中国电力工业发展战略(1)

1中国电力工业发展战略ElectricitySectorDevelopmentStrategyinChina吴吟WU,YINApril23rd,2004BEIJING2主要内容MAINPOINTSˆ1.电力工业现状1.Theactualityofpowerindustryˆ2.当前电力形势2.Theactualityofpowersupplyanddemandˆ3.电力工业发展战略3.Futuredevelopmentstrategyforpowerindustry3中国煤炭资源分布情况DistributionofcoalresourceinChina4新甘宁青晋陕蒙西南中南京津冀华东东北中国煤炭流向示意图DiagramofcoalflowinChina51.电力工业现状1.Theactualityofpowerindustry6电力工业快速发展Powerindustrygrowingrapidly00.511.522.533.54195219571962196719721977198219871992199720022000年容量3亿千瓦1995年容量2亿千瓦1987年容量1亿千瓦2003年容量3.86亿千瓦7电力装机结构Thestructureofpowerstationinstallcapacity74%24%2%煤电thermo水电hydro核电nuclear87.52%6.15%383g/kWh500kV300MW600MW20029.64%6.61%471g/kWh110kV220kV50MW100MW1978线损率Transferconsumption厂用电率Selfconsumption供电煤耗Coalconsumption电网电压等级Voltage单机容量Capacitypergeneration电力工业技术水平得到较大提高Technologyofpowerindustryhavebeenapproved9水电建设工程Hydropowerconstructionprojects10西电东送工程Theprojectofelectricitydiversionfromwesternregionstoeasternregions西电东送“十五”进展情况示意图东北新疆西北西藏川渝华北山东华东福建华中南方海南三峡“三西”火电基地500万千瓦台湾广西114万贵州430万广东新增1088万千瓦120/420300万云南160万龙滩210万鲤鱼江60万澜沧江等流域水电200万长江上游及川渝地区水电100万260/76080万132万天生桥黄河上游水电新增300万千瓦新增500万千瓦西电东送“十五”进展情况示意图东北新疆西北西藏川渝华北山东华东福建华中南方海南三峡“三西”火电基地500万千瓦台湾广西114万广西114万贵州430万贵州430万广东新增1088万千瓦120/420120/420300万300万云南160万云南160万龙滩210万龙滩210万鲤鱼江60万鲤鱼江60万澜沧江等流域水电200万澜沧江等流域水电200万长江上游及川渝地区水电100万260/760260/76080万80万132万天生桥132万天生桥天生桥黄河上游水电新增300万千瓦新增500万千瓦11农网改造工程Theprojectofruralelectricnetworktransformation12电力体制改革总体目标theoverallobjectivesofelectricpowersystemreformˆ打破垄断，引入竞争，提高效率，降低成本，健全电价机制，优化资源配置，促进电力发展，推进全国联网，构建政府监管下的政企分开、公平竞争、开放有序、健康发展的电力市场体系。ˆTobreakupmonopoly,introducecompetition,improveefficiency,lowercost,perfectpowerpricingmechanism,optimizeresourceallocation,promoteelectricpowerdevelopment,pushaheadwithnationwidenetconstruction,andestablishapowermarketsystem.Thissystem,regulatedbythegovernment,shouldencompassfaircompetition,orderlyopeningup,healthydevelopmentandtheprincipleofseparatinggovernmentfunctionsfromenterprisefunctions.13电力体制改革厂网分开示意图chartofpowersystemreform»ªÄܼ¯ÍŹ«Ë¾»ªµç¼¯ÍŹ«Ë¾ÁúÔ´¼¯ÍŹ«Ë¾µçÁ¦¹«Ë¾Í¶×Ê´óÌƼ¯ÍŹ«Ë¾·¢µç×ʲú¹ã¶«µçÍø×ʲúº£ÄϵçÍø×ʲúÄÏ·½µçÍø¹«Ë¾»ª±±µçÍø¹«Ë¾¶«±±µçÍø¹«Ë¾»ª¶«µçÍø¹«Ë¾»ªÖеçÍø¹«Ë¾Î÷±±µçÍø¹«Ë¾¹ú¼ÒµçÍø¹«Ë¾µçÍø×ʲú¹ú¼ÒµçÁ¦¹«Ë¾NECNNCSNC14电力体制改革促进煤炭工业发展Thereformofpowersystemwillimprovethedevelopmentofcoalminingindustryˆ电力工业体制改革，推行“厂网分开，竞价上网”，促进了煤电联营。