东湖国家自主创新示范区产业从业人口预测研究

4300742010-202019881991200912820803IP15-151987200919852009232010-20201[1]1rPnP0rn1995-2008r2009-20202[2]1[3]Y+X2Ye3YX4Yd+X+bX2+cX3YXLK3-[4]Cobb-DouglasY*L*KYLK4[5]5320102020-20102020-120%10%2530%525%20%315%10%119952008200921995-20081rPnP0rnr0.115r112010-202020102011201220132014201525.6628.6131.9035.5739.6644.222016201720182019202049.3154.9861.3068.3576.211995-200822199522T0.1068060.0069660.99160115.3330.000195857.2212600.310.00036.8640.0000R20.98327Y95857.220.106806XYX1232009-2015332010-202020102011201220132014201525.0727.8931.0434.5338.4342.762016201720182019202047.5852.9458.9165.5572.94-Cobb-Douglas20012009Cobb-Douglas2010-2020Y*L*KYKL442001-20092001287.9024.0011.332002315.8230.0010.842003377.54402011.552004473.5747.2213.642005594.6158.1814.242006851.1474.1116.2320071119.03118.3918.5120081759.23155.3123.2820092011.00260.5226.0020012009LnYLnLLnKLnYLn+LnL+LnKYKL55T4.1890.6270.0006.6790.0010.4790.1320.4823.6350.0151.2580.3200.5223.9340.011Ln4.1891.2580.479Cobb-DouglasLnY4.189+1.258lnL+0.479lLnKY65.96*L1.258*K0.4792001-200920105-62010-2020662010-202020%20102413.20281.3624.0420112895.84306.6826.8920123475.01337.3529.9720134170.01367.7133.5320145004.01404.4937.3820156004.81440.8941.8120167205.78484.9846.6120178646.93528.6352.14201810376.32581.4958.13201912451.58633.8265.02202014941.90697.2172.49530525205-72010-2020772010-202025%-30%20102614.30312.6224.6120113398.59375.1528.2820124418.17450.1832.5020135743.62540.2137.3620147466.70648.2642.9320159632.05777.9149.04201612329.02933.4955.67201715657.851110.8563.00201819885.471333.0271.08201925055.701586.3079.94202031319.621887.7089.341510882010-202015%20102312.65278.7623.3220112659.55298.2725.4020123058.48319.1527.6620133517.25341.4930.1220144044.84365.3932.8120154651.57390.9735.7320165349.30418.3438.9120176151.70447.6242.3820187074.45478.9646.1620198135.62512.4850.2720209355.96548.3654.742002-2008532007200854200420062008200220032005200799T1.1140.4480.0002.4840.0140.5760.0260.83922.4100.000LnY1.114+0.576*LnXY3.0465*e0.576*LnXYX101020102413.2020.5220112895.8422.7920123475.0125.3220134170.0128.1220145004.0131.2320156004.8134.6920167205.7838.5320178646.9342.80201810376.3247.54201912451.5852.80202014941.9058.65116311201025.5925.0724.0424.6123.3220.52201128.5127.8926.8928.2825.422.79201231.7631.0429.9732.5027.6625.32201335.3834.5333.5337.3630.1228.12201439.4238.4337.3842.9332.8131.23201543.9142.7641.8149.0435.7334.69201648.9147.5846.6155.6738.9138.53201754.4952.9452.1463.0042.3842.80201860.7058.9158.1371.0846.1647.54201967.6265.6665.0279.9450.2752.80202075.3372.9472.4989.3454.7458.6511.511.5%2002-20092010-2020121220109.805.353.241.081.903.2624.64201110.935.973.611.212.123.6327.48201212.196.654.031.352.374.0530.64201313.597.424.491.502.644.5234.16201415.158.275.001.682.945.0438.09201516.909.225.581.873.285.6242.47201618.8410.286.222.083.666.2647.35201721.0111.466.942.324.086.9852.80201823.4212.787.742.594.557.7958.87201926.1214.258.622.895.078.6865.64202029.1215.899.623.225.669.6873.181211121.6%126132km22020132km2201080km210132km2[6][1][J]20055[2][D]2005[3][J]19914[4][J]200925[5][J]19994[6]SPSS[M]2007[7][M]200360ResearchontheEffectsofUrbanizationandUrban-ruralIncomeGapBasedontheProvincialPanelDataXingJinyuSchoolofStatisticsandMathematics,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430074,ChinaAbstract:Therelationshipbetweenurbanizationandurban-ruralincomegaphasbecomeahotspotincurrenteconomicresearch.Withtheunitroottest,grangercausalitytestandpaneldatamodelsandothermethods,westudytherelationshipbetweenurbanizationandurban-ruralincomegapby30provincial-levelpaneldataofperiod1998to2008.Thestudyfoundthaturbanizationhasbothpositiveandnegativeeffectstoshrinktheurban-ruralincomegap.InmostprovincesandregionsinChina,Speeduptheurbanizationprocesscaneffectivelynarrowtheurban-ruralincomegap.Finally,Igivesomesugges-tionsonurbanizationhowtoreducethenegativeeffectsonnarrowingtheurban-ruralincomegap.Keywords:Urbanization;TheUrban-ruralIncomeGap;TerranIndex;PanelUnitRoot;GrangerCausalityTestResearchontheindustrialEmployedPopulationForecastofEastLakeNationalIndependentInnovationModelDistrictPiLeiHuangKangshengSchoolofPublicAdministration,ZhongnanUniversityofEconomicsandLaw,Wuhan430074,ChinaAbstractThedevelopmentandconstructionofEastLakenationalindependentinnovationmodeldistrict,whichhasgreatpotentialtoenhancenationalcapacityforindependentinnovationandistheimportantstrategicsupporttorealizethenationalindependentinnovationdevelopmentstrategyandtheriseofcentralChinaplan,willbecomeanimportantpivotoftheriseofcentralChinaplan.However,thedevelopmentofhigh-techzonesisinseparablefromthetalentedpeopleservingforhigh-techzones,besides,thedevelopmentofvariousindustrieswillcontinuetoin-creasethedemandfortalent.Therefore,accordingtotheguidingprinciplesandgoalsofdevelopmentofEastLakeHigh-techArea,andvariousindustrytrend,usingavarietyofmodelsandprogramstopredicttheemployedpopula-tionofvariousindustriesaswellasthetotalnumberoftheemployedpeoplefrom2010to2020hassomepositiveef-fectsonthedevelopmentandplanningofEast