黄世忠--报表分析逻辑切入点

2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis1基于战略的报表分析新思维第一讲报表分析逻辑切入点黄世忠教授厦门国家会计学院副院长电话：0592-257800313906016965电子邮件：[e-mail]单位网址:研讨要点与目的•阐述报表分析的逻辑切入点–基于M公司与GFC公司的案例分析•案例分析–德隆是被郎咸平搞垮的吗?–中石油应否“海归”？–电信业“春天的故事”还能唱响多久?•本讲旨在阐明报表分析的常见误区，把握报表分析的逻辑体系2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis3从一道考倒全世界顶级MBA的难题看财务报表分析的逻辑切入点•三大核心问题–问题1•M公司与GFC公司孰优孰劣？孰强孰弱？–问题2•M公司与GFC公司股票市值的反差原因何在？–问题3•如何评价M公司与GFC公司的业绩？2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis4雇员规模：M公司v.sGFC公司55.7108103.5020406080100120M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis5经营规模--TA:M公司v.sGFC公司67679688329777010002000300040005000600070008000900010000M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis6经营规模--Sales:M公司v.sGFC公司284322523652160100020003000400050006000M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis7现金流量(CFFOA)：M公司v.sGFC公司1451585204860100200300400500600M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis8股票市值：M公司v.sGFC公司25412914709931050010001500200025003000M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis9财务实力--NA：M公司v.sGFC公司5406105328040100200300400500600700800900M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis10经营绩效--NI：M公司v.sGFC公司7810062490102030405060708090100M公司GFC公司200220032020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis11新经济与旧经济的强烈反差•财务数据：GFCv.sM(2002)项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数36.535.036.8108.35.0521.45资产总额3,7182,9522,1928,86267613.11销售收入1,8601,6261,7505,23628418.44现金流量1711862085651453.90股票市值2001963137092,5410.28股东权益68564085325400.99净利润17-105562780.79ROE25%-18%13%12%14%0.862020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis12新经济与旧经济的强烈反差•财务数据：GFCv.sM(2003)项目名称GFC公司M公司倍数GFC合计M雇员人数32.332.838.4103.55.718.2资产总额4,4853,0462,2469,77779612.3销售收入1,8551,6421,7195,21632216.2现金流量762022084861583.1股票市值2182594539302,9150.32股东权益2521174348036101.32净利润384.95.648.599.90.49ROE15%4%1.3%6%16%0.382020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis13收入质量(QualityofRevenue)0500100015002000199920002001200220032004MGFDC(Euro)2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis14收入质量(QualityofRevenue)050100150200250300199920002001200220032004GFDM2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis15利润质量(QualityofProfit)GM:-89;995;-146;Ford:-1057;-1153;-8857799473789590604561738287235-55-105355779-747425-80-60-40-20020406080100120199920002001200220032004MGFDC(Euro)2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis16利润质量(QualityofProfit)-100-50050100150200250199920002001200220032004GFCM2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis17毛利率(GrossProfitMargin)(2003)18%7%21%6%20%19%82%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%GG-AutoFF-AutoDCDC-AutoM毛利率2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis18资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2002)项目名称GFCM余额%余额%余额%余额%现金及等价物2145.829710.11456.638757.2应收款项1,41638.11,05035.681537.2517.5存货1002.7702.41838.371.0长期投资57315.443314.71095.014221.0固定资产3589.636412.375534.4233.4GW&无形资产1463.9662.2582.6172.5其他资产91224.567222.71275.9497.4资产总计3,7191002,9521002,1921006761002020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis19资产质量(QualityofAssets)(2003)项目名称GFCM余额%余额%余额%余额%现金及等价物54812.233711.11808.049061.6应收款项1,93643.21,26641.694041.9516.4存货1092.4923.01888.460.8长期投资601.4301.01104.913717.2固定资产72616.275424.872232.1222.8GW&无形资产481.1722.4592.6344.3其他资产1,05823.549516.1472.1566.9资产总计4,4851003,0461002,2461007961002020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis20财务风险(DebtRatio)0%50%100%200220022003200223%98%98%81%200323%94%96%80%微软通用福特奔驰-克莱斯2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis21现金流量趋势:G(12v.s73)140-82271-74214-97130-86171-7476-73131-78-100-500501001502002503001998199920002001200220032004CF-OCF-CE2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis22CFFOAv.sFreeCashFlowEBITDA（扣除利息、税收、折旧和摊销前的利润）-Depreciationandamortization(折旧和摊销）-Taxes（税收）=Netoperatingprofitaftertax(NOPAT)(税后经营利润）-Capitalexpenditures(资本性支出）-ChangesintheWCR(营运资本变动需要）=FreecashFlow(自由现金流量）2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis23现金流量趋势:F(69v.s63)217-74274-71334-74219-63186-68202-77187-68-100-500501001502002503003501998199920002001200220032004CF-OCF-CE2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis24现金流量趋势:C(12v.s73)195-218211-344187-351155-321180-293208-284150-332-400-300-200-10001002003001998199920002001200220032004CF-OCF-CE2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis25现金流量趋势:M84-7121-6114-9134-11145-8158-9-20020406080100120140160199819992000200120022003CF-OCF-CE2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis26财务报表分析的逻辑切入点权责发生制会计管理当局动机盈利质量现金流量分析资产负债质量核心盈利可持续性、成长性、现金流量调整与调节应计制向现金流动制的转换确认和计量资产、负债、股东权益决策财务契约设计估值与投资信贷分析财务风险评估审计风险评估差错歪曲报表失真问题报表分析纬度报表分析用途2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis27德隆是被郎咸平搞跨的吗？•三大报表的功能区分–资产负债表–利润表–现金流量表•从“德隆系”的垮台看证券监管的误区–基于新疆屯河的案例分析2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis28中石油（0857.HK）股价周线图巴菲特撤退2020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis29中石油（0857.HK）股价月线图EPS:0.59;PE:8.472020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis30中石油业绩因何突出？－OperatingPerformancePerspective01000200030004000净利润税项营业收入净利润5464554696961029税项270231222281426营业收入2453241324443038388620002001200220032004雇员人数:24.73万人，雇员薪金成本223.1，其中养老金24.72020/5/4LogicsofFinancialStatementAnalysis31中石油业绩因何突出？－OperatingPerformancePerspect