广东区域金融发展的收敛性分析

ContemporaryFinance＆Economics—————————————————2009-12-01AGAT001DTDXM79009。。20088.019782.8。。、、。、。、。、Solow2050。convergence“”。[1]。、2004β1985-2002。。[2]20022004“U”。[3-4]20071978-2004“U”。[5]20081978-2005、“U”。[6]、、2008、、1978-20041978-198319842003。[7]20061978-2002σ510632σ、β1978-2008σββ。、、。σβ：F832.7：A：1005－0892(2010)01－0058－0820101302CONTEMPORARYFINANCE＆ECONOMICSNO．1，2010SerialNO．30258ContemporaryFinance＆Economics。[8]。。、。。、。。。200894.9%15.5、91.892.9。。12008%79.494.912.35.814.03.13.01.16.62.04.61.5《2009》。、。200812.3%、7.79.35.8%、4.34.7。。、85%。200886.4%、77.581.619858.1、6.31.9。200891.8%、86.688.7198517.2、13.24.0。21985-2008%198578.315.26.574.618.47.1199079.713.37.077.015.27.8199580.613.06.475.616.67.7200085.010.34.785.510.04.6200586.59.04.590.66.13.3200786.98.64.591.45.53.1200886.48.94.691.85.23.11985-2008。59ContemporaryFinance＆Economics200817787.6%、80.282.620289.0%、82.484.6427.287.6%、79.883.1。32008、、、%17787.620289.0427.287.6157.4156.638.27.8105.0104.422.14.5《200812》。2008944.684.3%、73.379.5。88.8%、82.284.2。42008、%252.087.322.97.913.94.8606.482.593.512.734.84.724.588.81.86.61.34.661.688.04.56.43.95.5944.684.3122.811.053.84.8。2008897964.2%、41.451.3。200842.2%、34.338.230.7%、26.526.616.0%、0.5%26.5%、5%。52008、%897964.242.230.716.026.5318922.87.94.20.33.9180912.94.04.10.21.9。“”。2010130260ContemporaryFinance＆Economics、σ、β。。1.σ[9]σ。





 
    
 










σσσσσσσσ21978-2008、《》1978-2008。11978-2008、《》1978-2008。21978-2008———19790.612199220080.793。1992———19780.91820080.33019780.17319920.2480.17。。。1978-2008、/。1、。1978-20080.60.90.83.11.42.5。61ContemporaryFinance＆Economicsσ2t=1nni=1Σlogyi,t-1nniΣlogyi,tΣΣ2yi,titσtnlogyi,t。T+tσt+T=πσtnTσ。2.ββ。1T-tlogyiTyitΣΣ=χ*+1-e-β(T-t)T-tlogy赞*iyitΣΣ+uititTT-tyit、yiTyiy赞*iχ*βuit。y赞*iχ*1T-tlogyiTyitΣΣ=A-1-e-β(T-t)T-tlogyit+uitA。βnββ。β。3.。、。γit=α1-α2logyi0+εitγittyi0α1α2εit。α2n。。1.σσ1978-2008σt。19780.2119920.1320080.223。1978-2008σ。。、。、、。、、。2010130262ContemporaryFinance＆Economics31978-2008σt2.β1β。β1978-20086。β-0.0012t95%。β。“、”。1992。1992。1978-1992β0.0006β1992-2008β-0.0061β。6ββTR2F1978-2008-0.0012-3.12150.33899.74351978-19920.00062.53150.27466.40851992-2008-0.0061-3.11900.35089.72502β。W1W2。1,00,1β7。R2t90%。1978-2008β0.0010β。、、、、β。β。β。7ββW1W2R21978-20080.00104.13070.02052.4765-0.0139-1.59300.65891978-1992-0.0018-2.94300.01812.5423-0.0021-3.06030.57461992-20080.00231.99440.02041.5160-0.0195-2.58200.4460t。












 
    
 










63ContemporaryFinance＆Economics3.、8。1978-2008、α2α2。、。。8α2tR2F-0.0480-3.36390.617811.3158-0.0223-2.28860.51165.23800.21333.11310.59239.9613、、。1978-2008σβ“、”。β。。。。。。。《2008-2020》、。、。、。—、。、。。2010130264ContemporaryFinance＆EconomicsAConvergenceAnalysisofRegionalFinancialDevelopmentinGuangdongCHENEn,HUANGGui-liangJinanUniversity,Guangzhou510632,ChinaAbstractBasedonthetheoryofeconomicconvergence,thispapermakesanempiricalanalysisoftheconvergenceoftheregionalfinancialdevelopmentinGuangdongprovincebyusingsuchtestingmethodsasσconvergence,βconvergenceandclubconvergence.Theresultsshowthatfrom1978to2008,thereappearednoautomaticgap-narrowingtrendintheregionalfinancialdevelopmentinGuangdongprovince;ingeneral,thereexistednosuchsituationasσconvergenceandabsoluteβconvergence,butthetrendofconditionalβconvergencedidexist,especiallythecitiesandtownsinthemountainousareasdisplaysthefeaturesoftheclubconvergence.Therefore,thefollowingwaysshouldbetakentoboostthecoordinatedevelopmentofregionalfinanceinGuangdongprovince:firstly,tospeedupthepaceoffinancialintegrationinthePearlRiverDeltaandenhanceitsabilitytoradiatetothewholeprovince;secondly,topromotetheintegrationoffinancialresourcesandthecollaborationoffinancialindustrybetweenthetwowingsoftheeasternandwesternareas,themountainousareasandthePearlRiverDeltaregion,andtoacceleratethepaceoffinancialreformanddevelopmentofthebackwardareas;andthirdly,toestablishafinancialresourceallocationsystemwhichcancomplementeachotherandmakedevelopmentorderlyandcoordinately,soastoachievetheefficientoperationandoptimizedallocationofthefinancialresourcesintheprovince.Keywordsregionalfinance;σconvergence;βconvergence;clubconvergence、、、、、。———————————————GDPGDP。、、、、、、、、9、、、、、7、、、、5。。———————————————[1].[M].2002.[2].[J].2004(2).[3].(1978-2000)[M].2004.[4].1978-1999[J].2002(2).[5].1978-2004[J].2007(3).[6].[J].2008(3).[7].[J].2008(3).[8].、[J].2006(2).[9].[J].2004(1).65