Energy_Outlook_2035_booklet(BP世界能源展望2035)

©BPp.l.c.2015February2015bp.com/energyoutlook#BPstatsBPEnergyOutlook2035©BPp.l.c.2015DisclaimerThispresentationcontainsforward-lookingstatements,particularlythoseregardingglobaleconomicgrowth,populationgrowth,energyconsumption,policysupportforrenewableenergiesandsourcesofenergysupply.Forward-lookingstatementsinvolverisksanduncertaintiesbecausetheyrelatetoevents,anddependoncircumstances,thatwillormayoccurinthefuture.Actualoutcomesmaydifferdependingonavarietyoffactors,includingproductsupply,demandandpricing;politicalstability;generaleconomicconditions;legalandregulatorydevelopments;availabilityofnewtechnologies;naturaldisastersandadverseweatherconditions;warsandactsofterrorismorsabotage;andotherfactorsdiscussedelsewhereinthispresentation.BPdisclaimsanyobligationtoupdatethispresentation.NeitherBPp.l.c.noranyofitssubsidiariesacceptliabilityforanyinaccuraciesoromissionsorforanydirect,indirect,special,consequentialorotherlossesordamagesofwhatsoeverkindinconnectiontothispresentationoranyinformationcontainedinit.EnergyOutlook20352©BPp.l.c.2015ContentsIntroductionGlobalenergytrendsLiquidfuelsNaturalgasCoalandnon-fossilfuelsKeyuncertaintiesAppendixEnergyOutlook20353Page472949637793©BPp.l.c.2015Welcometothe2015editionofBP’sEnergyOutlook.Atatimewhenourindustryisfocusedontherapidresponsetoadramaticfallinoilprices,itisinstructivetolookateventsfromalongertermperspective.Today’sturbulenceisareturntobusiness-as-usual.Continuouschangeisthenorminourindustry.Theenergymixchanges.Thebalanceofdemandshifts.Newsourcesofenergyemerge,suchasshalegas,tightoil,ultra-deepwateroilorrenewables.Economiesexpandandcontract.Energyproductionandconsumptionareaffectedbydisruptions,fromwarstoextremeweather.Newpoliciesarecreatedtoaddressclimatechangeorbolsterenergysecurity.Energycompaniesneedtoadapt–asBPisdoingasIwrite;andtobuildstrategicallyforthelongertermwenotonlyneedtocontrolcapitalandcosts,buttosetacleardirection.ThisOutlookisthereforevaluableingivingusaninsightintothemostlikelyshapeofthefutureenergylandscapeandsomeofthemostimportantchangesexpectedoverthenext20years.Threekeyfeaturesareparticularlyworthnoting.First,tradepatternsareshifting.ThestronggrowthofUStightoilinrecentyearshashadadramaticimpact,withoilincreasinglyflowingfromWesttoEastratherthanEasttoWest.Thisislikelytocontinue,withstronggrowthinChinaandIndiadrivingenergydemand.Wealsoexpecttoseethemarketingasbecomemoreglobalasliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)integratesregionalmarketsandleadstogreatercongruenceinglobalpricemovements.4EnergyOutlook2035©BPp.l.c.2015Second,theenergymixcontinuestoshift.Fossilfuelsareprojectedtoprovidethemajorityoftheworld’senergyneeds,meetingtwo-thirdsoftheincreaseinenergydemandoutto2035.However,themixwillshift.Renewablesandunconventionalfossilfuelswilltakealargershare,alongwithgas,whichissettobethefastestgrowingfossilfuel,aswellasthecleanest,meetingasmuchoftheincreaseindemandascoalandoilcombined.Meanwhile,coalisnowexpectedtobetheslowestgrowingfuel,asindustrializationinemergingAsianeconomiesslowsandenvironmentalpoliciesaroundtheglobetighten.Thatbringsustotheenvironmentalchallenge.Themostlikelypathforcarbonemissions,despitecurrentgovernmentpoliciesandintentions,doesnotappearsustainable.Theprojectionshighlightthescaleofthechallengefacingpolicymakersatthisyear’sUN-leddiscussionsinParis.Nosinglechangeorpolicyislikelytobesufficientonitsown.Andidentifyinginadvancewhichchangesarelikelytobemosteffectiveisfraughtwithdifficulty.Thisunderpinstheimportanceofpolicy-makerstakingstepsthatleadtoaglobalpriceforcarbon,whichprovidestherightincentivesforeveryonetoplaytheirpart.Itwillbeayearofdebate,notonlyontheenvironment,buttheeconomyandenergyingeneral.Wehopethatthisyear’sBPEnergyOutlook2035canmakeausefulcontributiontoinformingthediscussionandshapingafuturewhereenergyissustainable,secureandaffordable.BobDudleyGroupchiefexecutive5EnergyOutlook2035©BPp.l.c.2015Notesonmethodandassumptions6EnergyOutlook2035Thiseditionupdatesourviewofthelikelypathofglobalenergymarketsto2035.Theunderlyingmethodologyremainsunchanged–webuildasingle“mostlikely”viewbasedonassumptionsaboutchangesinpolicy,technologyandtheeconomy.Wefocusonthe“mostlikely”basecaseasabasisfordiscussion.ButtherearemanyuncertaintiessurroundingthebasecaseandintheprocessofbuildingtheOutlookweexploretheimpactofalternativeassumptions.Someofthoseuncertaintiesareconsideredinthe“Keyuncertainties”section,althoughthisdiscussionisbynomeansexhaustive.Unlessnotedotherwise,datadefinitionsarebasedontheBPStatisticalReviewofWorldEnergy,andhistoricalenergydataupto2013areconsistentwiththe2014editionoftheReview.GrossDomesticProduct(GDP)isexpressedintermsofrealPurchasingPowerParity(PPP)at2011prices.Alldatasourcesarelistedonpage98.©BPp.l.c.2015IntroductionGlobalenergytrendsLiquidfuelsNaturalgasCoalandnon-fossilfuelsKeyuncertaintiesAppendixEnergyOutlook20357Page472949637793©BPp.l.c.20150306090OECDOtherPopulationgrowthIncomegrowthperperson0601201802401975199520152035Trillion,$2011PPPGDP01234567891975199520152035Globalpopulationandincreasesinincomeperperson…Contr