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111.PracticalProblemsinCapitalBudgeting(I)PrinciplesofCorporateFinanceSeventhEditionRichardA.BrealeyStewartC.MyersSlidesbyMatthewWillSlidesEditedbyMinggaoShen11-2McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedTopicsCoveredŠSensitivityAnalysisŠBreakEvenAnalysisŠMonteCarloSimulationŠDecisionTrees11-3McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedHowToHandleUncertaintySensitivityAnalysis-Analysisoftheeffectsofchangesinsales,costs,etc.onaproject.ScenarioAnalysis-Projectanalysisgivenaparticularcombinationofassumptions.SimulationAnalysis-Estimationoftheprobabilitiesofdifferentpossibleoutcomes.BreakEvenAnalysis-Analysisofthelevelofsales(orothervariable)atwhichthecompanybreakseven.11-4McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedSensitivityAnalysisExampleGiventheexpectedcashflowforecastsforOtobaiCompany’sMotorScooterproject,listedonthenextslide,determinetheNPVoftheprojectgivenchangesinthecashflowcomponentsusinga10%costofcapital.Assumethatallvariablesremainconstant,excepttheoneyouarechanging.11-5McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedSensitivityAnalysis315-FlowCashNet3.0flowcashOperating1.5aftertaxProfit1.550%@.Taxes3profitPretax1.5onDepreciati3CostsFixed30CostsVariable37.5Sales15-Investment10-1Years0YearExample-continuedNPV=3.43billionYen11-6McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedSensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedPossibleOutcomesbil2bil3bil4CostFixed275,000300,000360,000CostVarUnit380,000375,000350,000priceUnit.16.1.04ShareMarketmil1.1mil51mil.9SizeMarketOptimisticExpectedcPessimistiVariableRange211-7McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedSensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedNPVCalculationsforOptimisticMarketSizeScenarioNPV=+5.7bilyen3.3815-FlowCashNet3.38flowcashOperating1.88aftertaxProfit1.8850%@.Taxes3.75profitPretax1.5onDepreciati3CostsFixed33CostsVariable41.25Sales15-Investment10-1Years0Year+11-8McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedSensitivityAnalysisExample-continuedNPVPossibilities(BillionsYen)6.53.40.4CostFixed11.13.415.0-CostVarUnit5.03.44.2-priceUnit17.33.410.4-ShareMarket5.73.41.1SizeMarketOptimisticExpectedcPessimistiVariableRange11-9McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedBreakEvenAnalysisŠPointatwhichtheNPV=0isthebreakevenpointŠOtobaiMotorshasabreakevenpointof85,000unitssold.Sales,000’sPV(Yen)Billions40020019.685200BreakevenNPV=0PVInflowsPVOutflows11-10McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedMonteCarloSimulationŠStep1:ModelingtheProjectŠStep2:SpecifyingProbabilitiesŠStep3:SimulatetheCashFlowsModelingProcess11-11McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTreesTheOptiontoExpandTheOptiontoAbandon11-12McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=?-250NPV=?-1500orTurbopropPiston311-13McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=?-250NPV=?-1500or812456660364148TurbopropPiston11-14McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)-550NPV=?-250NPV=?-1500or812456660364148()()81220.22080.960=×+×TurbopropPiston11-15McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)-550NPV=?-250NPV=?-1500or812456660364148+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)*45033145015010.1660=−TurbopropPiston11-16McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)-550NPV=?-250NPV=?-1500or812456660364148+150(.6)+30(.4)+100(.6)+50(.4)NPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55*45033118.88815010.1812=+TurbopropPiston11-17McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)812456660364148+150(.6)710.73+30(.4)+100(.6)403.82+50(.4)-1500*450331orNPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.55-550NPV=?-250NPV=?()()40.55.44460.18.888×+×=TurbopropPiston11-18McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.AllrightsreservedDecisionTrees960(.8)220(.2)930(.4)140(.6)800(.8)100(.2)410(.8)180(.2)220(.4)100(.6)812456660364148+150(.6)710.73+30(.4)+100(.6)403.82+50(.4)-550NPV=96.12-250NPV=117.00-1500*450331orNPV=444.55NPV=888.18NPV=550.00NPV=184.5512.9655010.173.710=−TurbopropPiston411-19McGrawHill/IrwinCopyright©2003byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allright