XXXX年6月美国农业部油脂产业数据oilseeds_full06-10

UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalServiceApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard/USDACircularSeriesFOP6-10June2010SoybeanMealFacesStiffCompetitionintheEUandNorthAmerica.PercentChangeinSoybeanMealConsumptionfrom2005/06-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%2006/20072007/20082008/20092009/20102010/2011Asia/OceaniaEU27NorthAmericaOtherSoybeanmealconsumptionintheEUandNorthAmericaremainsbelowlevelsof5yearsago,sharplycontrastingthemorethan30percentgrowthinAsiaandelsewhereoverthesameperiod.StrongergrowthinporkandpoultryproductionoutsideoftheEUandNorthAmericaaccountsformostofthedifference.IncreasedavailabilityofalternativefeedingredientsintheEUandNorthAmericahaspushedsoybeanmealconsumptionlower.GrowingbiodieselproductionintheEUhasincreasedsuppliesofrapeseedmeal,whichissubstitutingforsoybeanmealinfeedrations.GrowingethanolproductionintheUnitedStateshasincreasedsuppliesofcornby-products,suchasdistillersdriedgrains,whichissubstitutingforsoybeanmealintheUSandMexico.Inaddition,expandedrapeseedproductioninCanadahasincreasedthesupplyanduseofrapeseedmealinNorthAmericanfeedrations,furtherreducingdemandforsoybeanmeal.PRICES200300400500600Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jun-08Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10May-10U.S.Gulf/FOB($/Metricton)U.S.GulfSoybeanExportBids5yearAverage(2003/04-2008/09)=$326U.S.soybeanexportbids,FOBGulf,inMayaveraged$372perton,sustainingthesamelevelforthepastthreemonths.Tightoldcropsupplieshavesupportedexportprices.Asoftheweek-endingMay27,2010,U.S.soybeansalescommitments(outstandingsalesplusaccumulatedexports)toChinatotaled22.1milliontons,comparedto18.5millionayearago.Totalcommitmentstotheworldamountedto38.4milliontonscomparedto33.7millionforthesameperiodlastyear.TRADECHANGESIN2009/10•Brazil’ssoybeanexportsareup1.0milliontonsto29.4millioninresponsetostrongoverseas’demand,mainlyfromChina.•China’ssoybeanimportsareboosted1.0milliontonstoarecord47.0millioninresponsetoreportedlylargeshipmentsfromSouthAmerica.•Canada’srapeseedexportsareraised0.5milliontonsto7.2millionsupportedbystrongdemand,mainlyfromJapanandPakistan.•Malaysia’spalmoilimportsareraised0.4milliontonsto1.1millionsupportedbystrongdemandintherefinerysector.•China’ssoyoilimportsarecut0.3milliontonsto1.6millionasimportsfromArgentinacontinuetoberestricted.Rapeoilandpalmoilimportsareboostedtooffsetthelossesinavailabilityofsoyoil.•ThePhilippines’coconutoilexportsareboosted0.2milliontonsto1.2millionspurredbyastrongerexportpace.Table01:MajorOilseeds:WorldSupplyandDistribution(CommodityView)MillionMetricTons2006/072007/082008/092009/10May2010/11Jun2010/11noneProductionnone5.27Oilseed,Copra5.725.885.885.885.9646.01Oilseed,Cottonseed46.0241.3239.9042.7542.7310.18Oilseed,PalmKernel11.1011.8812.5113.2913.2931.03Oilseed,Peanut32.5934.5132.8833.7334.6345.09Oilseed,Rapeseed48.5257.8859.9360.4059.90237.13Oilseed,Soybean221.01211.96259.20250.13249.9329.74Oilseed,Sunflowerseed27.2233.7630.5733.7833.78404.45Total392.16397.20440.88439.96440.22noneImportsnone0.09Oilseed,Copra0.110.100.100.100.100.84Oilseed,Cottonseed0.750.550.610.630.610.13Oilseed,PalmKernel0.140.070.040.040.041.95Oilseed,Peanut2.041.871.841.851.857.01Oilseed,Rapeseed7.5612.1310.4011.1910.8969.07Oilseed,Soybean78.1277.1784.1586.4686.381.76Oilseed,Sunflowerseed1.251.781.611.951.9080.84Total89.9693.6598.75102.21101.76noneExportsnone0.13Oilseed,Copra0.130.120.140.150.150.84Oilseed,Cottonseed0.840.540.580.690.690.09Oilseed,PalmKernel0.050.050.060.060.062.39Oilseed,Peanut2.462.322.222.302.356.62Oilseed,Rapeseed8.1212.0210.9111.1410.7171.32Oilseed,Soybean79.5977.3486.3587.9288.241.89Oilseed,Sunflowerseed1.452.261.652.152.1683.28Total92.6494.66101.91104.41104.36noneCrushnone5.16Oilseed,Copra5.665.655.815.865.9033.70Oilseed,Cottonseed34.4832.0630.7632.2332.2010.04Oilseed,PalmKernel11.0111.6312.3913.0713.0714.13Oilseed,Peanut15.1015.4114.3615.1815.5343.62Oilseed,Rapeseed46.6652.1056.7558.1658.03195.61Oilseed,Soybean201.82193.01205.22215.31215.3026.08Oilseed,Sunflowerseed24.3028.9028.0429.7529.71328.34Total339.02338.76353.33369.55369.74noneEndingStocksnone0.10Oilseed,Copra0.110.290.290.520.281.33Oilseed,Cottonseed1.220.820.740.940.950.18Oilseed,PalmKernel0.200.360.340.410.411.21Oilseed,Peanut1.071.561.251.081.094.66Oilseed,Rapeseed3.556.676.395.825.6362.99Oilseed,Soybean52.9143.6665.4766.0966.992.75Oilseed,Sunflowerseed2.593.172.092.402.1773.23Total61.6456.5376.5677.2577.52TotalsmaynotaddduetoroundingForeignAgriculturalService/USDAOfficeofGlobalAnalysisJune2010Table02:MajorProteinMeals:WorldSupplyandDistribution(CommodityView)MillionMetricTons2006/072007/082008/092009/10May2010/11Jun2010/11noneProductionnone1.71Meal,Copra1.871.871.921.941.9515.33Meal,Cottonseed15.6514.4413.9914.6014.635.07Meal,Fish5.245.104.794.764.765.33Meal,PalmKernel5.866.236.626.996.995.47Meal,Peanut5.936.065.645.966.0925.91Meal,Rapeseed27.6430.8333.6334.4334.33153.88Meal,Soybean158.36151.67161.56169.64169.6311.49Meal,Sunflowerseed10.6112.7312.3413.07