我国油菜产需形势分析及产业发展对策

200732007,29(1):101105Chinesejournalofoilcropsciences(,430062):,,,,,:;;;:S565.4:A:10079084(2007)01010105StrategyforrapeseedindustrydevelopmentbasedontheanalysisofrapeseedproductionanddemandinChinaWANGHan-zhong(OilCropsResearchInstitute,ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences,Wuhan430062,China)Abstract:Thecurrentstatusoftheproduction,consumption,importandexportofrapeseedproductsinChinawasanalyzed.Basedonthesedata,theperspectiveandpotentialofChineserapeseedindustrywasdiscussed.Man2yfactors,suchasthegapbetweenvegetableoilproductionanddemand,bio-dieselindustrydevelopment,theuti2lizationofmarginallandswhicharenotplantedinwinter,thetechnologydevelopmentandforeigninvestment,willfacilitatethedevelopmentofrapeseedindustryinChina.Advicesandstrategiesforovercomingthedisadvantagesandrealizingtheindustrializationpotentialwereproposed.Keywords:Rapeseed;Rapeseedoil;Market;Industryperspective,2001/20022005/2006,,23312735,17%;36034855,34.7%;33494426,32%;13201705,29%;19982612,30%[1]20052,,,,,,,30%,650,,1,,,,,,,,20061011,30%,,,,:20070115::(1964),,,,,,11.11.1.1,720.21191,()31.1%26.55%,(40.31%),(36.15%)(31.82%)200520012.6%15.2%[2],,200520011597.5kg/hm21770kg/hm2,10.8%,90kg/hm2,165kg/hm2,,1605kg/hm21.1.2,2005/2006,2000/200143.3%85.54%[3]14,200216.3%,64.87mol/g,32%,37.7%;20057.91%,46mol/g,60.48%39.92%[4],,2005,77.33.12,2.7,,[4]1.1.3,20012004,4230427542904320,150180,47.9%45.6%49.3%48.6%[5],15,,,,,,,,,,,,,52.50%[4],,,,1.1.4,,,,,2005,94%93.88%90%90%,70%,,,,20052400kg/hm2,,1305kg/hm2,1.1.52005,,200520%,2006(),,,,,,;,,,;,,450,2006,,,,1.21.2.1,2001/200214542005/20062138,10.59%,2006/200723212005/2006,2012007,29(1)16kg,2700,19kg(13.5),17.7kg(65),,,,10.9%,9.2,2001/200229%2005/200620.1%[6]1.2.2,,20051000,,(1),,,,2003/20041.52005/200610,36.810,,2006201()Table1OilseedsandvegetableoilimportofChinainrecentyears(tenthousandtons)2001/022002/032003/042004/052005/06Soybean1038.52141.71693.32580.22750Rapeseed77.55.141.931.665Soybeanoil55.1171.2274.5173.9200Palmoil247.5353.1371436.3475Palmkerneloil9.713.91522.525Coconutoil13.313.311.413.217Rapeseedoil6.112.736.820.910:FAS,USDA,20067DatawasfromFAS,USDA,July200622.1,,,,,,,,,,2.2,2005318.4,2006606.9[7],80%[8],,2001/20021036.82005/20061425,37.4%,2006/20071565[9],,20068,263330,25.5%[1],,,2.3,,,3085.58[10],572.2664.0143.85177.68[2]49.32,1578.72(,),193.4[11],,726.7,26502.4,,,200014%,200535%,200644%301:,,ADM,,,,,2.5,,200574.3%,1770kg/hm2,45%11,54.72%0361,,10,,2250kg/hm2,50%33.1,,,,,,,,,,,3.2,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,[12],,,3.3,,,,,3.4,,,,,,;,;,:,!:[1]ForeignAgricultureService,U.S.DepartmentofAgricul2ture.Oilseeds:WorldMarketsandTrade.Sept.2006.[2],[3].(2000/012005/06).[4].2005.4012007,29(1)[5].2005.:,2005.11.[6]ForeignAgricultureService,U.S.DepartmentofAgricul2ture.Oilseeds:WorldMarketsandTrade.August2006.[7],[8].[J].,2005,27(4):100105.[9]ForeignAgricultureService,U.S.DepartmentofAgricul2ture.Oilseeds:WorldMarketsandTrade.July2006.[10].(2001).:,2002.9.[11],=&pass=&danwei=.[12].[J].,2005,27(2):7476.501: