2015计量经济学课程论文

xxx学院课程论文论文题目:分析西安市产业结构对经济增长的影响系(室）：专业班级：小组成员：指导教师：完成日期：2015年12月13日分析西安市产业结构对经济增长的影响摘要西安市近年来随着经济迅猛发展，经济实力不断增强。经济发展以经济增长为前提，而经济增长与产业结构变动有着密不可分的关系。在一定条件下，产业结构变动是经济增长的基础，是促进经济增长的主要因素。强调产业结构的转变也是当前经济增长的发展要求。本文采用1985年至2014年的统计数据，通过建立多元线性回归模型，运用Eviews软件，建立计量经济学模型，研究三大产业的增长对西安市经济增长的贡献，从而得出调整产业结构对转变经济发展方式，促进西安市经济可持续发展的重要意义。关键词：经济增长、产业结构、回归分析、模型检验目录绪论································································································1（一）问题的提出及研究意义····························································11．问题的提出··········································································12．研究意义·············································································1（二）研究思路··············································································1一、西安市经济现状·············································································2二、数据收集及模型设定·······································································2（一）数据收集与处理·····································································2（二）模型的设定···········································································4三、模型参数估计················································································4四、模型检验·······················································································5（一）经济意义检验········································································5（二）统计检验··············································································61．拟合优度检验·······································································62．F检验·················································································63．t检验··················································································6（三）计量经济学检验·····································································61．解释变量间的多重共线性检验··················································62．自相关性检验·······································································73．异方差性经验·······································································7五、根据数据进行对GDP的影响分析·······················································8六、对策建议·······················································································9（一）转变经济发展方式，推动产业优化升级·······································9（二）加大对农业的投入，调整农业内部产业结构·································9（三）坚持走新兴工业化道路····························································9（四）积极推进服务业发展及转型····················································10（五）注重发挥市场机制的作用·······················································10参考文献···························································································111绪论（一）问题的提出及研究意义1．问题的提出经济增长是指在一个较长时间跨度上，一个国家人均产出（或人均收入）的水平持续增加。经济增长率高低体现了一个国家或地区在一定时期内经济总量增长速度的快慢，也是衡量一个国家或地区总体经济实力增长速度的标志。而决定经济增长的直接因素有投资量、劳动量和生产率水平。用现价计算的GDP，可以反映一个国家或地区的经济发展规模，用不变价计算的国内生产总值可以计算经济增长的速度。它构成了经济发展的物质基础，而产业结构的调整与优化升级对于经济增长甚至经济发展至关重要。传统的经济增长理论是在竞争均衡的假设条件下，认为经济的增长是各种生产要素投入的结果，总产出函数是资本积累、劳动力增加以及技术变化的长期作用结果。而结构主义非均衡增长理论则认为传统经济增长理论关于竞争均衡的假设在实际中并不成立，结构主义理论认为，实际中这种竞争均衡的假设是不可能存在的，由于各个部门的生产技术、产品需求、要素供给等都是各不相同的，生产要素在不同的部门其报酬率必然也就不相同，这样一来，生产要素在不同部门之间的流动会使得总产出增加，因而产业结构变动会促进经济增长；反过来，经济增长在不同部门间也是不完全均衡的，经济的增长也会影响到产业结构的变化。2．研究意义20世纪以来，产业结构调整与经济增长相互之间的关系研究一直是国内外学者关注的重要课题。一个地区产业结构的状态和优化升级能力，是经济发展的重要动力。推进产业结构优化升级，形成以高新技术产业为先导、基础产业和制造业为支撑、服务业全面发展的产业格局。推动产业结构优化升级，这关系国民经济全局紧迫而重大的战略任务。产业结构优化升级对于促进西安市经济全面协调可持续发展具有重要作用。（二）研究思路本文主要研究西安市产业结构对经济增长的影响，内容涉及统计学，计量经济学等学科领域。运用计量经济学知识，建立合适的模型，利用Eviews6软件进行求解、检验，分析第一、二、三产业对西安市经济增长的影响，得出相应的结论，并提出相应的政策和建议，实现经济的快速发展。首先提出了本文要研究的问题及其现实研究意义，凸显本文的研究价值。简述现西安市产业结构及经济状况。从西安市统计局获取数据并处理，建立多元回归模型，进行参数估计，得出回归方程。分别进行经济意义检验、统计检验、计量经济学检验并对结果进行分析，根据上述研究，对提高西安市经济增长提出建议和对策。2一、西安市经济现状西安处于关中平原的中部，是陕西省的政治、经济和文化中心。近年来，随着国家西部大开发战略的深入推进，西安经济社会进入了快速发展的新阶段，经济总量扩张迅速，综合实力得到了明显增强，特别是2010年以来，西安市生产总值出现了持续快速增长的良好势头。从总体上看，西安市的产业结构正在向着更加合理的方向发展。西安第三产业总量偏小、但增速快、发展潜力较大。随着城市化进程的加快，西安的科技、旅游、文化优势产业等正带动城市第三产业的蓬勃发展，第三产业发展潜力较大。二、数据收集及模型设定（一）数据收集与处理由西安市统计局官网得到以下数据：表2-11984-2014年西安市生产总值表(本表按当年价格计算)单位：亿元年份Year生产总值GrossDomesticProduct第一产业PrimaryIndustry第二产业SecondaryIndustry第三产业TertiaryIndustry198444.147.4524.1712.52198557.588.7630.8317.99198665.789.5933.8622.33198780.1610.7337.6931.74198899.2211.4746.5841.171989109.3812.7848.9147.691990116.5113.9450.1552.421991136.1417.1757.0661.911992164.8518.7869.2276.851993229.5622.58110.8896.101994289.8231.68128.27129.871995330.3541.40135.33153.621996406.9546.94161.63198.381997488.8251.33197.97239.521998525.8551.91216.32257.621999577.2945.53243.35288.412000646.1344.65277.13324.352001734.8645.87312.90376.092002826.6847.77353.58425.332003946.6650.72407.38488.5620041102.3960.21476.92565.2620051313.9366.01540.50707.4220061538.9470.44645.65822.85320071856.6382.51781.94992.1820082318.14103.45981.581233.1120092724.08110.381144.751468.9520103241.69140.061406.721694.9120113862.58173.141674.312015.1320124366.10195.591881.752288.7620134924.97200.451998.822725.7020145492.64214.552194.783083.31注：2005年以后人均GDP按平均常住人口计算。2013年数据为第三次经济普查结果，以前年度未经修订。2014年数据是2014年年报最终核实数据。2013、2014年三次产业分类依据国家统计局2012年制定的新《三次产业划分规定》。分析各产业对GDP的影响，可以借助增长率这个指标，通过对上述表格中数据的