能源行业形势与煤炭工业发展

煤炭行业形势中国矿业大学管理学院钱永坤主要内容1.世界能源形势2.中国能源需求3.煤炭工业发展：国有煤矿与乡镇煤矿4.安全投入与经济效益关系5.死亡赔偿标准提高到20万能否降低煤矿事故？6.死亡赔偿标准与罚款数量的合理确定Ⅰ、世界能源形势一、概述二、石油三、天然气四、煤炭五、核能和水电六、初步结论Ⅰ、世界能源形势一、概述世界初级能源消费Worldprimaryenergyconsumption石油天然气核能水能煤炭各地区初级能源消费Regionalprimaryenergyconsumptionpattern2003各地区初级能源消费Regionalprimaryenergyconsumptionpattern2003Milliontonesoilequivalent2003Change2003over20022003shareoftotalUSA2297.84.8%23.6%NorthAmerica2727.30.2%28.0%S.&Cent.America465.52.4%4.8%RussianFederation670.83.7%6.9%Europe&Eurasia2913.42.2%29.9%MiddleEast426.82.4%4.4%Africa299.64.4%3.1%China1178.313.8%12.1%India345.32.2%3.5%Japan504.8-0.4%5.2%AsiaPacific2908.46.3%29.9%TOTALWORLD9741.12.9%100.0%人均初级能源消费PrimaryenergyconsumptionpercapitaⅠ、世界能源形势二、石油oilProvedoilreservesatend200310亿桶Distributionofprovedoilreserves2003Oilproductionbyarea北美中\南美洲欧洲中东非洲亚洲OilproductionbyareaThousandbarrelsdaily19701980199020002003Change2003over20022003shareoftotalUSA1129710170891477337454-1.6%9.2%NorthAmerica13257140631385613904142291.9%18.2%S.&Cent.America48293747450768996741-3.1%9.2%Europe&Eurasia7980150861610214932169274.1%22.1%Iraq15492658214925831344-33.9%1.8%SaudiArabia38511027071059297981713.8%12.8%MiddleEast13904188821754023163226078.3%29.6%Africa611262256665780084015.5%10.8%China61521192774325233961.5%4.6%AsiaPacific19794943674179717872-1.0%10.2%WORLD48061629466541174669767773.8%100.0%Oilreserves-to-production(R/P)ratiosOilreserves-to-production(R/P)ratiosatend1983Thousandmillionbarrelsatend1993Thousandmillionbarrelsatend2002Thousandmillionbarrelsatend2003ThousandmillionbarrelsShareoftotalR/PratioUSA35.630.230.730.72.7%11.3NorthAmerica95.291.065.563.65.5%12.2S.&Cent.America33.779.1100.5102.28.9%41.5RussianFederationn/an/a67.069.16.0%22.2Europe&Eurasia100.180.4104.369.19.2%17.1SaudiArabia168.8261.4262.8262.722.9%73.3MiddleEast396.9660.1726.8726.663.3%88.1Africa58.260.9101.7101.88.9%33.2China18.229.523.723.72.1%19.1AsiaPacific39.052.047.547.74.2%16.6WORLD723.01023.61146.31147.7100.0%41.0OilconsumptionbyareaOilconsumptionandproductionOilconsumptionbyareaThousandbarrelsdaily19701980199020002003Change2003over20022003shareoftotalUSA14710170621698819701200711.9%25.1%Europe&Eurasia18678244162336619453197511.0%25.9%China559176622534985598211.5%7.6%Japan392249365304557754512.1%6.8%AsiaPacific6726105681373021056226014.0%28.8%WORLD46086617496622775483781122.1%100.0%OilconsumptionpercapitaCrudeoilpricessince1861Majoroiltrademovements原油价格变化特点1、资源耗竭性在近几十年中对原油价格的影响不明显。有效的全球市场和技术进步可以吸收石油需求增长的25%。原油价格变化特点•欧佩克•成立于1960年，当时包括伊朗、伊拉克、科威特、沙特阿拉伯和委内瑞拉等五国。