高华证券美国月度图评：立足于增长和估值分析复杂的宏观数据和下降的相关性

2012年5月4日美国美国月度图评证券研究报告立足于增长和估值分析复杂的宏观数据和下降的相关性截至月末，AAPL、BBT、BRCM、CMCSA、DIS、EMC、PRU和TXT等评级为买入的股票表现领先于标普500指数，但这些股票仍属价格合理的成长型股票，而EBAY、GILD和QCOM也通过了我们单独的优质股票筛选标准，即财务状况稳健、盈利与收入前景稳定、净资产回报率较高且股价下跌次数有限(彭博：GSTHQUAL)。此外，我们的周期性风险回报具有吸引力组合(GSTHCARR，受益于商业活动小幅正常化)中的几只股票也被选为价格合理的成长型股票(CAT,ETN,UPS)和价值型股票(BWA,F,FDX)。价格合理的成长型股票系统软件：OracleCorp.(ORCL,买入*)；油气设备及服务：Halliburton(HAL,买入*)；工业集团：GeneralElectric(GE,买入)。成长型数据处理及外包服务：VisaInc.(V,买入*)；餐饮：StarbucksCorp.(SBUX,买入*)；建筑和农场机械及重卡：CumminsInc.(CMI,买入)。价值型多元化银行：WellsFargo&Co.(WFC,买入*)；综合油气：ExxonMobilCorp.(XOM,买入*)；半导体：AlteraCorp.(ALTR,买入*)。估值缺乏吸引力百货商场：Macy’sInc.(M,中性)；环境与设备服务：WasteManagement(WM,中性)；综合公用事业：ConsolidatedEdison(ED,卖出)。*-位于美洲强力买入名单高思庭(212)[e-mail]高盛集团StuartKaiser,CFA(212)[e-mail]高盛集团AmandaSneider,CFA(212)[e-mail]高盛集团PeterLewis(212)[e-mail]高盛集团BenSnider(212)[e-mail]高盛集团高盛与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或参阅。由非美国附属公司聘用的分析师不是美国FINRA的注册/合格研究分析师。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2012年5月4日美国高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2TableofcontentsTheBottomLineforMay20123Screeningthemarketforsectorsandsub-sectorswithbestgrowthandvalue4Wheretofocuswithinmega-capstocks:Screeningthetop100ongrowth&value8Ourreportcard:GARP,Growth,ValueandUnattractiveScreens13WheretofindSalesandEPSgrowthin201216WheretofindSalesandEPSgrowthin201318Impliedearningsgrowth:Howisthemarketvaluingthesectors?22Howwecalculateimpliedgrowth:InvertingtheDividendDiscountModel(DDM)24Theprospectiveequityriskpremiumandimpliedearningsgrowth25Style-basedmutualfundholdingsanalysis:Core,GrowthandValue26SectorcapitalizationoftheS&P500hasshiftedsignificantlyovertime36...Buthasnotalwayscorrelatedwiththeproportionatecontributiontonetincome37SectorAnalysis39AppendixA:Sector,sub-sectorandcompanyvaluation60AppendixB:Sectorscreensforstylemanagers84Disclosures92Themarkettoday:Whatsectors,stylesandstrategiesareworkingin2012YTD,asofApril30,2012Sources:Compustat,IDC,DowJones-CreditSuisseandGoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.HedgefunddataasofApril23,2012.051015202530INFORMATIONTECHNOLOGYFINANCIALSCONSUMERDISCRETIONARYNasdaqRussell1000GrowthS&P500Russell1000LipperLarge-CapCoreMutualFundIndexRussell2000MATERIALSINDUSTRIALSRussell1000ValueHEALTHCARETELECOMSERVICESDowJones/CreditSuisseLongShortEquityGoldCrudeOilCONSUMERSTAPLESDowJones/CreditSuisseAllHedgeIndexENERGYDowJones/CreditSuisseEventDriven$/EuroBarclays7-10yrTreasuryETFUTILITIESDowJones/CreditSuisseGlobalMacroS&P500MutualFundsBondsHedgeFundsGoldEuroEnergyOil2012年5月4日美国高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3TheBottomLineforMay2012Exhibit1:TheBottomLineOurkeyforecastsfortheS&P500index,recommendedsectorpositioning,andtopthematictradeideas;asofApril30,2012(a)SectorweightingslastrebalancedonJanuary30,2012.(b)USPortfolioStrategybasketsmaybefoundonBloombergbytypingGSTH.TheBloombergpageprovidesreal-timebasketperformanceandcurrentbasketconstituents.ToobtainaccesstoourbasketsonBloomberg,pleasecontactyourGoldmanSachssalesperson.(c)Theabilitytotradethesebasketswilldependuponmarketconditions,includingliquidityandborrowconstraintsatthetimeoftrade.Resultspresentedshouldnotandcannotbeviewedasanindicatoroffutureperformance.Furtherdetailsonperformancecalculationscanbeprovideduponrequest.Sources:Compustat,FactSet,andGoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.S&P500IndexForecastsS&P500PriceTargetsCurrentLevel3Month6Month12Month13981325(-5%)1300(-7%)1350(-3%)S&P500EPSestimates2010A2011A2012E2013EGSPortfolioStrategytop-down$84$96$100$106Growth(%year/year)471537RecommendedSectorPositioningRecommendedGSOverweight/S&P500TotalReturnGSAlphaS&P500SectorPositioningUnderweight(a)WeightYTDYTDInformationTechnology200bp20%20%13bpEnergy200112(12)Financials015200ConsumerStaples0116(12)Industrials01111(6)Materials0311(6)Utilities03(0)0TelecomServices037(8)HealthCare(200)1193ConsumerDiscretionary(200)1118(10)S&P5000bp100%12%(38)bpThematicTradeRecommendationsInitiationOurbesttradeideas:PortfolioStrategythematicbaskets(b)DateReturnBUYCyclicallyAttractiveRisk-RewardBasket(GSTHCARR);SELLS&P500SeeUSThematicViews:BuyUSstockswithcyclicallyattractiverisk-reward(9-Jan-12)9-Jan-122.0%BUYDomesticSalesBasket(GSTHAINT);SELLInternationalSalesBasket(GSTHINTL)See2012Outlook:Strategiesforstagnation(30-Nov-11)30-Nov-11(1.2)%BUYHighQualityBasket(GSTHQUAL);SELLS&P500SeeUSEquityViews:S&P500earningsin2012:$98pershareismorelikelythan$80(03-Oct-11)3-Oct-11(0.2)%BUYHighDividendGrowthBasket(GSTHDIVG);SELLS&P500SeeUSEquityViews:Uncertaintyandfeartrumpfundamentalsandvaluation,fornow(5-Aug-11)5-Aug-11(0.5)%BUYHighSharpeRatioBasket(GSTHSHRP);SELLS&P500See2010Outlook:Cyclicalstart;defensivefinish(7-Dec-09)7-Dec-0913.7%NeutralOverweightUnderweight2012年5月4日美国高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究4Screeningthemarketforsectorsandsub-sectorswithbestgrowthandvalueGrowthMetrics:ExpectedSalesGrowth,EarningsGrowth,Long-TermEPSGrowth,EarningsMomentum(last4-weekestimaterevisions),OperatingMargin,ProfitMargin,ChangeinProfitMargin,ReturnonEquity.ValueMetrics:E