新的系统技术和新兴科学和技术预测方法：案例研究纳米增强生物传感

ASystematicTechnologyForecastingApproachforNewandEmergingScienceandTechnology:CaseStudyofNano-enhancedBiosensors1LuHuang1,2,YingGuo1,2,AlanL.Porter2,31SchoolofManagementandEconomics,BeijingInstituteofTechnology,Beijing,100081,P.R.China2SchoolofPublicPolicy,GeorgiaInstituteofTechnology,Atlanta,GA30332-0345,USA3SearchTechnology,Inc.,Atlanta,GA,USAThisresearchwasundertakenatGeorgiaTechdrawingonsupportfromtheNationalScienceFoundation(NSF)throughtheCenterforNanotechnologyinSociety(ArizonaStateUniversity;AwardNo.0531194);andtheScienceofSciencePolicyProgram--“MeasuringandTrackingResearchKnowledgeIntegration”(GeorgiaTech;Award#0830207).Abstract-Thispaperaddressesthetopicofanticipatinglikelydevelopmentpathsforaparticular“NewandEmergingScience&Technology”(NES&T).CharacteristicsofNES&T--technologicaluncertaintyandcontextualdynamics--posechallengesfortechnologymanagementandforecastingpractices.Researchers,technologists,R&Dmanagers,staffinfundingagenciesandpolicymakers“needtoknow”futureprospects.ThisrequiresbetterwaystocaptureNES&Tdevelopmentpatterns,withintheirsocio-economiccontext,aswellaslikelyinnovationopportunities.AnewtechnologyforecastingframeworkforNES&Tsispresented,supportedbyacasestudyofnano-enhancedbiosensors.I.INTRODUCTION“Analysisofemergingtechnologies”hasbeenofinterestformanyyears.Recently,“NewandEmergingScience&Technologies”(“NES&Ts”)havedrawntheattentionofFuture-orientedTechnologyAnalyses(“FTA”)researchersbecauseoftheiruncertaintyanddynamiccharacteristics[1].NES&TschallengetrustedFTAapproaches,liketechnologyroadmapping[2].Asaresult,it’sanintriguingmethodologicalchallengetodecidewhatdataandmethodscanyieldeffectivefutureprojectionsforNES&Ts.ThispaperdevelopsaconceptualframeworktodepictandforecastNES&Ts.Itisorganizedinfoursections.KeyconceptsanddevelopmentstatusarediscussedinSection1.InSection2,wesetupasystematictechnologyforecastingapproachframeworkforNES&TsonthebasisoftraditionalandnewFTAmethods.Wethenapplytheseapproachestonano-enhancedbiosensorsasacasestudyinSection3.Atlast,adiscussionofadvantagesanddisadvantagesofourproposedapproachgainedfromthecasestudyconstitutesSection4.II.CHALLENGESINFORECASTINGNEWANDEMERGINGSCIENCE&TECHNOLOGIESInrecentdecades,FTAhascomeforthtoenrichourunderstandingoftechnologicalinnovationwithinsocietalcontexts,underhighlydynamicconditions[3](seealso).FTAmaycombine“aims”(normativeaspects)concerningparticularemergingtechnologiesand“action”dimensions,suchasanalyticalprocessesthatbetteraddresstechnologicaluncertainties,risks,andopportunities.FTAcanserveawiderangeofpotentialusers,fromcorporatemanagerstonationalpolicymakers.TheFTAinitiativeblendsmanyformsofanalyzingfuturetechnologyanditsconsequences--forexample,technologyintelligence,forecasting,roadmapping,assessment,andforesight.Usingtheseapproaches,FTAanalystscaninformtechnologymanagement,aswellasscienceandresearchpolicy[4].However,NES&TsposenewchallengesforeffectiveFTA.RecentlythoseengagedinFTAarebeginningtodistinguishscienceandtechnologydevelopmentsituationsthatwarrantdifferentiatedanalyticalstrategies.Technologyforecastingforlong-establisheddevelopments,withdominantplatforms(e.g.,silicon-basedinformationtechnologies)andincrementallychangingapplicationsaremoreamenabletotrendanalysesandgrowthmodelingthanarenewlyadvancingscientificresearchareaswithnoapplicationsyet(e.g.,manynanoandbiotechnologies).Giventheirlesspredictabletechnicalbasesandcomplexsocietalcontexts(developmentenvironment),itisveryhardtoanticipatethedevelopmentalpathsthatsuchtechnologieswillfollow.Thisrequiresnewwaysoftechnologyforecastingthatcapturedevelopmentpatterns,interactionswiththesocietalenvironment,andforecastingoflikelyfutureinnovationsforagivenNES&T.WedistinguishfouraspectsofNES&TsthatbearimportantlyonhowtodoFTA.Posingtheseasthedrivingquestions:(1)HowbesttounderstandtheNES&Tdevelopmentsituation?ManyexistingFTAapproachesfocusonexploringfuturepossibilities,neglectingtomakesurethatweunderstandkey“forcesandfactors”ofthepresentsituation.(2)Howtoconvertknowledgeofthepresentsituationintothekeytechnologymanagementandforecastingissuestobeaddressed?Fromtheviewpointofthetechnologyforecastingprocess,thestartingpointisreallytheendpoint---whatinformationneedspromptthisanalysisandwhatquestionsneedberesolved?Moreover,whataretheempiricalindicatorsthatcanbegeneratedbyourFTAactionstohelpanswerthosequestions?(3)HowtoadoptoradaptexistingFTAmethodstogeneratethoseindicators?TheavailabledatavarygreatlyfordifferentNES&Ts.(4)HowtopresentanalyticalresultstoaidmanagementoftheNES&Tdevelopment–toenhancetheopportunitiesanddecreasetherisks?NES&Tsposespecialchallengesasafunctionofmanyfactors–factorsthatwearejustnowexploring,including:(a)HowregularistheR&Dprocess?Considerasoneextremethecaseofsilicon-basedmicroelectronicswherethetechnologyhasadvancedquiteregularlyforhalfacentury.Attheotherextremeareareaswherebreakthrough-basedresearchadvancesspur“new”scienceandtechnology(e.g.,contrastgeneticsbeforeandafterPolymeraseChainReaction(PCR)enabled“inst