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GlobalResearch14May2019HospitalCost/StrategicPrioritySurveyUBSEvidenceLabinside:LabOutsourcingPictureDampens,Value-BasedSpendtoKeepRampingHospitaloutsourcingopportunitylooksincrementallymorechallengingUBSEvidenceLabsurveyed75hospitalCEOsandCFOsrepresenting180hospitalsacrossthecountry(seepage2forhospitalbreakdownandmethodology).ResultsindicateanegativeshareriskforDGX/LHfromthehospitalmarket(4%lookingtoincreaseoutsourcingvs.31%lookingtoincreaselaboutreachoperations)vs.aslightnetpositivesharegainopportunityinourDecembersurvey(whichsuggestedapositive23%/20%skewbetweenoutsourcing/insourcing).Thoughwewouldcautionfromreadingtoomuchintosuchalargeshiftindatafromsurveytosurvey,wewouldnotethissurveydoesdovetailwiththelacklusternumberofM&Aannouncementsbythelabsytd(whichtheyhavedescribedasaconversion,notpipelineissue).Thatsaid,bothlabstalkedencouraginglyabouttheuptakeinPLSandreferencetestingin1Q.Theskewwasnarrower(albeitnegative)forsmallerlabsandtheMidwest/Westregions.Value-BasedReimbursementtoclimb,PINC/Payers/HCITbestpositionedNTHospitalsexpecttogrowtheirparticipationinValue-BasedReimbursement(VBR)andRisk-Basedpaymentmodels,withbothcategoriesestimatedtohavegrownbyatleast200bpsin2018asa%ofNetPatientRevenue(NPR)andtogrow99%/116%through2025reaching33%/22%ofNPR(similargrowthratevs.ourDecembersurvey,albeitfromasmallerbase).RespondentsindicatedVBRashavingalargerimpactonReimbursementrates,ITInvestment,andProviderNetworkstrategies,whilenothavingamajorimpactonWages,Medtechinvestment,M&A,andOutsourcingstrategies.Asaresult,wethinksurveyresultssupportourthesisthatthebestNTwaytoplaytheexpecteduptakeofVBRisthroughpayersandHealthcareITvendors,suchasBuy-RatedPremier(PINC).GPOServiceuptakeexpectedtoincrease,exceptforAdvisory/ConsultingSurveyresultsbroadlyindicatedstronghospitalinteresttoincreaseservicelevelsfromGPOsacrossmostservicelines(onavg.,~30%ofmembers).SimilartoourDecembersurvey,theonlycategorythatdidnotlookpromisingwasAdvisoryServices,asmorehospitalsindicatedshiftingAdvisoryworkfromGPOstootherpartiesthantheotherwayaround.ForPINC,AdvisoryServicesrepresentaround33%ofPINC'sPerformanceServicessegmentrevenues(7%oftotalcompanyrevenuesand7%ofEBITDA).EquitiesAmericasHealthcareKevinCaliendoAnalystkevin.caliendo@ubs.com+1-212-7133630DanBrennan,CFAAnalystdaniel.brennan@ubs.com+1-212-7132317AdamNobleAssociateAnalystadam.noble@ubs.com+1-212-713-9495BrettGasawayAssociateAnalystbrett.gasaway@ubs.com+1-212-7134820HospitalCost/StrategicPrioritySurvey14May20192UBSEvidenceLabSurveyed75CEOsandCFOswithOversightover665HospitalsUBSEvidenceLabsurveyed75hospitalexecutiveswithoversightacross180acutecarehospitals.Thisquarterlycross-sectornoteprovidesuniqueanddifferentiatedinsightacross90%ofindustry'scoststructure,expectationsforcapitalbudgets,outsourcingtrendsandkeyareasofstrategicfocus.Respondentsforthissurvey(Wave3/1Q19)werelocatedacrosstheUnitedStates(Midwest:35%,South:28%,West:20%,andNortheast16%)whilethetypesofcommunitiesservedbythehospitalswerealsoquitevaried:43%urban/suburban,40%rural/smalltownand17%indicatedmultipletypesofcommunitiesserved.Respondentstothesurveypredominantlyrepresentednon-profithospitals(83%).Figure1:RespondentsWereGeographicallyDispersedFigure2:NumberofBedsinHospital(s)OverseenSource:UBSEvidenceLabandUBSResearchSource:UBSEvidenceLabandUBSResearchFigure3:TheMajorityofRespondentsWereNon-ProfitFigure4:TypeofAreaServedbyHospital(s)Source:UBSEvidenceLabandUBSResearchSource:UBSEvidenceLabandUBSResearchMidwest:35%South:28%Northeast:16%West:20%11%9%40%40%0%20%40%60%80%100%Lessthan5050to100100to300300ormore17%83%Forprofit31%9%20%23%17%RuralSmallTownSuburbanUrbanMultipleHospitalCost/StrategicPrioritySurvey14May20193LabServicesLabOutreachBreakdownbyHospitalSizeandGeographyThemajorityofthehospitalsinallthreerunsofoursurveyeitherownoutreachlabassetsoutrightorthroughaJV/partnershiparrangement,withourApril2019surveycohortindicatingthehigherproportionofoutrightownership(63%).Thereisaslightlygreatergapinlaboutreachservicesbetweenlargeandsmallhospitals(definedasaboveorbelow300beds)intheAprilsurveyvs.December(15%vs.8%),thoughallservicesshowamajorityofhospitalsacrossbothsizecohortsengaginginlaboutreachservices.IsolatingtheAprilrunofthesurvey,smallhospitalsdemonstratedgreaterinterestinoutreachlabservicesthroughJV/partnershiparrangements,whilemorethan75%oflargerhospitalsalmostexclusivelyofferedsuchservicesthrougha100%ownershipmodel.BreakingdowntheAprilcohortbygeographicregion,Midwesternhospitalswerethemostlikelytohavelaboutreachservices(81%),followedbytheNortheast/Southregions(67%each)andsimilartoourpriorsurveyrunstheleastlaboutreachengagementintheWest(53%).
本文标题:瑞银美股医疗保健行业医院成本与策略调查实验室外包前景暗淡基于价值的支出继续攀升201951421页
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