Childrens_environmental_health_climate-change

ClimateChangeandHealthWithspecialreferencetorisksfacingsmallisland-statesAnthonyJMcMichaelNationalCentreforEpidemiology&PopulationHealthTheAustralianNationalUniversityCanberra,ACT0200ClimateChange:the“debate”Skepticismisnowreceding.Weknowthat:•Greenhousegas(GHG)concentrationsareincreasing•GHGsaffecttheclimatesystem(thankfully!)•Worldaveragetemperaturehasrisenrelativelyfastoverthepast30years•Sea-levelriseisgraduallyaccelerating•Manytemperature-sensitivesystems/processeshavechangedoverthepasttwodecadesKilimanjaro1970Kilimanjaro2000IceonKilimanjaro0510151900192019401960198020002020YearArea(km2)ClimateChange:BasicIssues•Earth’sclimatevariesnaturally–becauseofavarietyofcosmologicalandgeologicalprocesses.•“Climatechange”referstoanadditional,andrelativelyrapid,changeinducedbyhumanactions.•Theadditionalchange–severaldegreesCwithinacentury–willdisruptthefoundationsoflifeonEarth.•Ecosystemsandlifeingeneralhaveevolvedwithinanarrowbandofclimatic-environmentalconditions.1960s1970s1980s1990s0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.4OneEarthisavailable(Theplanet’stotalbio-capacity=1.0)NumberofEarthsusedbyhumanityBasedonWackernageletal,2002NumberofEarthsFrom:Steffenetal.Inpress2004AtmosCO2concDomesticatedlandLossoftropforest,woodlandCoastalshrimpfarmsFullyexploitedfisheriesClimatedisastersAvsurfacetemp(NH)AtmosozonelossAtmosCH4concAtmosN2OconcCoastalN2fluxGlobalbiodiversityChangesinenvironmentalindicators,1750-2000Bandofhistoricalclimaticvariability2015190021002000141617181319AverageGlobalTemperature(OC)Year205019501860IPCC(2001)estimatesa1.4-5.8oCincreaseLowHighCentralestimate=2.5oC(plusincreasedvariability)Thispresentsarate-of-changeproblemformanynaturalsystems/processesSea-levelriseovercomingcenturiesfollowing70yearsofexcessgreenhousegasemissions200400600800Timefromstart(years)0.00.51.01.5Sea-levelrise(m)TotalsealevelriseOceanExpansionIce-meltGreenhousegasemissions(“super-Kyoto”action)IPCC2001IPCC,2001Sea-LevelRise,overthecomingmillenniumPeakingin2050SLRRiskstoSmallIsland-States•Coastalflooding•Amplifiedstormsurges•Damagedcoastalinfrastructure(roads,etc.)•Salinationofislandfresh-water(esp.subterraneancells)•Impairedcropproduction•Populationdisplacement:diversehealthrisks(nutrition,infection,mentalhealth)HealtheffectsTemperature-relatedillnessanddeathExtremeweather-relatedhealtheffectsAirpollution-relatedhealtheffectsWaterandfood-bornediseasesVectorborneandrodentbornediseasesHealthEffectsTemperature-relatedillnessanddeathExtremeweather-related(floods,storms,etc.)healtheffectsAirpollution-relatedhealtheffectsHumanexposuresRegionalweatherchanges•Heatwaves•Extremeweather•Temperature•PrecipitationRegionalweatherchanges•Heatwaves•Extremeweather•Temperature••Sea-levelriseContaminationpathwaysTransmissiondynamics----rodentMicrobialchanges:ContaminationpathsTransmissiondynamicsWaterandfood-bornediseasesVectorborneandbornediseasesClimateChangeClimateChangeChangesinagro-ecosystems,hydrologySocioeconomicanddemographicdisruptionEffectsoffoodandwatershortagesMental,nutritional,infectious-diseaseandothereffectsModulatinginfluencesENSOandclimatechange•Theeffectofglobalclimatechangeonthefuturefrequencyand/oramplitudeofElNiñoisuncertain.•Eventsmaybecomemorefrequentormoreintense.•However,evenwithlittlechangeinamplitude,climatechangeislikelytoleadtogreaterextremesofdryingandheavyrainfall,andtoincreasetheriskofdroughtsandfloodsthatoccurwithElNiño[IPCC2001].VECTOR-BORNEDISEASE19902085Estimatedpopulationatriskofdenguefeverunder“standard”climatechangescenario:1990,2085Source.HalesSetal.Lancet(online)6August2002.:KrisEbiModellingMalariaTransmissibilityinZimbabwe.IBaseline20002025Courtesy:KrisEbiModellingMalariaTransmissibilityinZimbabwe.IIBaseline200020252050Courtesy:KrisEbiModellingMalariaTransmissibilityinZimbabwe.IIIWhatShouldHealthMinistriesDo?•Commission/conductnationalassessmentsofriskstohealthfromCC(andSLR)•Participateinemergencymanagementpreparedness(communications,facilities,skills)•Arguethecentralityofpopulationhealthasthereal“bottomline”inthesustainabilitydebate•Makelinkswithotherministries–education,primaryindustry(agriculture),fisheries,developmentplanning,etc.•Highlightthesenseandcost-savingsofadaptationstrategies,tolessenadverseimpactsThat’sAllGlobalaveragetemperature(oC)overthepastmillenniumTheInternationalEnergyAgencypredictsthattheincreaseingreenhousegasemissionsfrom2000to2030inChinaalonewillalmostequaltheincreasefromtheentireindustrializedworld.Chinaistheworld'ssecondlargestemitterofsuchgases,aftertheUnitedStates–eventhoughChina'sper-personemissionsare,forexample,stillonlyone-eighthofthoseintheUnitedStates.GHG:ComingDecadesFrom:Steffenetal.2003PopulationTotalrealGDPForeigndirectinvestmentDammingofriversFertiliserconsumptionMotorvehiclesWateruseMacDonaldsRestaurantsUrbanpopulationInternationaltourismClimatechangeimpactsonrain-fedcerealproduction,2080(IIASA:Fischeretal,2001)NeedtoconvertestimatesofregionalfoodyieldsintoestimatesofchangesinnumbersofmalnourishedpeopleScenario: