瑞银全球饮料行业美国饮料业Seltzers之夏竞争白热化20197225页

GlobalResearch2July2019USBeveragesSummerofSeltzers–CompetitionBubblingUpWeestimatetheHardSeltzercategorywillgrowto$2.5Bby2021WeexpectHardSeltzerstogrowintoa$2.5Bcategoryfrom$0.55Bin3-yearsimplying+66%CAGR.ThisassumesHardSeltzerconsumptiongrowsfrom14Mcasesin2018to72mcasesin2021.Weseeconsumersmigratingintothecategoryfromeverycornerofalcohol.Wemodelthebiggest$contributioncomingfromVodka(33%)andDomesticPremiumBeer(26%)consumers.Ourassumptionsarebasedonamoderateconversionrateof0.5%-4.0%ofnormalizedalcoholcategoryvolumebasedondifferentexpectationsforon-premiseandoff-premiseexposurewhileconsideringmale-femaleexposureineachofthedonoralcoholcategories.OurBullcaseseesHardSeltzersgrowinginto$4.3Bcategorydelivering~98%3-yrCAGR,whileBearcaseexpectationssettleat$1.7B(~44%CAGR).InteractivemodelIncreasingdistributionpointsandcategorysubstitutionfuelgrowthrunwayWebelievethecategorywillcontinuetobenefitfromyounger,health-consciouspositioningwithconsumersaswellastheuntappedon-premisechannel.HardSeltzersalesincreasedto5.4%(1.7%YA)ofDomesticPremiumBeersalesintrackedchannelswhiledistributionpointsreached25%oftheDomesticPremiumsegment(indexed).ACVsapproached~87%inlatest4-wkending6/15.HardSeltzer'smorefavorablevelocitieswillincentivizeretailerstoexpandshelfinthekeysummersellingseason.WillSAM,STZandTAPbenefitfromtheincremental$2Bopportunity?Withroughly$2.0Bofincrementalcategorygrowthoverthe3-yearperiodaccordingtoourBasecase,weseeasignificantgrowthopportunityforbrandscompetinginthespace.Ifeachofthecompanymanagestogarner10%oftheincrementaldollar($0.2B)growth,SAM,STZandTAPcouldsee4.9%,1.0%,and0.6%inincrementalsalesCAGR,and5.9%,1.3%and0.9%inincrementalEPSCAGR,allelseequal.Whiletheopportunitymaybesignificant,competitionforSAM'sTrulyisontherise.Weexpectmultiple-deratingasTruly'suniqueLTgrowthpotentialcomesintoquestion.BigBeerwantsitsfairshare–anditisspendingtogetitWeseetheHardSeltzercategorydominatedbyplayersthatcanbeclassifiedinto3groups–Leadingbrands,ChallengerbrandsandExplorerbrands.Weexpectleadingbrands(WhiteClaw-PrivateandTruly-SAM)willcede~27ppofsharetoBigBeer(12pts)andbrandsfromregionalCraftbrewers(15pts).WeseerisktoleadingbrandsWhiteClawandTruly’sdominantmarketshareandgrowthtrendsfollowingtherepositioningofBon&Viv(ABInBev),SmirnoffSpiked,strongactivationofHenry’s(TAP)andlaunchofadjacencybrandsCapeLine(TAP)andCoronaRefresca(STZ).Craftbrewers/privatelabel/adjacenciespresentaddedriskstoleadingbrandsWeseeincreasingriskoffragmentationandcommoditizationinHardSeltzer.ThecategorymayfollowtheCraftbeerplaybookwherefragmentationledtosharegainsforregional/localbrands.Weidentified~27brandslaunchedthepast6-months(seefigure24).WehighlighttheriskofcommoditizationgivenAldiandLidl'sentryintothecategoryatasignifi[e-mail][phone]NikOliver,[e-mail][phone]USBeverages2July20192ContentsHardSeltzertogrowfrom$0.55Bto$2.5B...................................3ModerateConversionRatefromOtherAlcoholCategories......................3HardSeltzeraddsincrementalvaluetotheBeer/FMBcategory.................4Ourassumptionsarebasedonchannelexposures,demographicsandconversionfactorsbyalcoholcategory.....................................................4Bull-BearCaseExpectationsforHardSeltzerCategory.............................5HardSeltzergrowthinTrackedChannels.................................................7GrowthDrivers.........................................................................................7Emergingcategorywithrunwayforexpansion.........................................8Strongvelocitiessuggestsawin-winforretailers,wholesalersandbrewers................................................................................................................8Roomforincreasingdistribution...............................................................9HardSeltzer'simpactonSAM,TAPandSTZ................................10SensitivityAnalysis–MeasuringimpactofHardSeltzergrowthonSalesandEPSgrowth......................................................................................10ChangingCompetitiveLandscape................................................12HardSeltzerleaderssettocedeshare[WhiteClawandTruly]................12ChallengerbrandsfromBigBeer[Bon&Viv,Henry’s,Smirnoff,Svedka]..13CraftBrewerswant(andneed)apieceofthegrowth….........................13CraftBeercasestudyin3charts............................................................16Privatelabelpresentsacrediblethreat....................................................17WewouldliketothankNikhilJain,ourresearchsupportservicepr