农村金融发展促进农村经济增长了吗_

20093ECONOMICREVIEWNo.32009?3:,,,,,,,:,,(GreenwoodandJovanovic,1990;KingandLevine,1993;BerthelemyandVaroudakis,1995;Levine,1997;Shabbir,1997;Bandieraetal.,2000;CarranzaandGaldon-Sanchez,2004),(1)KingLevine(1993),801960-1989,,Shabbir(1997)Fan(2005)1992-2004Seetanah(2007)1952-2004,EitaJordaan(2007)1977-2006,GrangerVEC,,,(1999)()(2),DemetriadesHussein(1996)16,ShanMorris(2002)19(OECD),BoulilaTrabelsi(2004)1960-2002,(3)Zubi(2006)111980-2001,Levine(1997),HarichandraThangavelu(2004)VAROECD(),Moustain(2004)1970-2000Granger,163,,:430070,:[e-mail];,,:430071;,,:430070,(2002)1952-1999,,(2004),2090,,,,?2003:(2003)(2006)(2007),,,,,,:,;,;;()1.(grp)(incom),(grpgrincomgr);,(eocstru);(inves)(consu),(invesr)(consur),,,,,,2.,,,(Khan,2000)(),,,KingLevine(1993)4,,M2GDPLevineZervos(1998)(M2/GDP),,,,(fir)(deploar),;KingLevine(1993),,,,(),1978-2006261.()()()(1952-1996)()()2.,,(grp)(incom)(eocstru)(inves)(consu)(fir)(deploar),,5:40.50.6,0.95,(grpgr)(incomgr)(eocstru)(invesr)(consur)(fir)(deploar),,grpgrincomgr0.7127,0.10.3,0.4396,grpgrincomgrincomgr,,,,(),,DickeyFuller(1981)ADF,11ADF(c,t,k)()pD.W.incomgr-3.859033(c,t,2)-3.5950(5%)0.02921.8458eocstru-3.738933(c,t,0)-3.5806(5%)0.03611.8911invesr-2.8211(c,t,1)-3.2292(10%)0.20232.0278invesr-7.001333(0,0,1)-2.6607(1%)0.00001.9574consur-3.372333(0,0,0)-2.6501(1%)0.00152.0048fir-1.8725(c,t,0)-3.2253(10%)0.64171.6291fir-4.449333(0,0,0)-2.6534(1%)0.00011.9393deploar-2.2482(c,t,0)-3.2253(10%)0.44651.9465deploar-5.861333(0,0,0)-2.6534(1%)0.00001.9994lnincomgr-3.661933(c,t,2)-3.5950(5%)0.04372.1653lneocstru-3.990733(c,t,0)-3.5806(5%)0.0211.7923lninvesr-3.418133(c,t,1)-3.5875(5%)0.06992.1678lnconsur-2.1215(c,t,0)-3.2253(10%)0.51221.7329lnconsur-3.903333(0,0,0)-2.6501(1%)0.00041.7028lnfir-2.2310(c,t,0)-3.2253(10%)0.45531.9432lnfir-5.516333(0,0,0)-2.6534(1%)0.00001.9406lndeploar-2.780129(c,t,0)-3.2253(10%)0.21551.9763lndeploar-6.489333(0,0,0)-2.6534(1%)0.00002.0554:(1)ctkADF(AICSC)(2)k,Durbin-Watson,D.W.(3)333335%1%1978-2006,,I(1);36I(1),(),,(OLS),,,,2(3.1)(3.2)(3.3),,VARJohansen-Juselius2(3.4),2incomgr(3.1)eocstru(3.2)consur(3.3)invesr(3.4)fir-1.3593(0.4877)-0.3889(0.4438)0.4176(0.2784)fir0.7746(0.065)deploar0.3458(0.1417)0.0812(0.1342)-0.1011(0.0808)deploar0.0611(0.0229)C12.6063(2.9958)15.7040(1.6188)-125.737(550.2697)C-7.6392AR(1)0.6581(0.1546)0.4436(0.1864)0.9889(0.0331)R-squared0.61060.24030.9753Durbin-Watsonstat1.89022.02231.9744F-statistic12.02442.4258303.0789Prob(F-statistic)0.00010.09150:,(3.1)(3.2)(3.3),D.W.AR(1),(3.2)(3.3)firdeploar,(3.1),(t-2.772.44),fir,,1,1.36;deploar,,1,0.35(3.4),,1,0.06,AR(1),,3lnincomgr(3.5)lneocstru(3.6)lninvesr(3.7)lnconsur(3.8)lnfir-3.7218(1.2529)-1.1503(0.7858)-0.2690(0.2437)lnfir-0.8469(0.0725)lndeploar3.9897(1.3301)1.1169(0.8442)0.2898(0.2589)lndeploar2.0145(0.1111)C2.4015(0.3411)2.7427(0.1202)2.9575(0.0689)C-2.2592AR(1)0.7197(0.1404)0.5137(0.1786)0.7035(0.0726)R-squared0.62110.33590.8135Durbin-Watsonstat1.87642.06071.7079F-statistic12.56933.877733.4477Prob(F-statistic)0.000050.02220:,(3.5)(t2.97-3.0)lnfir46,1%,3.72%lndeploar,1%,3.99%(3.8),1%,0.85%,1%,2.01%,,,;,,,,,,,,,(CanonicalRelationAnalysis)1936Hotelling:,,2,1,2,,,SPSS11.5,454e(%)CanRWilksFDFErrorDFF111.78590.5380.960.03524.9648460.00121.2329.4620.7430.4489.8533240.001CanR10.96,CanR20.743,0.5,459,F,5,PillaiHotellingWilksRoy,FF,5FDFErrorDFFPillais1.4736916.80048480.001Hotellings13.0171535.79728440.001Wilks0.0350524.96448460.001Roys0.92179490.54%,1,,6,,,,U1V1(-1.011)(0.866)(0.196);,56,,U2V2(0.703)(0.698)(-0.499),,,6CanR1=0.96U1=-1.011fir+0.863deploarV1=0.196incomgr+0.081eocstru-0.193invesr+0.886consurCanR2=0.743U2=0.466fir+0.703deploarV2=-0.499incomgr-0.301eocstru+0.698invesr+0.476consur,:,,,,,,,:(1),,,,,-(1955-1957,1963-1965),(2),,,,(3),(),,(,2007)2006,1997,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,66,,;;,,,,,,,,,2006:,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1VARVARLaglnLLRFPEAICSCHQ0-265.85NA89441.0719.914920.05919.957(invesr,fir,deploar)1-208.7397.3232548.02416.35016.92616.5212-193.6622.320831674.78315.9007316.909316.20043015.656NA7.86e-05-0.9375-0.7935-0.8947(lnconsur,lnfir,lndeploar)195.829136.5934.06e-073-6.20963-5.6343-6.038332100.607.06975.72e-07-5.8964-4.8885-5.5967:32VARVAR:0.050.05None30.821558.8338329.79744.8028321.1316(invesr,fir,deploar)Atmost10.403714.03115.494713.443214.2646Atmost20.02230.587883.84150.587883.84147None30.559932.2159329.79722.1625321.1316(lnconsur,lnfir,lndeploar)Atmost10.309610.053515.49510.004114.2646Atmost20.00180.04933.84150.049333.84147:VAR0.05None,:1.[]::,,,,20032.:,,,20073.::VAR,,2002(3)764.:,,2007(4)5.:,,2003,NO.C20030266.:,,1999(10)7.:,,2002(1)8.:,,2007(9)9.:,,,199910.::VAR,,2004(6)11.:,,2006(7)12.Bandiera,OrianaandCaprio,Gerard,etal.,2000.DoesFinancialReformRaiseorReduceSaving?TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,MITPress,Vol.82(2),pp.239-263.13.Berthelemy,J.C.andVaroudakis,A.,1995.ThresholdsinFinancialDevelopmentandEconomicGrowth.TheManchesterSchoolofEconomic&SocialStudies,BlackwellPublishing,Vol.63,pp.70-84.14.Boulila,Gha