ˆThereformofpowersystemshaspromotedjointventureofcoalandpowerenterprisesbyadoptingthepolicyof“Separationofpowerplantsfromthepowernetwork,andcompetitionamongpowerenterprisestoincorporatetheirpowerintothepowernetwork”.15ˆ神华模式：控股和建设电站并举SHENHUAmodel:simultaneousstockholdingandbuildingofpowerstationsˆ山西焦煤模式：煤矿企业建电站SHANXICOKINGCOALCO.model:buildingofpowerstationbycoalminesˆ鲁能模式：电力企业办煤矿LUNENGmodel:buildingofcoalminesbypowerenterprisesˆ淮南模式：合作新建煤矿和电站HUAINANmodel:jointventuretoestablishthenewcoalminesandpowerstations煤电联营是发展方向Thetrend:coal-electricityjointventure162.当前电力形势2.Theactualityofpowersupplyanddemand17电力需求处于较快增长阶段powerdemandinarapidlyincreasingphase00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.919961997199819992000200120022003发电与供热用煤coalforpower&heating10亿吨Gigaton18电力供应紧张状况Theactualityofpowersupplyshortageˆ2002年6月份以来，用电增速已连续21个月保持在两位数字以上。ˆSinceJune2002,thegrowthrateofthepowerconsumptionhasbeenmaintainedatdoubledigitsfor21monthsinarow.ˆ电力紧张问题又成为经济运行中的突出矛盾，也是社会各界关注的焦点话题。ˆTheshortageofpowersupplybecomesaprominentbottleneckineconomicoperation,aswellasahottopicamongallwalksoflifeonceagain.19电力供应紧张的主要原因Themainreasonsoftheshortageofpowersupplyˆ一是经济特别是高耗能产业快速发展，成为带动电力增长的主导因素；ˆFirstly,thefastdevelopmentoftheeconomy,especiallyhighenergyconsumingindustries,istheleadingfactordrivinguppowerdemand.ˆ二是城乡电网改造后，居民生活用电大幅度增加；ˆSecondly,aftertherebuildingoftheurbanandruralpowernetwork,residents’powerconsumptionforlivingusageisincreasingdramatically.ˆ三是受水情影响，水力发电出力下降；ˆThirdly,influencedbythewatercircumstances,powergeneratedbyhydrohasdecreased.20电力供应紧张的主要原因Themainreasonsbehindtheshortpowersupplyˆ四是上个世纪末本世纪初电力建设相对不足；ˆFourthly,theelectricpowerconstructionattheendoflastcenturyandthebeginningofthiscenturywasrelativelyinsufficient.ˆ五是受煤炭供应和运输制约，部分火电厂能力得不到充分发挥。ˆFifthly,constrainedbycoalsupplyandthetransportation,thecapacityofsomethermalpowerplantscannotbebroughtintofullplay.21应对能源短缺的措施themethodstotreatsuchsituationˆ为此，中国政府已经采取了一系列宏观调控政策，预计未来2～3年内，电力供需矛盾可以得到缓解。ˆAgainstthisbackdrop,theChinesegovernmenthasalreadyadoptedaseriesofmacroregulatingpoliciesanditcanbeexpectedthatinthecomingtwotothreeyears,thecontradictioncausedbytheimbalancebetweenthepowersupplyanddemandcanberelaxed.223.电力工业发展战略3.Futuredevelopmentstrategyforpowerindustry23电力发展的战略选择Strategicchoiceofpowerindustrydevelopmentˆ我国煤炭资源丰富，经济可开发水能资源居世界首位，风能、太阳能等新能源潜力巨大。ˆChinahasrichcoalresources.Itleadstheworldinhydroresourcesthatcanbedevelopedeconomically.Italsohashugepotentialinwind,solarandothernewenergies.ˆ以煤炭发电为基础，水电、气电、核电、新能源发电全面推进是未来中国电源结构的基本特征。ˆThebasicfeatureoffutureChina’spowerstructureistotakecoal-firedgenerationasthefoundation,andpursuecomprehensiveprogressofhydro,gas,nuclear,andnewenergygeneration.242020年远景目标展望Prospectofthelong