24麦肯锡给医药行业的报告

McKinseywascommissionedinQ1,2003to:•providededicatedeffortinconductingin-depthmarketsurveyandcollectdetailedinformationfrom4citieswithin2provincestoidentifythekeygrowthdriversinChina’sbroadmarket;•4productcategorieswereincluded:G.I.(Motilium),OBGY(Gyno.),NailInfection(Sporanox)&Vertigo(Sibelium)•provideobjectiveassessmentaboutthebroadmarketopportunity(notincludinganyurbancentres);•providebusinessmodel/proposalforXJPtocapturethebroadmarketMcKinseyBroadMarketStudyProcess•Projectdesign(Q1,2003)•ProjectreviewwithlocalandregionalJ-Cteam(Apr.03)•Surveymarketselection(Apr.03)•Fieldworkin2citiesinShandong(May03)•1stinterimreport(mid-June03)•Fieldworkin2citiesinSichuan(mid-June–mid-July03)•2ndinterimreportandKillerIdeaworkshop(endJuly03)•Finalreport(Aug.03)•Presentationtocorporatemanagement(Sept.03)BROADMARKETCANBEDEFINEDASCLASS2HOSPITALSANDBELOWATREGIONALCITYLEVELANDALLHEALTHCAREINSITITUTIONSATCOUNTYLEVELANDBELOWRegionalcityCountyTownVillageClass3hospitalClass2&belowhospitalPharmacyClinicBroadmarketSource:McKinseyanalysisBROADMARKETDRUGSINCLUDEOTCAND“OUTPATIENT”RxDRUGSSource:McKinseyanalysisTargetingeasilydiagnosed,non-lifethreateningdiseasesEasytouseRelativelycheapRelativelysafewithfewsideeffectExamplesOTCMatureNewMotiliumGyno-DaktarinRxOutpatientIn-hospitalSporanox/SibeliumCipramilBroadmarketdrugsMcKinseyKeyFindingsOverallMarketSituationBROADMARKETREPRESENTS94%OFOVERALLDEMANDFORBROADMARKETDRUGSClass3hospitalBroadmarketdrugsalesbreakdownbygeographyPercent*Foronly2accordingcities**DataforonlySichuanprovinceSource:Interviewwithdistributors,hospitals,pharmacies&clinics;McKinseyanalysis191918191624363931202021666%All4citiesBroadmarketrepresents94%ofdemand100%=3.62.31.3BnRMBShandong*Sichuan*332122615242447381528157121%City100%=2162MnRMBCountyTownVillageMotiliumGyno-DaktarinSibelium**BroadmarketSalesbreakdownofXJPproductPercentOtherchannelatcitylevelGDPpercapita:#ofcounty9,1993211,300185,80114CountyiscriticalforbroadmarketDUETOLOWINSURANCECOVERAGEANDRECENTREIMBURSEMENTPOLICIYCHANGES,MOSTPATIENTSPAYBROADMARKETDRUGSBYTHEMSELVESInsurancecoverageinYantai&JiningForthosewithinsurance,theycanusetheirpersonalaccounts(~RMB100~300peryear)tocovertheirbroadmarketdrugexpenseInlooselycontrolledregion(likeYantai),patientscantreatthepersonalaccountsassavingsaccountPatientspayontheirownaftertheaccountbalanceiszeroAmajorityofpopulationdoesnothaveinsuranceTheypaybroadmarketdrugsbythemselvesInsuredSelf-payTotalCityCountyTownVillage3-595-9720-3070-8010-1585-901990100Source:Interview;focusgroup;McKinseyanalysisPATIENTSGOTOPHARMACY/CLINICSFORMINORSYMPTOMSSource:Interview;McKinseyanalysisDriversIncreasedpricesensitivityChangedmedicalinsurancepolicyImprovedhighwayinfrastructureRichinformationaccessTVNewspaperIncreasedlifepaceNotimetovisithospitalPharmaceuticalmarketderegulationpolicyMoreandmorepharmacies&clinicsConvenientlylocatedMiddle-smallhospitalsfindithardtosurviveduetolackofpatientsSeveresymptomsTownhospitalMinorsymptomsLargesthospitalsincityandcountyMiddle-smallhospitalsincityandcountyPharmacy/clinicsRuralpatientsCitypatientsALARGEPROPORTIONOFDRUGSALESCOMESFROMRETAILPHARMACIES;PHARMACYCLERKSBECOMEINFLUENTIAL*40%ofthepatientschangedtheirmindinpharmacySource:Interview;Focusgroup;McKinseyanalysis“Whatmakesyouchangeyourperceiveddrugs?”*–PharmacypatientsurveyPercent,Shandongcitylevel473716Perceiveddrugnotavailable;persuadedbypharmacyclerkPerceiveddrugavailablebutpersuadedbypharmacyclerkChangedmindbymyself“WhenIgotothepharmacywithoutadruginmind,Ijustaskthepharmacyclerktorecommend.ThenIwillcheckthedrug’sintroductionsheet,ifthisdrugcoversmydisease,Iwillhaveatry”–YibincitylevelfocusgroupTotaldrugsalesbreakdownPercentPharmacyHospitalClinics314516323235425233133037%OverallMotiliumGynoDaktarinSibeliumXJPshoulddesignspecialinitiativestotargetpharmacychannelsCLINICSAREPLAYINGIMPORTANTROLEESPECIALLYATCOUNTYANDTOWNANDBELOWSource:Interview;McKinseyanalysisClinics’shareintotaldrugsalesPercentOverallCountyTownVillage36%2634100SichuanShandongCity827%8271003XJPshouldthinkaboutcost-effectivewaytolockinindividualclinic/barefootdoctorsG.I.CategoryReview100~20~20~5~40~30~30*Morethanhalfofpatientsgoingtolargehospitalswillpurchasedrugatretailpharmacies**Brandedgenericdrugsreferringtogenericdrugsthatrunadvertising,creatingbrandawarenessinconsumersSource:Physicianandpharmacyinterviews;McKinseyanalysisFORGIDISFUNCTIONDRUGSASAWHOLETHEREISSIGNIFICANTLATENTDEMAND;PEOPLEGENERALLYSEEKTREATMENTINCLINICSANDPHARMACIESLatentmarketdemand60%oftotalpatientsdonotseekanytreatmentAsmarketleader,increasingawarenessforMotiliumtofurtherboosttreatmentrateisoneofthekeydemandleversSmallclinicsandpharmaciesareimportantchannels75%ofpatientsseekingtreatmentgotoclinicsandpharmaciesTotalincidenceDonotseektreatmentGotolargehospital*GotosmallclinicSelfmedicateatpharmacySeektreatmentNotawarePercentMotilium’smarketshareMotiliumhasavastroomforgrowbecauseofsignificantleakagealongthepatientflow60%ofGIpatientsthatdoseektreatmentCurrentmarketshareof4%whichcouldbegrownfurtherAmongthe40%peoplewhoseekGIt