•1973年卡塔尔、印度尼西亚、利比亚、阿拉伯联合酋长国、阿尔及利亚、尼日利亚、厄瓜多尔和加蓬等8国加入，共13个国家。Oil:Production2003shareTOTALWORLD76777100.0%OfwhichOECD2118527.0%OPEC3038339.7%Non-OPEC3591746.4%FormerSovietUnion1047713.9%2、原油价格波动较大原油价格变化特点0.0020.0040.0060.0080.00100.001965196919731977198119851989199319972001OPECshareprice2003$3、OPEC对石油价格的控制并不明显原油价格变化特点4、石油价格在相当长一段时期内会在一定区间内波动。天然气消费大幅度增加。原油价格变化特点最近石油价格上涨主要原因–影响石油价格的主要因素不是由于石油储量短缺，而是担心石油供应不稳定。伊拉克局势不稳定–中国、印度高速增长、美国、欧洲、日本等经济复苏–投机Ⅰ、世界能源形势三、天然气Provednaturalgasreservesatend2003Distributionofprovednaturalgasreserves2003NaturalgasproductionbyareaNaturalgasreserves-to-production(R/P)ratiosNaturalgasconsumptionbyareaNaturalgasconsumptionandproductionNaturalgasconsumptionpercapitaMajornaturalgastrademovementsⅠ、世界能源形势四、煤炭Provedcoalreservesatend2003Provedcoalreservesatend2003MilliontonnesAnthraciteandbituminous（无烟煤和烟煤Sub-bituminousandLignite（褐煤）TotalShareofTotalR/PratioUSA11589113410324999425.4%258Germany2300043000660006.7%322RussianFederation4908810792215701015.9%*SouthAfrica49520-495205.0%207Australia4255039540820908.3%236China622005230011450011.6%（3）69（15）India823962000843968.6%230TOTALWORLD519062465391984453100.0%192Coalproduction-CoalconsumptionCoalproductionMilliontonnes1981199020002003Change2003over20022003shareoftotalUSA747.3933.6974.1970.0-2.2%18.9%CzechRepublic117.7102.865.263.90.9%1.2%Germany492.8426.7201.0205.0-1.5%4.0%Poland198.6215.3162.8162.80.5%3.2%UnitedKingdom127.592.831.228.2-5.9%0.6%SouthAfrica130.4174.8224.1238.88.4%4.7%Australia126.9210.4310.4347.22.4%6.8%China616.51079.3999.21667.015.0%32.6%India130.1223.3334.8367.32.2%7.2%TOTALWORLD3831.34718.24306.35118.85.6%100.0%CoalconsumptionMilliontonnesoilequivalent1980199020002003Change2003over20022003shareoftotalUSA385.6483.6569.1573.92.6%22.3%Germany139.6129.684.987.12.9%3.4%Poland101.680.257.658.83.7%2.3%RussianFederationn/a180.6106.0111.37.1%4.3%SouthAfrica43.571.381.988.96.4%3.4%Australia26.137.048.350.2-3.3%1.9%China314.4533.6455.0799.715.2%31.0%India57.1107.8169.1185.32.4%7.2%Japan57.676.098.9112.25.2%4.4%TOTALWORLD1810.62237.42141.22578.46.9%100.0%世界煤炭价格变动趋势0.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0019851990199520002005NorthwestEuropeUSJapanoilpricesⅠ、世界能源形势五、核能和水电NuclearenergyconsumptionbyareaHydroelectricityconsumptionbyareaⅠ、世界能源形势六、初步结论•未来能源需求增长中，多数将来自石油、天然气和煤炭等化石燃料。•石油仍将是主要燃料能源•天然气将成为全球增长中最快的一次能源•中国煤炭消费量将有较大增加Ⅱ、中国能源需求1、供求关系变动2、能源生产与消费结构变动。石油需求3、能源使用效率万元GDP消费能源数量：1990年9.67吨标准煤2000年4.78吨标准煤（1978年价格为基准）4、主要结论项目19901995200020012002能源生产量103922129034106988120900138369能源消费量9870313