洪灾风险分析的国内外研究现状及展望_防洪减灾过程风险分析研究现状

18120092JOURNALOFNATURALDISASTERSVol.18,No.1Feb.,2009:2007-07-15;:2007-10-13:(06JJ2061);;(05A041).:(1964-),,,,,.E2mail:[e-mail]:100424574(2009)0120150208(),,,,(,410081):,,:;;;:X43:AReviewandprospectofresearchonfloodriskanalysisathomeandabroad():statrusquoofresearchonriskanalysisofflooddisasterpreventionandreductionMAODe2hua,HEXi2guang,PENGPeng,HEZi2lin,WUFeng(CollegeofResourcesandEnvironmentScience,HunanNormalUniversity,Changsha410081,China)Abstract:Theresearchstatusofriskanalysisconcerningwiththeprocessoffloodcontrolanddisasterreductionwassummarizedthatconsistsofengineeringriskanalysis,investmentriskanalysisanddecision2makingriskanalysisinfloodcontrol.Theengineeringriskanalysisinfloodcontrolrelatestoriskanalysisofdikeengineeringriskanalysis,reservoirdamsecurityandoperatingriskanalysisoffloodcontrol.Theinvestmentriskanalysisinvolvestoriskanal2ysisofexpenses,benefitandriskmanagementetc.Keywords:processoffloodcontrolanddisasterreduction;engineeringriskanalysis;investmentriskanalysis;deci2sion-makingriskanalysis,1,1.142070,,,,[1-3]Tung[4-6],,,,Duckstein[7],,4,;,,MCPilarczykKrystian[8].[9],[10],[11],[12],,,;[13],[14],,[15],MC[16][17],,[18],[19],[20][21][22-24],,,,[25],[26],,,[27-32]1.2,10a,[33],,,,[34-37],,[38-39]Yazicigil[40],,Karlsson[41],5Salmon[42-43],[44-46],[47-49][50-51],JC;JC[52]JC[53-54],JC;[55]P-,JCMC:,JCMC[56][57][58-61]Wiener,Ito,;,,;,,[62][63]:;,[64]1511:(),,[65],,[66]3,,[67],:,[68],[69][70-71][72],[73],,,1.3[74][75][76],,[77-78],[79],2,,,,,()()[80],,()[81-82],[83]:[84],,,[85]:;,?,CIM(controlledintervalandmemory)[86-88][89][90],Ouellette[91],,Mitsio2poulis[92],[93],,[94-95][96-98][99],[100],[101],(FCE)[102],(),25118[103],;,[104],[105],3,:,,,[106],,[107](WBS)(RBS)CIM,[108],,[109],,,3-,[110-111]Krgyszmofowicz[112],Beckor[113]Orlovaki[114],ComoHaimes[115-116],Loaiciga[117],Duckstein[118]Nardiri[119],Mohan[120]5,Simonovic[121-122]Mousavi[123-124]Pontryagin,HuZhenpeng[125],JiChangming[126],,[127][128]-,,,[129],[130-131],[132-133],,[134-135],,[136],[137](decisionsupportsystem,DDS)[138],[139],Simonovic[140],,11[141],1992DSS,1994,,[142-146][147-148][149][150][151],3511:(),GIS[152-154],PowerBuilder[155],ActiveX[156],[157],[158],EM[159],WebGIS[160]:[1]SzidarovszkyF,DucksteinL,BogardiI.Leveesystemreliabilityalongaconfluencereach[J].JMech.Eng.Div.ASCE,1975,101(EM5):609-622.[2]WoodE.F.Ananalysisoffloodleveereliability[J].WaterResour.res,1977,13(3):665-671.[3]U.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineers.Evaluatingthereliabilityofexistinglevees,TechnicalLetter[M].Washington,D.C.,1999.[4]TungY2K,MaysLW.Riskmodelsforfloodleveedesign[J].WaterResour.Res,1981a,17(4):833-841.[5]TungY2K,MaysLW.Optimalrisk2baseddesignoffloodleveesystems[J].WaterResour.Res,1981b,17(4):843-852.[6]TungY2K.Effectsofuncertaintiesonoptimalrisk2baseddesignofhydraulicstructure[J].JWaterResour.Plan.Manag,1987,113(5):709-722.[7]DucksteinL,BogardiI.Applicationofreliabilitytheorytohydraulicengineeringdesign[J].JHydrau.Div.Proc.ASCE,1981,107(HY7):799-815.[8]PilarczykKrystianW.Dikesandrevetmentsdesign,maintenanceandsafetyassessment[M].BalkemaPress,1998.[9].[J].,1990,(2):55-62.[10],.[J].,1994,22(6):98-100.[11].[J].,1995,(2):127-137.[12],,,.[J].,1995,(3):1-7.[13],,,.[J].,2003,(4):40-45.[14],,.[J].,1998,26(3):71-75.[15],,.[J].,1998,(7):64-67.[16],,,.[J].,1999,27(2):22-27.[17].[J].,2001,28(4):1-3.[18],.[J].,2001,18(2):7-10.[19],.[J].,2002,23(21):15-17.[20],.[J].,2002,(7):98-103.[21],,,.[J].,2002,(6):113-117.[22],,.[J].,2003,(4):94-100.[23],,.[J].,2003,(6):55-56.[24],.[J].,2003,(8):79-85.[25],,,.[J].,2003,(7):11-14.[26],,.[J].,2004,(2):83-87.[27].[J].,2002,(8):82-86.[28].[M].:,1990.[29],,.[J].,2002,(12):56-62.[30],,,.[J].,2004,(1):52-56.[31],,,.[J].,2004,(11):46-53,61.[32],,.[J].,2004,(12):46-50.[33]RobillFELL,DavidS.BOWLES,LorenR.ANDERSON.().[J].,2002,(1):47-50.[34]ICOLDBULLETIN.RiskAssessmentinDamSafetyManagement[R].Aug,2002.[35].BCHydro[J].,2000,(4):7-11.[36]DougJohnson()..,2001,(1):45-50.[37]P..[J].,2004,(6):31-33.[38],.[J].,2002,2(10):55-59.[39],.[J].,A,2003,(11):59-62.[40]YazicigilH,HouckMH,ToebesGH.Dailyoperationofamultipurposereservoirsystems[J].WaterResour.Res,1983,19(3):727-738.[41]KarlssonPO,HaimesYY.Riskassessmentofextremeevents:application[J].WaterResourcePlanningandManagement,1989,115(3):299-320.[42]SalmonGM,HartfordDND.Riskanalysisfordamsafety:PartI[J].InternationalWaterPower&DamConstruction,1995,(3):42-47.[43]SalmonGM,HartfordDND.Riskanalysisfordamsafety:Part[J].InternationalWaterPower&DamConstruction,1995,(4):38-39.45118[44]BergaL.NewTrendsinHydrologicalSafety[A].DamSafety[C].Rotterdam:Balkema,1998,1099-1116.[45]KrenzerH.Theuseofriskanalysistosupportdamsafetydecisionandmanagement[A].ICOLD.TheProceedingsof21thInt.CongressonLargeDams[C].Beijing:theInternationalCommissiononLargeDams,2000,799-801.[46]RettemeirK,FalkenhagenB,KongeterJ.Riskassessment2newtrendsinGermany[A].ICOLD.TheProceedingsof21thInt.CongressonLargeDams[C].Beijing:theInternationalCommissiononLargeDams,2000,625-641.[47],.[J].,2002,20(4):8-10.[48],.[J].,2003,(3):7-12.[49],,,.[J].,2003a,