旅游市场营销学

20107184ChineseJournalofEco-Agriculture,July2010,18(4):905−910*(40871257,40635029)(973)(2006CB400505)(1965~),,,E-mail:[e-mail]:2009-11-11:2010-03-18DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1011.2010.00905*刘彦随1,2刘玉1,2郭丽英3(1.100101;2.100101;3.100081)全球气候呈现变暖的趋势,对农业生产和粮食安全产生重大影响,并成为当今全球环境变化关注的热点问题之一。本文采用文献综述与比较研究的方法,系统分析了气候变化对光资源、温度、土壤质量和水环境等农业生产要素的影响机理,探讨了气候变化对我国作物种植区域和种植制度、农作物病虫害、农业生产能力以及农业经济与管理等方面的实际影响,通过梳理国外应对气候变化的主要农业战略,提出新时期我国应对气候变化的农业可持续发展策略。农业生产粮食安全气候变化应对策略中国:F329.9;S162.5:A:1671-3990(2010)04-0905-06ImpactofclimaticchangeonagriculturalproductionandresponsestrategiesinChinaLIUYan-Sui1,2,LIUYu1,2,GUOLi-Ying3(1.InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;2.KeyLaboratoryofRegionalSustainableDevelopmentModeling,ChineseAcademyofSciences,Beijing100101,China;3.Insti-tuteofNaturalResourcesandRegionalPlanning,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,Beijing100081,China)AbstractAnumberofstudiesindicateincreasingglobalclimatewarmingespeciallyinrecentdecades.Climatewarminggreatlyinfluencesglobalagro-productionandfoodsecurity—thefocusofglobalenvironmentalchange.Thispaperproposesastructuralandorientationalframeworkforscientificallyaddressingclimaticchangeimpactonagro-production.Throughliteraturereviewandcomparativestudies,thepapersystematicallysummarizesinfluencingmechanismsandeffectofclimatewarmingonsuchagro-productionfactorsaslight,temperature,soilqualityandwaterenvironment.Theimpactofclimatewarmingoncultivationre-gions,croppingsystems,croppests,agro-productioncapacity,agro-economyandfarmmanagementisanalyzed.Then,suitablecli-mate-adaptedagro-developmentstrategiesareputforwardfordifferentregionsinChina.Thestrategiesarecarefullyselectedfromarepositoryofinternationaltestedclimaticchangecountermeasuresinagricultureatnationalordistrictlevel.KeywordsAgro-production,Foodsecurity,Climaticchange,Responsestrategy,China(ReceivedNov.11,2009;acceptedMarch18,2010)1气候变化的主要特点,,[1],,[2],,,[3][4],,906201018,,[5]2007IPCC4,1906~2005100,0.74,,0.78±0.27,[5],[6−9]CO2,20~100[10]20201950s1.68,[11]21,1.6~5,1.5%~20%;,;,[12]1990s,,,,,(SARD)2气候变化对农业生产的影响,,;,,,2.1,,(1)2.1.1,,[13],,2~3[14]2.1.20;10:1951,图1气候变化对农业生产的影响Fig.1Impactsofclimaticchangeonagriculturalproduction100[15]1979~2005104:907,;100~5d,0~5d;100~5d[16](GHG),,,1961~2005:059.5d10a−1;10,0[17],2.1.3,,,,,;,,[18],C-N[19],,,,,,[20],,2.1.4,,,15%,[21],,,,,,[22],,[23]IPCC,,;;2.22.2.1,,,,,,,,,[21]2090,,[24];,[25];,[26]1.404.2%,62.3%39.2%,24.2%24.9%,13.5%35.9%[27]2.2.2,,,,[28],[29];,[30],1~2;2.69,3[31]2006~2007,,,,[32]2.2.3CO2[33],;,,[34]908201018,[35]1,3%~10%20,4.5%[36],,,[37];CO2,;CO2,2.5%~12%[38]2.2.4,,,C3,C4[13],,,,1990~2007,2548104hm2,1357104hm2;1304104hm2,746104hm22007,407.2104hm2,186.5[32],3应对气候变化的主要农业发展策略3.1(1),,:GHG,CO2,;,,:20~30,,(2),[39],,CO2,[40],;,[41],GHG[42],,,GHG[40](3),,[43],,[44],,,,,[45],;,[46]3.2,,,,(1),,,,4:909,,(2),,,,,(3),,,[47],(),,,(4),,;,,;,;,,,参考文献[1],.[J].,2009(3):17−19[2],./[J].,2002,21(3):324−341[3].[J].,1996,51(3):202−212[4],,,.[J].,2009,5(2):71−78[5],,,.(I):[J].,2005,1(1):4−9[6],,.40[J].,2007,27(4):499−505[7],,,.[J].,2008,24(3):254−258[8],,,.[J].,2007,23(5):82−85[9],,.43[J].,2005,23(2):195−201[10],,,.():[J].,2006,2(1):3−8[11],,.[J].:,2003,2(2):16−20[12],,.IPCC-AR421[J].,2008,27(4):787−799[13],,,.[M].:,2003[14],,,.[J].,2009,17(1):115−119[15],,,.197810[J].,2008,19(8):1810−1816[16],,.45[J].,2009,30(1):19−24[17],,,.[J].,2009,24(5):934−944[18],,.[J].,2007,26(2):278−285[19],,,.N[J].,2007,31(2):252−261[20]LiuYS,WangDW,GaoJ.Landuse/coverchanges,theen-vironmentandwaterresourcesinnortheastChina[J].Envi-ronmentalManagement,2005,36(5):691−701[21],,,.():[J].,2006,2(2):51−56[22],,.[J].,2003(2):22−24[23],.[J].,2008,44(4):50−53[24],,,.[J].,2008,17(3):41−48[25],,.[J].,2005,20(1):119−125[26],,.910201018[J].,2007,27(5):137−140[27]FutangW.ImpactsofclimatechangeoncroppingsystemanditsimplicationforChina[J].ActaMeteorologicaSinica,1997,11(4):407−415[28],,,.[J].,2005,14(1):90−97[29].[J].,1997,5(3):45−48[30],,.[J].,2005,19(4):155−158[31].[J].,1993,14(1):41−47[32].(2007)[M].:,2008[33]MiragliaM,MarvinHJP,KleterGA.Climatechangeandfoodsafety:AnemergingissuewithspecialfocusonEurope[J].FoodandChemicalToxicology,2009,47(5):1009−1021[34].[J].,2001,16(1):1−4[35],,,.[J].,2007,12(5):659−666[36]YouLZ,RosegrantMW,WoodS,etal.ImpactofgrowingseasontemperatureonwheatproductivityinChina[J].Agri-culturalandForestMeteorology,2009,149(6/7):1009−1014[37],,,.[J].,2008,16(5):1167−1172[38]ChavasDR,IzaurraldeRC,ThomsonAM.Long-termcli-matechangeimpactsonagriculturalproductivityineasternChina[J].AgriculturalandForestMeteorology,2009,149(6/7):1118−1128[39]DelGrossoSJ,OjimaDS,PartonWJ,etal.GlobalscaleDAYCENTmodelanalysisofgreenhousegasemissionsandmitigationstrategiesforcroppedsoils[J].GlobalPlanetChange,2009,67(1/2):44−50[40]Verge´XPC,deKimpeC,DesjardinsRL.Agriculturalproduction,greenhousegasemissionsandmitigationpoten-tial[J].AgriculturalandForestMeteorology,2007,142(2/4):255−269[41]HutchinsonJJ,CampbellCA,DesjardinsRL.Someper-spectivesoncarbonsequestrationinagriculture[J].Agr