宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究(1)

宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究BUSINESSANDPROJECTRISKMANAGEMENTOFREALESTATETRUSTUNDERTHEMACRO-CONTROL学校：上海交通大学学院：上海高级金融学院专业：工商管理（MBA）作者：赵培栋导师：王政、蒋展学号：1113809082班级：M1138091答辩日期：2013年月日上海交通大学学位论文原创性声明本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文，是本人在导师的指导下，独立进行研究工作所取得的成果。除文中已经注明引用的内容外，本论文不包含任何其他个人或集体已经发表或撰写过的作品成果。对本文的研究做出重要贡献的个人和集体，均已在文中以明确方式标明。本人完全意识到本声明的法律结果由本人承担。学位论文作者签名：日期：年月日上海交通大学学位论文版权使用授权书本学位论文作者完全了解学校有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，同意学校保留并向国家有关部门或机构送交论文的复印件和电子版，允许论文被查阅和借阅。本人授权上海交通大学可以将本学位论文的全部或部分内容编入有关数据库进行检索，可以采用影印、缩印或扫描等复制手段保存和汇编本学位论文。本学位论文属于：保密□，在年解密后适用本授权书。不保密□。（请在以上方框内打“√”）学位论文作者签名：指导教师签名：日期：年月日日期：年月日上海交通大学MBA学位论文宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究摘要目前，中国房地产市场面临严峻而复杂的外部环境，2013年新近颁布的“新国五条”进一步加强了房地产市场调控的政策措施，随着各地新国五条细则的出台，房地产市场必将迎来新一轮的变动，房地产市场各利益相关方包括开发商、投资者、购房者和金融机构都受到较大冲击。在这样的大背景下，作为信托从业人员，我们需要认真冷静的思考房地产信托业务走向，这不仅仅是一个单纯业务品种发展问题，而是一个涉及信托公司资产管理业务转型的核心关键问题，更是一个关系到信托业生死存亡的行业定位问题。本文试图对于宏观调控下的房地产信托业务和项目风险控制进行研究探讨，首先分析了不同类型的调控政策，对于房地产信托业务的影响以及所产生的风险，其次提出了需要抓住房地产行业内在的供需驱动因素，做到对于行业更主动，更长远的把握。最后基于ANP网络层次分析法给出了具体到项目的房地产信托项目风险测量模型，以此期望为房地产信托业务从业人员提供一个体系化的把握房地产信托业务及具体项目风险的分析脉络。关键词：宏观调控，风险管理，房地产信托，ANP网络层次分析法上海交通大学MBA学位论文宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究BUSINESSANDPROJECTRISKMANAGEMENTOFREALESTATETRUSTUNDERTHEMACRO-CONTROLABSTRACTAtpresent,realestatemarketinChinaisfacingsevereandcomplexexternalenvironment.Thenewlyenacted“newfiveregulationsofthepropertymarket”furtherstrengthenedcontrolpoliciesandmeasuresofrealestatemarket.Withdetailedrulesof“newfiveregulationsofthepropertymarket”releasing,realestatemarketisboundtousherinanewroundofchanges.Allplayersincludingrealestatedevelopers,investors,homebuyersandfinancialinstitutionsaresubjecttolargeshocks.Insuchacontext,astrustbusinesspractitioners,weneedtothinkseriouslyabouttherealestatetrustbusiness.Thisisnotjustasimpleproblemaboutbusinessvariety,butacoreissueinvolvingtransformationofassetmanagementfortrustcompanies,andmoreisamatterofindustrypositioningissuesoflifeanddeathbythetrustindustry.Thispaperinvestigatedrealestatetrustbusinessandprojectriskmanagementundergovernment’smacrocontrol.Firstly,Ianalyzedtheinfluencesandrisksinvolvedwhicharisingfromdifferenttypesofcontrolpolicies,andthenIstatedthatweshouldfocusonsupplyanddemanddriverswhichareinherentinrealestatebusiness.Finally,IpresentedariskestimationmodelofrealestatetrustprojectonthebasisofAnalyticNetworkProcess(ANP),forthepurposeofprovidingasystemofrealestatetrustbusinessandprojectriskanalysisforpractitioners.KEYWORDS:macro-control,riskmanagement,realestatetrust,anp上海交通大学MBA学位论文宏观调控下的房地产信托业务与项目风险管理研究目录第一章前言·······································································································································11.1问题的提出和研究意义··········································································································11.2研究思路··································································································································11.3国内外相关研究综述··············································································································21.4结构安排··································································································································2第二章我国房地产政策传导分析···································································································42.1房地产信托业务简介··············································································································42.2政策传导分析··························································································································42.2.1政策到市场·······················································································································42.2.2市场到业务·······················································································································52.3金融政策··································································································································62.3.1概述···································································································································62.3.2历年政策及分析···············································································································62.3.3总结·································································································································102.4土地政策································································································································102.4.1概述·································································································································102.4.2历年政策及分析·············································································································112.4.3总结·································································································································142.5税收政策································································································································142.5.1概述·············