablishment,DistancetoCBD,DistancetoWestLake,Trafficcondition)haveremarkableinfluenceonthewholemark