农村金融服务条件下资金流与经济增长的相关性分析

20093()Mar.,2009382JournalofShaanxiNormalUniversity(PhilosophyandSocialSciencesEdition)Vo.l38No.2裴辉儒(,110036):VAR,,;,,,,;;,:;;;:F320:A:1672-4283(2009)02-0106-07:2008-06-18:(07BJY169);211(884071):,,,,,,,,,,,,+!+!+!,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2070,,106,,,,,;(Diamend)(Krugman),,,;,,,,,,,,,(Long)1951∀1952;(Iqbal)1970∀1971;(Burgess)(Pande)1961∀2000,,,(Hesser)(Schun)(Panni)(Ghatak)(Lins)(Nagarajan)(Hushak)(Kochar)(BaliSwain),OLS,(Goldsmith),(Mohsin)(Abdelhak),,,[1],,,,[2][3-4][5][6],,,,;[7],,[8],[9],,,,,,(Greenwood),[10],,,,VAR,,(),,:,,107GDP,RGDPGDPGDP(Heston),GDPGDP,GDP,,GDP:;:::,,,()1978∀2007,GDP#∃(1981∀2008),#∃(1990∀2008)#∃(1983∀2007)#(1988)∃,#(2003)∃#(1949∀1999)∃#∃(1981∀2008)()1978∀2007,1YX1X2X3X4X5X6X7,212,(Granger),[11],Granger,X1-X7Y,95%,:0.000990.000510.004760.006120.000210.001720.00042,YX1-X7,:0.08010.07460.998760.05340.343110.80610.48908GrangerVAR108()VARAICSCLR,2,2,VAR(2)JBLMWhite,,,R20.875-0.998VAR(2),VAR(2),VAR(2),()3GDPa.GDP;b.GDP;c.GDP;d.GDP;e.GDP;.fGDP;g.GDP3,(1)2GDP,5,,GDP;,,,,(2)3GDP,5,,(3)3109GDP,GDP,GDP(4)3GDP,5,,,,,(5)GDP,(6)2GDP,5,,,(7)GDPGDP,,,,,,,++()2log(Y)PeriodS.E.log(Y)log(X1)log(X2)log(X3)log(X4)log(X5)log(X6)log(X7)10.040100000000020.09689.9326.6380.0380.0710.4490.0812.7850.00530.15372.87721.0750.4170.1771.4490.1893.8090.00540.21457.85231.0891.6370.2954.8140.1334.1720.00650.27248.37835.7133.4330.3917.1310.0834.8610.01260.31941.90538.4835.4450.5258.6090.0694.9400.02370.35538.37039.9816.6330.6219.6980.0684.5950.03380.38136.81640.9316.7620.63910.2530.0594.5060.03490.40336.06941.6056.6140.65010.3800.0554.5910.033100.42235.57141.8876.6380.69610.5110.0614.5990.0372,,40%,37%,6%∀7%,0.6%,10%,0.05%,4.6%,0.03%,GDP,,,,,,2004,,,,,,:;,,,,,,,,,,,,3%1-4%1,,,,,,,,,110,,,:,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,!,,,;,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,2,,;,,,;,,;,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,111,,:;;;,,3000-5000,,:,;,,;;,,;,,,,,,+!+!+!+!+!,,,!![][1].[J].,1999(10).[2],,.[J].,2005(9).[3],,,.[J]..1989(10).[4],,.[J]..2002(8).[5],,.[J].,2002(2).[6],.:[J].,2005(1).[7].[D].,2006.[8],.[J].,2007(11).[9].[J].:,2007(1).[10]GREENWOOD,JEREMY,BOYANJOVANOVIC.FinancialDevelopment,Growth,andtheDistributionofIncome[J].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990(5).[11].[J].,2006(1).[]TheCorrelationAnalysisofCapitalFlowandEconomicGrowthUndertheConditionsofFinancialServicesinRuralAreasPEIHuiru(CollegeofEconomics,LiaoningUniversity,Shenyang110036,Liaoning)Abstract:Theruraleconomicdevelopmentisinseparablefromthestrongsupportofcapitalflow.Sourceofcapitalflowinruralareasincludingagriculturetheiroutputs,financialinvestmen,tfinancialservicesthreeaspects.Chinas'ruralareasthroughtheestablishmentofcapitalflowandeconomicgrowthrelationsVARmodelofinteractionbetweenthetwoverificationrevealedthatinruralareastopromoteeconomicgrowthimpetuscamemainlyfromruralfinanceandagriculturalconsumptiondepositmechanisms,suchastheirownblood,agriculturecontributedtothefinancialservicesystemisveryfragile,leadingtotheslowdevelopmentofruralindustries,householdswithlowerincomegrowth.Sowemusttakethefollowingcountermeasures:toconsolidateandstrengthentheexistingfinancialinstitutionstheresultsofagriculture,andactivelyexplorenewformsofruralfinancialservices;tostrengthenandimprovethefarmers'creditratingsystem;tobreakmonopolyandgovernmentguarantees,theestablishmentofefficientagriculturalfinanceriskcontrolmode.KeyWords:financialservicesinruralareas;farmersincomeandexpenditure;financialrevenueandexpenditureinagriculture;economicgrowth112