从G8到G20：全球经济领导体系的变革(英文论文)

FromtheG8totheG20:reformingtheglobaleconomicgovernancesystemDrClaudiaSchmucker1,GermanCouncilonForeignRelations(DGAP),BerlinandKatharinaGnath2,HertieSchoolofGovernanceGARNETWorkingPaperNo:73/09January20103ABSTRACTThepaperreviewsthethematicandinstitutionaldevelopmentsinthecontextoftheG8andG20summitsfromNovember2008untiltheendof2009.Itfirstanalysesthetopicsandresultsofthefoursummitsatleaders’levelinWashington,London,L’AquilaandPittsburgh.Subsequently,thepaperexaminesthreepossiblescenariosforthefuturerelationshipbetweentheG8andtheG20underthelabelscompetition,cooperationorco-existence.ItconcludesthattheG8willnotbeabolishedasaconsequenceofthenewly-upgradedG20,butwillinsteadbecomeamoreinformalcoordinationforumaheadoftheG20.TheG8willmostlikelyfocusonforeignandsecurityissues,whilethemainfinancialandeconomicquestionswillbediscussedwithinthenewG20.Keywords:G8∙G20∙InstitutionalReform∙GlobalFinancialArchitecture∙FinancialCrisis∙FinancialRegulatoryReform∙IMF∙FinancialStabilityForum∙G8-Outreach∙InternationalTrade∙GlobalImbalancesAddressforcorrespondenceDGAP,Rauchstraße17/18,10787Berlin,Germany1HeadofGlobalisationandWorldEconomyProgramme,GermanCouncilonForeignRelations(DGAP),Berlin,email:[e-mail]2AssociateFellow,DGAPBerlin,andPhDcandidate,BerlinSchoolforTransnationalStudies,HertieSchoolofGovernance,email:[e-mail]3ChapterpreparedforHerrmann/Terhechte,EuropeanYearbookofInternationalEconomicLaw,Vol.2,forthcoming.2A.INTRODUCTION:WHATADIFFERENCEAYEARCANMAKETherecentfinancialcrisishasdepictedacriticaljunctureineconomicandfinancialpolicy-making,triggeringprofoundchangesinthesystemofglobalgovernance–particularlyintheareaofGgroupsummitry.Overthecourseofthecrisis,formalandinformalinternationalcoordinationvenuesandforahaveproliferated.Yetthemostfar-reachingdevelopmentin2008and2009hasbeentheestablishmentandpermanentinstitutionalisationoftheleaders’G20forum:Thegroupthatstartedasaministers’roundonfinancialstabilityroughlytenyearsbeforehasmadearemarkablecareeroverthepasttwelvemonths.5ThechapterreviewsthethematicandinstitutionaldevelopmentsinthecontextoftheGsummitsfromNovember2008untiltheendof2009.Itfirsttracesthefoursummitsatleaders’levelbeforeportrayingpossiblescenariosforthefuturerelationshipoftheG8andtheG20.Thelastsectionprovidesanoutlookandconcludesthepaper.B.SUMMITHOPPING2008&2009Overthereviewperiod,theworldsawaproliferationofGsummitsatleaders’level6:InNovember2008,theG20gatheredinWashington.In2009,theG20metinLondoninAprilandinPittsburghinSeptember,whiletheG8convenedinL’Aquila,Italy,inJuly.I.FirstG20summitinWashingtonatleaders’level,November2008Astheworldwashitbyarapidly-deepeningfinancialcrisisinthewakeoftheLehmanBrothers’bankruptcyinSeptember2008,then-USPresidentGeorgeW.Bushcalleda“SummitonFinancialMarketsandtheWorldEconomy”inWashington,DC,on15and16November.Themeeting,atwhichtherepresentativesoftheworld’stwentyleadingcountriesandofrelevantinternationalorganisationswerepresent,wasaimedatunderstandingthe5Theoriginalfinanceministers’G20consistsofArgentina,Australia,Brazil,Canada,China,France,Germany,India,Indonesia,Italy,Japan,Mexico,Russia,Saudi-Arabia,SouthAfrica,SouthKorea,Turkey,theUK,andtheUS.The20thmemberistheEU,whichisrepresentedbytherotatingCouncilpresidencyandtheEuropeanCentralBank.Inaddition,theIMF,theWorldBankandthechairsoftheInternationalMonetaryandFinancialCommittee(IMF)andDevelopmentCommittee(WorldBank)alsoparticipate.SeveralothercountriestookpartintheG20leader’ssummitsof2008and2009:TheCzechRepublicandSweden(asEuropeanPresidencyrepresentativesinWashington2008andLondon2009;andPittsburg2009,respectively);Spain(allthreesummits);theNetherlands(allthreesummits),EthiopiaandThailand(asrepresentativesofNEPADandASEANinLondon2009).However,giventhegroup’sinformalityandrecency,membershipisnotfixedandcanbechangedbytheindividualpresidency.6Evenmoremeetingstookplaceatministers’orofficiallevel.Thepaperfocusesontheleaders’summitsthatstructuretheongoingworkoftheinternationalsummitcommunityandreceivethehighestpublicattention.3causesandcuresforthecrisis;atreaffirmingthecommitmenttoanopenglobaleconomyandthefightagainstprotectionism;andatrebuildingconfidenceintheglobalfinancialmarketsbydemonstratinginternationalpoliticalunitednessandcooperation.7Discussionsincludedinteraliabetterregulationofallfinancialserviceproviders,marketsandproducts(includinghedgefunds);anenhancedsupervisionofratingagencies;anincreaseinconsumerprotectioninfinancialproducts;thecurbingoftaxhavens;areformofinternationalfinancialinstitutionsinfavourofemergingcountries’representation;andadjustmentstomangers’remunerationpolicies.Aboveall,themeetingwasintendedtoidentifybroadprinciplesforreformingthefinancialandregulatorysystemratherthantospelloutconcretepolicyrecommendations.Theleadersdevelopedanactionplanwith47short-andmedium-termactionpointstobeelaboratedandimplementedsubsequently.Themeetingcanbeconsideredhistoricalnotfortheresultsachieved,butforthechangeininternationalgovernancestructuresthatitheralded:InsteadofconveninganadditionalG8meetinginautumn2008,itw