(中国电子商务市场之研究-以即时通讯为例)

1TowardsanUnderstandingofE-CommerceinChina-UsingInstantMessaging(中國電子商務市場之研究-以即時通訊為例)林娟娟東吳大學資訊科學系[e-mail]林政毅東吳大學資訊科學研究所[e-mail],InstantMessaging(IM)hasbeenwidelydiscussed.Basedonthecontentofdiscussion,wecanobservethatIMisgraduallybecomingaveryoutstandingcommercialcommunicationtool.Asthenumbersofusersgrowtremendously,theemergingcommercialopportunitiesareattractingmanyinvestors’intereststoenterthismarketaggressively.TheincreasingnumberofworldwideIMsubscribersandthefastgrowingonlinerevenueboostthepotentialofIMasakeybusinessopportunityinChina.ThesuccessinthisbusinessreliesontheunderstandingofthedemandsofcustomersandtheeffectivepromotionofIMusages.ThusthisresearchwillexplorethedeterminingfactorsmotivatingindividualstopayforIMservicesinChina.TheTechnologyAcceptanceModel(TAM)isconsideredasthebasicmodel.TobetterreflectIMcontext,theresearchmodelalsoincorporatesPerceivedServiceQuality,PerceivedExperienceandPerceivedTrust.ThecausalrelationshipsbetweenthetheoreticalconstructsusedintherevisedTAMwillbeexaminedtounderstandIMusers’behaviortowardspayinginIM.Keywords:IM,InstantMessaging,IndividualBehavior,China.21.IntroductionInChina,E-Commercehasgrownrapidlyinthepastfewyears.In1997,therewereonly670,000InternetusersinChinaandthenumberhasremarkablyjumpedto103millionbytheendofJune,2005.IntermsofInternetmarketsize,ChinaE-Commercereached320billionRenMinBi(RMB,thecurrencyofChina)bytheendof2004andisexpectedtoreach1,700billionRMB(equivalentto6,800billionNewTaiwanDollar;NTD)by2007(iResearchInc,2005a).Inshort,thereisgreatpotentialforE-CommercedevelopmentinChina.Recently,InstantMessaging(IM)hasbeenwidelydiscussed.Baseonthecontentfdiscussion(Nardietal.,2000;Ellenetal.,2002;RebeccaandLeysia,2002),itisobservedthatIMisbecomingaveryoutstandingcommercialopportunitiesalsoattractmaninvestors’intereststoenterthismarketaggressively.TakeTencentQQforexample,asthebiggestIMservicesproviderinChina,itsmarketshareisashighas65%,about85.5millionusersin2005(Analysys,2005b).AlthoughTencentQQoffersbasicIMfunctionforfree,italsoprovidesmanypaidservicessuchasavatars,onlinedatingandmessageforwardingfromIMtomobilephones.Inthesecondquarterof2005(2Q05),forthefirsttimeever,Tencentgeneratedover50%ofitsrevenuefromInternetvalueaddedservices(IVAS)andproduced41%ofitsrevenuefrommobilevalueaddedservices(MVAS)includingthesubscriptionserviceforIMforwardingtomobilephones.Thisshowsthepotentialofpaid-serviceswithaspecialfocusonMobileIMandPersonalExpressionasthekeytomonetizationinChina.Eventhough,moreandmoreTaiwanbusinessesaremovingovertoChina,thereishowever,verylittlediscussionaboutChinaE-CommerceandIMindustry.ThisstudyintendstoextendanunderstandingofE-CommerceandIMindustryinChinaandidentifythepossibledeterminantsthatleadtoindividuals’behavioralintentiontoadoptIM.Thus,theobjectiveofthisstudyistwofold:tounderstandtoE-CommercemarketinChinawithanemphasisintheIM;andtoexaminethehumanmotivationsunderlyingindividualbehavioralintentiontouseandpayforIMservicesinChina.InthenextsectionwewillprovideabriefoverviewtheChinaE-CommercelandscapeandtheIMindustrytoday.Insection3,wewillreviewcurrentrelatedtheories.ConceptualbackgroundofthestudyandhypotheseswillbediscussedinSection4.Thelastsectionwillexplaintheexpectedoutcomeofthisstudy.2.ChinaE-CommerceandIMindustryInthissection,abriefoverviewoftheChinaE-CommercelandscapeandIMindustryaiResearchInc.,ReportofChinaB2BE-CommerceAnalysisin2004,May2005,www.iresearch.com.cn.bAnalysysInc.,PeriodicalReport–2005,Nov.2005,www.analysys.com.cn.3willbeprovidedtohelpusunderstandthisenormousmarket.2.1E-CommerceinChinaTheE-CommerceinChinabeganwiththeintroductionoftheChinaGoodsOrderSystem(CGOS)whichwassetupbytheChinaNationalCommodityExchangeCenter(CCEC)in1997.In1998,therewastheCapitalE-Commerceprojectandin1999,thebiggestE-Commerceportalwww.8848.combeganitsoperation.Sincethen,thepenetrationofInternetcomputerreached45.6millionwhichhasincreased25.6%andInternetusersgrewto103millionandaccountedfor18.4%increasefrom2004(ChinaInternetNetworkInformationCenter,CNNIC).Thisisabout7.7%oftotalpopulationinChina.However,theInternetpenetrationrateisstillrelativelylow(15%currently)comparedtootherAsiancountries.Thisshowsanopportunityforhighonlineusergrowthinthefuture.Despitethelowpenetrationrate,ChinaE-Commercemarketstillmanagedtoreach320billionRMBbytheendof2004.Thetradingamountin2004reached316billionRMB.TheoverallE-CommercemarketinChinaisexpectedtobeat1,700billionRMB(6,800billionNTDequivalent)by2007(iResearchInc,2005c)(Ref.Figure1).Inshort,thereisgreatpotentialforE-CommercedevelopmentinChina.Figure1:ChinaE-CommerceMarketDevelopmentciResearchInc.,ReportofChinaB2BE-CommerceAnalysisin2004,May2005,www.iresearch.com.cn.44.2.1Business-to-Business(B2B)overInternetMostB2BservicesinChinawerelaunchedin2000.WiththesupportfromtheChinesegovernmentintermsofpolicy,regulation,infrastructureandetc.,“on-linetradingmarkets”dominatetheB2Bsectorwhereserviceproviderscreatewebsitestoservealargenumberofvendorsandbuyers,oftensmall-andmedium-sizedenterprises.Thismode