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TheDeterminantsofAgglomerationStuartS.Rosenthal主讲人:王虎AbstractThispaperexaminesthemicrofoundationsofagglomerationeconomiesforU.S.manufacturingindustries.WeregresstheEllisonGlaesermeasureofspatialconcentrationonindustrycharacteristicsthatproxyforthepresenceofknowledgespillovers,labormarketpooling,inputsharing,productshippingcosts,andnaturaladvantage.Theanalysisisconductedseparatelyatthezipcode,county,andstatelevels.Theanalysisisconductedseparatelyatthezipcode,county,andstatelevels.相关文献Agrowingempiricalliteraturehasestablishedthatthespatialconcentrationofmanufacturingactivityenhancesproductivityandgrowth.Urbanizationeconomies-economiesofscalearisingfromcitysizeitself-althoughimportant,havesmallereffectsonproductivity.Someoneestablishthatthelevelofagglomerationvariesconsiderablyacrossindustries,asdoesthetendencyofanindustrytocoagglomeratewithotherindustries.TheEllisonGlaeserindexTheEllisonGlaeserindexdependsonboththegeographicdistributionofemploymentandtheintraindustryallocationofemploymenttoestablishments.TheexpectedvalueoftheEllisonGlaeserindexiszerowhenthespatialallocationofemploymentisrandom.ThisliteratureThisliteraturehashadrelativelylittletosayaboutthecausesofagglomeration.Thisliteraturebridgestheempiricalandtheoreticalliteratures.Wemeasuresofzipcode-levelconcentrationarenewtotheliterature.研究对象4-digit(SIC)manufacturingindustriesasobservationsSIC=Standardindustryclassification研究方法Ordinaryleastsquares(OLS)Fixed-effectspecifications框架ConsidersthedegreetowhichindustriesagglomerateLooksatthedeterminantsofanindustry’sagglomerationConcludesthepaper1ThespatialGinicoefficientTomeasuregeographicconcentrationwherexiislocationi’sshareoftotalemploymentandsiisthelocation’sshareofemploymentinaparticularindustryiiisxG2)(Ittakesonavalueofzerowhenanindustryisallocatedacrossspaceinexactlythesamewayasfortotalemployment.Ittakesonavalueclosetoone(dependingonthesizeoftheindustryitself)whentheindustryiscompletelyconcentratedinonelocation.G0doesnotnecessarilyimplythattheindustryinquestionisoverconcentratedThespatialGinicoefficient,therefore,doesnotdistinguishrandomconcentrationarisingfromindustrialstructurefromconcentrationarisingfromagglomerativeexternalitiesornaturaladvantage.注意问题AdjustedGγ=HerfindahlindexoftheJplantsintheindustry,withzjrepresentingtheemploymentshareofthejthplant)1)(1()1(22HxHxGiiii2jjzHForaperfectlycompetitiveindustrywithalargenumberofsmallplants,HapproacheszeroandγapproachesGmeasuresspatialconcentrationwithoutanycontaminationassociatedwithindustrialorganization)1(2iixG数据来源Thefourthquarterof200012millionestablishmentsintheUnitedStates现象Foreachlevelofgeography,theaveragelevelofagglomerationincreasesasonegoesfrom2-to3-digitindustriesandfrom3-to4-digitindustries.ThereasonIndustriesbecomeaggregatedintoeverbroaderandfewercategories,spatialpatternsofestablishmentlocationseventuallyapproachthatoftheentireeconomy.γ的含义Sinceγequalszerowhenanindustryisasconcentratedasarandomallocation,wheneverγ0thereisexcessconcentrationwhileγ0impliesanexcessdiffusionofemployment.10mostconcentratedindustriesatthestate,county,andzipcodelevelsforthe4-digitindustriesTheimplicationsFirst,someofthemostagglomeratedindustriesmaywellbeagglomeratedbecauseofnaturaladvantageratherthanbecauseofaspatialexternality.Second,manyoftheagglomeratedindustriesarethekindsofmanufacturingindustrieswhereonemightexpectagglomerationeconomiestobeimportant.Third,althoughtherearesomeindustriesthatarehighlyagglomeratedatmorethanonelevelofgeography,forthemostpartthelistsaredistinct.2sourcesofagglomerativespilloversEvaluatethedegreetowhichagglomerativeexternalitiesexplaininterindustrydifferencesinspatialconcentration.Knowledgespillovers,labormarketpooling,andinputsharingetc.NaturalAdvantageandTransportationCostsEnergyper$shipment,Naturalresourcesper$shipment,andWaterper$shipmentPositiveTransportingoutputInventoriesper$ofshipmentIndustriesthatproducehighlyperishableproductsfacehighproductshippingcostsperunitdistanceand,therefore,willseektolocateclosetotheirmarketsIndustriesthatproducenonperishableproductsfacelowerproductshippingcostsandshoulddisplaymoreagglomerationInputsharingManufacturedinputsper$ofshipmentAmongindustriesforwhichManufacturedinputsislarge,thegainsfromsharinginputsarelikelytoalsobelarge,creatingincentivestoconcentratespatially.Nonmanufacturedinputsper$ofshipmentLegalservices,accountingandfinancialservices,insurance,communication,repair,andjanitorialservicesThereasonFirst,scaleeconomiesarelikelytobestrongerformanufacturedinputs.Second,manufacturedinputsarelikelytoexhibitgreaterindustryspecificity.KnowledgespilloversInnovationsper$ofshipmentAnessentialinputforinnovationisnewknowledge.Inthatregard,innovativeactivityisrelatedtotheimportanceofknowledgespillovers.PositiveLabormarketpoolingNetproductivityManagementworkers/(Management+Productionworkers)ThepercentageofworkerswithDoctorates,Master’sDegrees,andBachelor’sDegreesPositiveEstimatesoftheDeterminantsofAgglomerationγj,m=βXm+εj,mwher
本文标题:The Determinants of Agglomeration
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