单位GDP能源消耗与产业结构特征

©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:2009206218:(1964),,,;(1986),,,GDP(,210046):20052007,,GDP,20002004GDP,2008GDP,,,GDP,GDP:GDP;;;:F121.3:A:167129301(2009)0520067207GDP,[122],2002GDP,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,,2005200776()20095(42)©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:(2008),,100,2005,2007200414.77%,2000200412.56%,,16.6%15.53%,20002004,20042007,3.5,1219952000200420052006200716.80%12.20%9.1%8.00%7.10%7.0%52.67%51.90%56.3%56.57%56.60%55.6%30.53%35.88%34.6%35.45%36.30%37.4%:(2008)GDP2,20002004,,GDP20005119%20045613%,GDP200035188%20043416%20042007,,GDP20043416%20073714%,13(%)19952000200420052006200747.7043.2033.231.2330.2628.952.3056.8066.868.7769.7471.1:(2008),80%,,,,,20005618%20046618%,10,20072004413,3,4,200420003718%2719%,2007200428154%24173%,,200818,39982,1011%,20071484780,613%,012%,200725,5200086GDP©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(:)20002004200520062007()3848.527514.399334.7011110.2413016.84617.162222.663284.864202.314720.991401.833749.914328.325816.267276.33()909.691539.491789.532216.402674.432479.022747.032817.563047.532480.20(100%)192.38227.22284.63254.66259.9317.2323.2130.2636.0548.574599.527993.229579.1510880.7711787.42190.99377.81458.49665.14803.35:(2007)5(:)GDP(/)20008612.43400.396474.5841.34737.840.86200413651.69369.4311041.1393.241325.640.86200516895.39321.5713748.43204.681522.480.92200618742.19327.9715401.34218.021633.460.89200720604.43330.1516973.62227.771818.720.85:(20002008):,,,GDP(/)2005,2005,,GDP,,2005GDP,20052005GDP2000,2005GDP,:GDP,2009,:GDP,GDP[3],1880,,19201930,1940,1970,,GDP:(1),96INDUSTRIALECONOMICSRESEARCH©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[3];(2)GDP,,GDP,,,GDP,GDP6(:/)1990200020012002200320043.953.123.163.102.852.652.432.052.072.011.801.6610.897.097.077.206.826.1813.0211.9211.8611.5010.329.3124.439.378.468.348.428.3311.4111.1310.8710.519.128.231.481.141.271.341.221.163.653.503.493.453.072.753.352.362.242.202.091.991.831.941.991.831.511.342.091.811.871.711.421.2723.6420.2617.8814.8310.841.752.152.101.921.541.372.141.611.631.451.291.102.742.762.852.632.081.77:(2007)GDP,,,,,GDP6,,2004GDP3,72000,80%[4]7200052.63125.67MW90%380Mt60%65%80%85%23%33%6090Mtce212.8GW528Mt33.84%40.63()2025Mtce(20052010)44.5GW80%600TWh87%92%13TWh2.38kVA41TWh90%190%50%60%9TWh:;;;;:,200182991,07GDP©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:()GDP:Y=AKLE(1)(1),Y,K,L,E,A,:C=PkK+PlL+PeE(2)(2),PkPlPe,,:E=YAP+e+PkPl1++(3)(3),lnE=1++[C+lnY-(+)lnPe+lnPk+lnPl](4)C=-lnA-ln-ln+(+)ln,++=1,GDP:ln(E/Y)=C-lnA-(+)lnPe+lnPk+lnPl(5)++1,GDP:ln(E/Y)=1++[C+(1-(++))lnY-(+)lnPe+lnPk+lnPl](6)lnY,Y,GDP()GDP(5)(6),,(5)(6),,,,(1),(6),:1.Y17INDUSTRIALECONOMICSRESEARCH©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(A),A=et3.K,,:Kt=It+(1-)Kt-1,Ktt,Itt,Kt+Kt-12It199519941995[5]2000,[5]9.6%4.L,5.E19952007,Eviews5.1,:lnY=0.0157t(0.9624)+0.6104(5.0668)lnK+0.2015(1.6280)lnL+0.1596(10.5395)lnE(7)R2=0.9998,D.W=1.4492,S.E.=0.0072(7),,F,,,(7):0.6104,0.2015,0.1596,++=0.97151,(4):lnE=-0.8912-0.0162t+1.0293lnY-0.8357lnPe+0.6283lnPk+0.2074lnPl(8)(8):,,,1.0293;,,0.8357;,,,,0.2074GDP,(8)lnY:lnEY=-0.8912-0.0162t+0.0293lnY-0.8357lnPe+0.6283lnPk+0.2074lnPl(9)(9),GDP,GDP0.0162;1%,GDP0.0293%,,,;,,GDP0.8619,,,GDP,GDP,:1.,,,,,,,,,,2.,,27GDP©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1],,.GDP:[J].,2006(2).[2],,,.2006[M].:,2006.[3].GDP[J].,2006(12).[4].()[J].,2003(9).[5],,.:19522000[J].,2004(10).:(:)UnitGDPEnergyConsumptionandIndustrialStructureofJiangsuYinJingdong,DaiXiumei(SchoolofEconomics,NanjingUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Nanjing210046,China)Abstract:Inthepastthreeyearsof2005to2007,operationofthenationaleconomyinJiangsuProvinceshowsthatbe2causeoftheheavychemicalindustryinJiangsuin2007isstillinthebusinesscycletorun,theunitGDPenergyconsumptionhasdecreased,butitremainsinthe2000to2004thesameUnitGDPenergyconsumptionoftheplatform,therealturningpointmaybein2008after.UnitGDPenergyconsumptioncombinedwithinternationalevidence,JiangsuProvinceshouldad2heretoeconomicefficiency2orientedbasedonthetechnicalefficiencyanddesignedtopromotetheunitGDPenergyconsump2tioncontinuedtoreduce.AnalysisshowedthatthepriceofenergyalsohassignificantadjustmentroletotheunitGDPenergyconsumption.Keywords:unitGDP