chap010 Prospective Analysis(财务报表分析-台湾中兴大学)

10CHAPTERProspectiveAnalysisMcGraw-Hill/Irwin©2004TheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.,AllRightsReserved.ProspectiveAnalysisImportanceSecurityValuation-freecashflowandresidualincomemodelsrequireestimatesoffuturefinancialstatements.ManagementAssessment-forecastsoffinancialperformanceexaminetheviabilityofcompanies’strategicplans.AssessmentofSolvency-prospectiveanalysisisusefultocreditorstoassessacompany’sabilitytomeetdebtservicerequirements,bothshort-termandlong-term.TheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatementSalesforecastsareafunctionof:1)Historicaltrends2)Expectedlevelofmacroeconomicactivity3)Thecompetitivelandscape4)StrategicinitiativesofmanagementTheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatementSteps:1)Projectsales2)Projectcostofgoodssoldandgrossprofitmarginsusinghistoricalaveragesasapercentofsales3)ProjectSG&Aexpensesusinghistoricalaveragesasapercentofsales4)Projectdepreciationexpenseasanhistoricalaveragepercentageofbeginning-of-yeardepreciableassets5)Projectinterestexpenseasapercentofbeginning-of-yearinterest-bearingdebtusingexistingratesiffixedandprojectedratesifvariable6)Projecttaxexpenseasanaverageofhistoricaltaxexpensetopre-taxincomeTheProjectionProcessTargetCorporationProjectedIncomeStatement1)Sales:$43,115=$39,888X1.08092)Grossprofit:$13,665=$43,115X31.69%3)Costofgoodssold:$29,450=$43,115-$13,6654)SG&A:$9,602=$43,115X22.27%5)Depreciation:$1,263=$18,442(beginning-of-periodPP&Egross)X6.85%6)Interest:$578=$8,088(beginning-of-periodinterest-bearingdebt)X7.15%7)Pretaxincome:$2,222=$13,665-$9,602-$1,263-$5788)Extraordinaryanddiscontinueditems:none9)Netincome:$1,378=$2,222-$844TheProjectionProcessProjectedIncomeStatement2002EstimateNetsales143,115$Costofgoodssold229,450Grossprofit213,665Selling,generalandadministrativeexpense49,602Depreciationandamortizationexpense51,263Interestexpense6578Incomebeforetax72,222Incometaxexpense8844Extraordinaryitemsanddiscontinuedoperations9-Netincome101,378$Outstandingshares905ForcastingAssumptionsSalesgrowth8.09%Grossprofitmargin31.69Selling,generalandadministrativeexpenses/Sales22.27Depreciationexpense/GrossprioryearPP&E6.85Interestespense/Prior-yearlong-termdebt7.15Incometaxexpense/Pretaxincome38.00ForcastingStepTargetCorporationProjectedIncomeStatementTheProjectionProcessProjectedBalanceSheetSteps:1)Projectcurrentassetsotherthancash,usingprojectedsalesorcostofgoodssoldandappropriateturnoverratiosasdescribedbelow.2)ProjectPP&EincreaseswithcapitalexpendituresestimatederivedfromhistoricaltrendsorinformationobtainedintheMD&Asectionoftheannualreport.3)Projectcurrentliabilitiesotherthandebt,usingprojectedsalesorcostofgoodssoldandappropriateturnoverratiosasdescribedbelow4)Obtaincurrentmaturitiesoflong-termdebtfromthelong-termdebtfootnote.5)Assumeothershort-termindebtednessisunchangedfromprioryearbalanceunlesstheyhaveexhibitednoticeabletrends.6)Assumeinitiallong-termdebtbalanceisequaltothepriorperiodlong-termdebtlesscurrentmaturitiesfrom4)above.7)Assumeotherlong-termobligationsareequaltotheprioryear’sbalanceunlesstheyhaveexhibitednoticeabletrends.8)Assumeinitialestimateofcommonstockisequaltotheprioryear’sbalance9)Assumeretainedearningsareequaltotheprioryear’sbalanceplus(minus)netprofit(loss)andlessexpecteddividends.10)Assumeotherequityaccountsareequaltotheprioryear’sbalanceunlesstheyhaveexhibitednoticeabletrends.TheProjectionProcessProjectedBalanceSheetProjectionofTargetCorp’s2002BalanceSheet:1)Receivables:$4,141=$43,115(Sales)/10.41(Receivableturnover).2)Inventories:$4,809=$29,450(Costofgoodssold)/6.12(Inventoryturnover)3)Othercurrentassets:nochange.4)PP&E:$21,861=$18,442(Prioryear’sbalance)+$3,419(Capitalexpenditureestimate).5)Accumulateddepreciation:$6,172=$4,909(Priorbalance)+$1,263(Depreciationestimate).6)NetPP&E:$21,861-$6,172.7)Otherlong-termassets:nochange.8)Accountspayable:$29,450(Costofgoodssold)/6.55(Payableturnover).9)Currentportionoflong-termdebt:amountreportedinlong-termdebtfootnoteasthecurrentmaturityfor2002.10)Accruedexpenses:$43,115(Sales)/25.47(Accruedexpenseturnover).11)Taxespayable:$844(Taxexpense)X50.24%(Taxpayable/Taxexpense).12)Deferredincometaxesandotherliabilities:nochange.13)Long-termdebt:$8,088(Prioryear’slong-termdebt)–$892(Scheduledcurrentmaturitiesfrom9).14)Commonstock:nochange.15)Capitalsurplus:$1,118=$1,098+$20(reflectingnormalESOPandstockoptionactivity).16)Retainedearnings:$7,861=$6,687(Prioryear’sretainedearnings)+$1,378(Projectednetincome)-$204(Estimateddividendsof$0.225pershare).17)Cash:amountneededtobalancetotalliabilitiesandequityless(1)–(7).TheProjectionProcessProjectedBalanceSheet2StepProcess:1)Projectinitialcashbalance2)Increase(decrease)liabilitiesandequityasnecessarytoachievehistoricalpercentageofcashtototalassets.Fund(repay)withhistoricalproportionofdebtandequity.TheProjectionProcessProjectedBalanceSheet2001Cash499$16(1,574)$626$Receivables3,83114,1414,141Inventories4,44924,8094,809Othercurrentassets8693869869Totalcurrentassets9,6488,24510,445Property,plantandequipment18,442421,86121,861Accumulateddepreciation4,90956,1726,172Netproperty,plantan