德银中国医疗保健行业7月医院药物销售追踪20170919DeutscheBankChinaHealt

19September2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareHealthCareHealthCareIndustryUpdateAsiaChinaHongKongIndustryChinaHealthcareDate19September2017DeutscheBankMarketsResearchMonthlyHospitalRxTracker,July2017WeakgrowthmomentuminJuly,flagshipdrugsshowingmixedresultsTotalhospitaldrugssalesgrew1.7%inJuly,vs.1.9%and7.3%in1H17and2016,respectively.Oncologydrugs,includingAiTan(apatinib)andDuomeisu,maintainedstronggrowthmomentuminJuly.Hengrui'sAiTanandKaiTeLi,SBP'sRunzhong,3SBio'sEPIAOandTPIAOandCSPC'sNBPrecordedgrowthof128%,-13%,-3%,-18%,16%and7%inJuly,vs.138%,20%,8%,-6%,8%and17%in1H17and637%,25%,26%,5%,33%and33%in2016.However,wecautioninvestorsthattheaforementioneddatamightbeselectivelyindicativeonlyforcorrelationwithreporteddata.Hengrui:apatinibcontinuedtodeliver,whileKaiTeLislowedThesalesgrowthofflagshipproductsAiTan,AiLi,AiSu,AiHeng,theatracuriumseriesandKaiTeLiwas128%,16%,0%,-1%,8%and-13%inJuly17vs.138%,14%,1%,0%,7%and20%in1H17and637%,13%,4%,0%,5%and25%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthforAiLiandAiSuwas16%and3%in3MJul17,vs.12%and-2%in1H17and15%and6%in2016.SBP:Runzhonggrowthmoderated;KaifenremainssolidGrowthofmajordrugsRunzhong,Ganmei,KaishiandKaifenreached-3%,-6%,-18%and21%inJulyvs.8%,0%,-10%and20%in1H17and26%,1%,-1%and31%in2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,theaveragegrowthofRunzhongandGanmeiwas4%and-2%in3MJul17,vs.8%and-1%in1H17and34%and5%in2016.3SBio:Yisaipurecoveringslowly;SEPOcontinuedrobustgrowth3SBiorecordedgrowthforEPIAOandTPIAOat-18%and16%inJuly17,vs.-6%and8%in1H17,and5%and33%in2016.Yisaipu'sgrowthwas2%YoYinJulyvs.-2%in1H17and2%in2016.SEPOdelivereddecentgrowthof76%YoYinJuly,comparedwith57%in1H17.CSPC:growthaccelerationfromoncologyfranchiseFlagshipproductsNBP,OulainingandXuanninggrew7%,-7%and-4%inJuly17vs.17%,-9%and-1%in1H17and33%,4%and6%in2016.OncologydrugsDuomeisuandJinyoulienjoyedgrowthaccelerationinJuly,posting70%and102%YoYgrowth,vs.48%and96%in1H17and120%and180%duringFY2016.Onathree-monthrollingbasis,averagegrowthofNBPandOulainingwas15%and-5%in3MJul17,vs.18%and-10%in1H17and36%and8%in2016.JackHu,PhDResearchAnalyst+852-22036208MeganXuResearchAssociate+852-22035928ToppicksHengruiMedicine(600276.SS),CNY58.55BuySinoBiopharmaceutical(1177.HK),HKD7.75BuyUniversalMedical(2666.HK),HKD6.49BuySource:DeutscheBankDeutscheBankAG/HongKongDeutscheBankdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Thus,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.DISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083/04/2017.Distributedon:18/09/201716:21:11GMT0bed7b6cf11c19September2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareTotalhospitaldrugsalesUp1.7%YoYinJulyTotalhospitaldrugsalesgrew1.7%YoYinJulyvs.1.9%and7.3%in1H17andFY16,respectively.Onaquarterlybasis,totaldrugsalesregisteredgrowthof2.1%,1.8%,6.2%and5.1%during2Q17,1Q17,4Q16and3Q16.Figure1:Totalhospitaldrugsales(January2014–July2017)-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%051015202530TotalhospitaldrugsalesYoYgrowthRMBbnSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage2DeutscheBankAG/HongKong19September2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFlagshipdrugdataWesummarizethegrowthdetailsoftheflagshipproductsof13drugcompaniesinthefollowingtables.Wecautioninvestorsthatmonthlysalesdataaresubjecttoseasonality,andfirstquarterdataarelikelyimpactedbytheCNYeffect.Hengrui(600276.SS)■OncologydrugsAiTan(apatinib),AiSu(docetaxel),AiLi(irinotecan),andAiHeng(oxaliplatin)grew128%,0%,16%,and-1%inJuly17,vs.138%,1%,14%,and0%in1H17and637%,4%,13%,and0%in2016.■AnestheticdrugsKaiTeLi(sevoflurane)andIoversol’srecordedgrowthof-13%/12%inJuly,vs.20%and19%in1H17vs.25%and18%in2016.Figure2:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiTanFigure3:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiSu0%2000%4000%6000%8000%10000%12000%14000%02468101214161820AiTanYoYgrowth-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%010203040506070AiSuYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure4:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiLiFigure5:Three-monthrollingaverageforAiHeng-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%05101520253035AiLiYoYgrowth-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%6%8%10%051015202530AiHengYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationDeutscheBankAG/HongKongPage319September2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure6:Three-monthrollingaverageforAtracuriumseriesFigure7:Three-monthrollingaverageforIoversol0%5%10%15%20%25%0102030405060AtracuriumseriesYoYgrowth0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%0102030405060IoversolYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationFigure8:Three-monthrollingaverageforKaiTeLi0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%05101520253035404550KaiTeLiYoYgrowthSource:DeutscheBank,ChinesePharmaceuticalAssociationPage4DeutscheBankAG/HongKong19September2017Pharmaceuticals/BiotechnologyChinaHealthcareFigure9:GrowthsummaryforHeng