TED世界未来发展的方向

世界未来发展的方向’sbuildasmarterplanet.Thefuture,asweknowit,isveryunpredictable.Thebestmindsinthebestinstitutionsgenerallygetitwrong.Thisisintechnology.Thisisintheareaofpolitics,wherepundits,theCIA,MI6alwaysgetitwrong.Andit’sclearlyintheareaoffinance.Withinstitutionsestablishedtothinkaboutthefuture,theIMF,theBIS,theFinancialStabilityForum,couldn’tseewhatwascoming.Over20,000economistswhosejobitis,competitiveentrytogetthere,couldn’tseewhatwashappening.Globalizationisgettingmorecomplex.Andthischangeisgettingmorerapid.Thefuturewillbemoreunpredictable.Urbanization,integration,comingtogether,leadstoanewrenaissance.Itdidthisathousandyearsago.Thelast40yearshavebeenextraordinarytimes.Lifeexpectancyhasgoneupbyabout25years.Ittookfromthestoneagetoachievethat.Incomehasgoneupforamajorityoftheworld’spopulations,despitethepopulationgoingupbyabouttwobillionpeopleoverthisperiod.Andilliteracyhasgonedown,fromahalftoaboutaquarterofthepeopleonearth.Ahugeopportunity,unleashingofnewpotentialforinnovation,fordevelopment.Butthereisanunderbelly.TherearetwoAchilles’heelsofglobalization.ThereistheAchilles’heelofgrowinginequality.Thosethatareleftout,thosethatfeelangry,thosethatarenotparticipating.Globalizationhasnotbeeninclusive.ThesecondAchilles’heeliscomplexity.Agrowingfragility,agrowingbrittleness.Whathappensinoneplaceveryquicklyaffectseverythingelse.Thisisasystemicrisk,systemicshock.We’veseenittothefinancialcrisis.We’veseenitinthepandemicflu.Itwillbecomevirulentandit’ssomethingwehavetobuildresilienceagainst.Alotofthisisdrivenbywhat’shappeningintechnology.Therehavebeenhugeleaps.Therewillbeamillion-foldimprovementinwhatyoucangetforthesamepriceincomputingby2030.That’swhattheexperienceofthelast20yearshasbeen.Itwillcontinue.Ourcomputers,oursystemswillbeasprimitiveastheApollo’sarefortoday.OurmobilephonesaremorepowerfulthanthetotalApollospaceengine.Ourmobilephonesaremorepowerfulthansomeofthestrongestcomputersof20yearsago.Sowhatwillthisdo?Itwillcreatehugeopportunitiesintechnology.Miniaturizationaswell.Therewillbeinvisiblecapacity.Invisiblecapacityinourbodies,inourbrains,andintheair.Thisisadustmiteonananoreplica.Thissortofabilitytodoeverythinginnewwaysunleashespotential,notleastintheareaofmedicine.Thisisastemcellthatwe’vedevelopedhereinOxford,fromanembryonicstemcell.Wecandevelopanypartofthebody.Increasingly,overtime,thiswillbepossiblefromourownskin—abletoreplicatepartsofthebody.Fantasticpotentialforregenerativemedicine.Idon’tthinktherewillbeaspecialOlympicslongafter2030,becauseofthiscapacitytoregeneratepartsofthebody.Butthequestionis,”Whowillhaveit?”Theothermajordevelopmentisgoingtobeintheareaofwhatcanhappeningenetics.Thecapacitytocreate,asthismousehasbeengeneticallymodified,somethingwhichgoesthreetimesfaster,lastsforthreetimeslonger,wecouldreduce,asthismousecan,totheageofourequivalentof80years,usingaboutthesameamountoffood.Butwillthisonlybeavailableforthesuperrich,forthosethatcanaffordit?Areweheadedforaneweugenics?Willonlythosethatareabletoafforditbeabletobethissuperraceofthefuture?Sothebigquestionforusis,“Howdowemanagethistechnologicalchange?”Howdoweensurethatitcreatesamoreinclusivetechnology,atechnologywhichmeansthatnotonlyaswegrowolder,thatwecanalsogrowwiser,andthatwe’reabletosupportthepopulationsofthefuture?Oneofthemostdramaticmanifestationsoftheseimprovementswillbemovingfrompopulationspyramids,towhatwemighttermpopulationcoffins.Thereisunlikelytobeapensionoraretirementagein2030.Thesewillberedundantconcepts.Andthisisn’tonlysomethingoftheWest.Themostdramaticchangeswillbetheskyscrapertypeofnewpyramids,thatwilltakeplaceinChinaandinmanyothercountries.Soforgetaboutretirementifyou’reyoung.Forgetaboutpensions.Thinkaboutlifeandwhereit’sgoingtobegoing.Ofcourse,migrationwillbecomeevenmoreimportant.Thewarontalent,theneedtoattractpeopleatallskillranges,topushusaroundinourwheelchairs,butalsotodriveoureconomies.Ourinnovationwillbevital.Theemploymentintherichcountrieswillgodownfromabout800toabout700millionofthesepeople.Thiswouldimplyamassiveleapinmigration.Sotheconcerns,thexenophobicconcernsoftoday,ofmigration,willbeturnedontheirhead,aswesearchforpeopletohelpussortoutourpensionsandoureconomiesinthefuture.Andthen,thesystemicrisks.Weunderstandthatthesewillbecomemuchmorevirulent,thatwhatweseetoday,isthisinterweavingofsocieties,ofsystems,fastenedbytechnologies,andhastenedbyjust-in-timemanagementsystems.Smalllevelsofstockpushresilienceintootherpeople’sresponsibility.Thecollapseinbiodiversity,climatechange,pandemics,financialcrises:thesewillbethecurrencythatwewillthinkabout.Andsoanewawarenesswillhavetoarise,ofhowwedealwiththese,howwemobilizeourselves,inanewway,andcometogetherasacommunitytomanagesystemicrisk.It’sgoingtorequireinnovation.It’sgoingtorequireanunderstandingthatthegloryofglobalizationcouldalsobeitsdownfall.Thiscouldbeourbestcenturyeverbecauseoftheachievements.Oritcouldbeourworst.Andofcourseweneedtoworryabouttheindividuals.Particularlytheindividualsthatfeelthatthey’veb