全球轻型电动车发展现状和下世代LEV

LEVWorldwideStatusandNextGenerationLEVsEdBenjaminBenjaminConsultingTaipeiInternationalCycleShowMarch2009全球轻型电动车发展现状和下世代LEV爱德.本杰明本杰明咨询台北国际自行车展2009年3月LEVDefinitionLessthan100Kg(Usually)2or3wheelsElectricmotorVarietyofEnergyStoragemethodsElectricBicycle,ElectricScooter,ElectricMotorCycle,ThreeWheelCycleTruck轻型电动车的定义通常重量低于100Kg两轮或三轮电机多种储能方法电动自行车,电动轻摩,电动摩托车,电动三轮货车LEV轻型电动车LEV轻型电动车FutureOfPersonalTransportMostpeople,worldwide,wouldliketohaveacar.Carsarecomfortable,seemsafer,andhavehighprestige.But…theresimplyisnotenoughmoney,land,ormaterialsforeveryonetohaveacar.Andthisisbeforetheproblemscreatedbyairpollutionandenvironmentalcostsofcarindustry.Butitispossibleforalmosteveryonetohaveatwowheelerpoweredbyelectricity.个人交通工具的未来世界上大多数人都愿意拥有一部汽车。汽车更加舒适安全，享有美誉。但是，现有的金钱、土地和原材料不可能满足所有人对汽车的需求。再加上空气污染和汽车工业对环境的影响。但是，世界上几乎每个人都拥有一辆电动两轮车是可以实现的。CurrentMarketStatusTheLEVindustrytodayissomethinglikethecarindustrybefore1910.Horselesscarriagesweretheideaatthattime.Noonein1910reallyknewwhatthecarwouldlooklikein2010.Orwhatitcoulddo,orthatitwouldbeadecliningindustry.MostLEVstodayareelectricbicycles.Doesthatsoundabitlike“horselesscarriage”?Worldwide,about22millionLEVswerebuiltin2008.Roughly11BillionDollars.市场发展现状今天的轻型电动车产业好比1910年以前的汽车产业。当时，汽车便是不用马拉的马车，没有人想像得出2010年的汽车会是什么样子，会有哪些功能，或者汽车产业将会下滑。今天电动自行车在轻型电动车中占大多数。这听上去是不是有点像“不用马拉的马车”？2008年全球共制造约22,000,000辆轻型电动车，价值110亿美元。MarketsTodayChina–willcontinuetobelargestmarket.India–largepopulation,largeneed,notasprosperousasChina.EU–environmentalissues,plusdensepopulations,thiswillbethehighestvaluemarketfortopquality.Japan–densepopulations,needforfoldingandcompactvehicles.USA-longerdistances,needhigherspeedsandpower.SEAsia–toughenvironment,needsturdy,weatherproof.RestofWorld-mostwillneedsturdy,cheapvehicles.Chinaexportsebikesto170differentcountries!今天的LEV市场中国将继续成为最大的市场。印度人口众多，需求量大，但不如中国经济繁荣。欧盟对环保的重视和稠密的人口，将使其成为高品质电动车最有价值的市场。日本人口稠密，需要折叠和结构紧凑的交通工具。美国骑行距离远，需要更高的速度和更大的功率。东南亚气候潮湿炎热，环境恶劣，需要坚固、耐用和防水的交通工具。世界上大多数其它国家和地区都需要坚固耐用，价格低廉的交通工具。中国向世界上170个国家出口电动自行车！ElectricBikesThisproductisnotmature,butwehaveroughlyl5yearsofgoodexperiencehelpingmakeareliable,cheap,functionalproductforsomemarkets.Duetolowcost,highutility,thiswillremainanimportantpartoftheLEVindustry.MostgovernmentsencourageElectricBikes.电动自行车电动自行车并不成熟，但15年的经验使我们能够为一些市场提供可靠，廉价，实用的产品。电动自行车成本低，功效大，将继续成为轻型电动车产业的重要部分。大多数政府鼓励电动自行车。MarketsTomorrowElectricBikeswillbecomemorepowerful,becomingmorelikeelectricmopedsorelectricmotorscooters.Weatherprotectionwillbeanimportantimprovement.Thestreamliningeffectofashellwillalsoincreasespeedandendurance.Safetywillbeanimportantissue,withinnovationsincontrolsandprotection.Saleswillexpandtoabout130millionpiecesperyear–atahigherprice-or104Billiondollars.未来的LEV市场电动自行车功率更大，更类似于电动轻摩。在抵御恶劣天气方面将有重要改进。流线型外壳会同时提高速度和延长使用寿命。安全仍然十分重要。将会在控制和保护方面出现创新。产销量将增加到每年130,000,000辆，销售额也随着售价的提高而增加到1040亿美元。ElectricScootersThiswillbethemostnumerousproduct.Highutilityforthelargestnumberofusers.ElectricMotorcyclesThiswillbethehighestvalueproductforLEVs–vergingonbeingtoobigandheavytoberegardedasanLEV.LargelylimitedtoUSAandEUmarkets.ElectricMiniScootersNotjustatoy.Validtoolformanyindoorandshortrangeoutdoortasks.Segway赛格威ThreeWheelersLocaltransportShortrangetaxiHandicappedvehiclesPostBikesMoreandmoreofworldpostandparcelwillmovebytwowheelsandelectricpower.LightDelivery外卖服务ParticularlyfooddeliveryStreamliners流线型电动车BatteryTechnologyBatteriesoftodayaregoodenough,andthepriceislowenough.Cyclelifeandconsistencyneedtoimprove.Batterieswillgetbetterandbetter.Hugeinvestmentinthisworldwide.Maybenotcheaperandcheaper.Recyclingandcustomereducationisveryimportant.CompareGasolinetoLithium–lithiumsafer,butconsumersdon’tunderstandlithiumaswellastheyunderstandgasoline.Thiswillchange.电池技术今天的电池足够好，价格也足够低。循环寿命和一致性有待提高。全球范围内的巨大投资使电池技术越来越进步。但价格不一定越来越低。回收和引导消费者十分重要。锂电比汽油更加安全，但消费者对锂电的了解程度远不如汽油。这将会改变。MotorTechnologyMotorsoftodayaregoodenough,buthigherpowermotorswillundergogreatimprovement.Motorsoftodayarecheapenough–themarketcanandwillpaymoreinthefuture.Longermotorlifewillbecomenecessary-targetof3,000hoursfornormalLEVs.Onamotorscooterthisisabout100,000KM.Today’sgoodmotorsonly1,000hours.Enoughfornow,butmustimproveinfuture.电机技术今天的电机足够好。但大功率电机将会有重大进步。今天的电机足够便宜。将来市场有能力且愿意支付更高的价格。电机寿命需要延长-一般LEV电机应有3000小时使用寿命，可供电动轻摩骑行100,000公里。今天的高品质电机寿命可达1000个小时。现在足够使用，但在将来必须有所改进。ReasonsforMarketGrowthIncreasingurbanizationTrafficandparkingcongestionAirpollutionFuelpriceAlternativesourcesofenergyallworkwithElectric.Personalawareness市场成长因素城市化进程加快交通拥挤、停车困难空气污染燃油价格所有替代能源均与电能兼容。个人意识ElectricVs.Gasoline电动Vs.燃油WeHaveaGreatFuture!我们拥有光明的前景!