北大医院项目类比分析

附錄1.9北大医院项目加權平均資本成本(WACC)計算根据資本資產訂价模型(根据香港數据)稅后加權平均資本成本(或回報率)WACC(orROR)=[Kd*D/(D+E)]+[Ke*E/(D+E)]稅后加權平均資本成本(WACC;NominalRate)8.94%其中:WACC=資本成本/稅后回報率D=債務所占比率%60.00%E=股本所占%40.00%Kd=稅后債務成本,[利率加1%]6.00%利率:8.00%稅率:33.00%Ke(t)=股權成本13.36%股權回報率計算Ke=Rf+ß*(Rp)12.36%Add:中國經營業務的額外風險1.00%Ke(t)=股權總成本13.36%其中:Rf=零風險回報率(10年外匯基金票据)4.89%ß=類似組合的系統風險系數(Beta)0.69Rp=長期平均市場風險溢价10.82%長期平均風險溢价計算(Rp)長期香港市場回報率15.71%加：小公司風險溢价0.00%減：零風險回報率(10年外匯基金票据)4.89%長期平均市場風險溢价(Rp)10.82%美国医疗服务上市公司财务指标类比分析公司名稱股票代碼年結月份股票現價02/06/200452週高52週低市值2003息税前利潤EBITDA價格與銷售比价格与净资产比市盈率(歷史)2004年预测市盈率MARKETCapEBITP/SP/BP/EEstP/ECommunityHealthSystems,Inc.CYH1226.62030.87018.2502,629.290292.760388.4800.8801.89019.72017.540HCAInc.HCA1239.63046.60029.57019,245.4802,609.0003,150.0000.8703.09015.98015.090HealthManagementAssociates,Inc.HMA922.33026.45017.3905,427.520482.920596.8001.8702.97017.86016.410HMI60.0600.1100.05117.200(2.300)1.0000.4100.85023.75030.000HorizonHealthCorporationHORC822.05026.49914.440120.43015.93016.7300.7201.76012.32011.790LifePointHospitals,Inc.LPNT1238.50038.88019.3601,471.420127.100166.5001.5603.47020.81018.980MedCathCorporationMDTH922.1004.900387.59025.38060.5900.6301.450—92.490PWAY121.1201.2300.750807.39054.80065.9002.3101.87021.13018.360ProvinceHealthcareCompanyPRV1216.33018.7509.310805.78093.130123.9501.0201.74018.35016.800RFMicroDevices,Inc.RFMD120.3950.4700.345154.230——1.5401.63018.550—Symbion,Inc.SMBI1216.02021.19015.000331.39031.05040.1100.9601.49013.35024.910TenetHealthcareCorporationTHC1212.15018.7309.1505,655.460601.000171.0000.4501.33022.920189.840TriadHospitals,Inc.TRI1236.27038.00021.5002,758.240333.600473.0000.6701.26016.49015.340UnitedSurgicalPartnersInternational,Inc.USPI1239.50039.87020.5701,110.47078.250133.1702.4402.75034.65029.590UniversalHealthServices,Inc.UHS1244.04056.95038.7302,550.370369.460456.9700.6802.26014.73015.590UNIVERSALHEALTHSVCINCUHID12—45.00038.0002,550.370369.460456.9700.5801.95012.71013.450AmericanDentalPartners,Inc.ADPI1217.33018.5908.150129.57013.02017.9600.7701.68018.84012.380INITIOINCINTO1032.50047.50024.5009.8200.9202.3500.1400.630——NSR12132.500350.000122.000115.12020.39018.0000.2701.3009.74015.030PediatrixMedicalGroup,Inc.PDX1267.21071.62031.3001,646.300136.890143.7102.8702.66018.62016.450USOncology,Inc.USON1214.76015.3306.6001,274.590——0.6202.08017.57015.960医疗服务上市公司平均数（扣除高低极值各10%）26.2830.1516.981,427.65179.18196.010.971.8917.8622.61考虑國家性差异后相對平均值(+19%)31.2735.8820.211,698.90213.22233.251.162.2421.2626.91P/E法估算北大医院价值北大医院项目评估期以2003年为基准年年平均折现淨利潤66,956,966.133北大医院项目评估期以2004年为基准年年平均折现淨利潤72,945,599.528北大医院项目价值(以2003年为基准年年平均折现淨利潤x2003年市盈率)1,423,438,143.025北大医院项目价值(以2004年为基准年年平均折现淨利潤x2004年市盈率)1,962,667,006.338公平市场价值1,693,052,574.681再扣除非上市公司因素后的市場价值(50%折讓)846,526,287.341P/S法估算北大医院项目价值北大医院项目评估期以2003年为基准年年平均折现销售额179,432,218.829北大医院项目价值(以2003年为基准年年平均折现销售额x2003年P/S)207,746,622.960公平市场价值207,746,622.960再扣除非上市公司因素后的市場价值(50%折讓)103,873,311.480P/B法估算北大医院项目价值北大医院项目评估期以2003年为基准年年平均折现淨资产141,999,884.514北大医院项目价值(以2003年为基准年年平均折现淨资产x2003年P/B)318,775,540.744公平市场价值318,775,540.744再扣除非上市公司因素后的市場价值(50%折讓)159,387,770.372公司名稱股票代碼年結月份股票現價02/06/200452週高52週低市值2003息税前利潤EBITDA價格與銷售比价格与净资产比市盈率(歷史)2004年预测市盈率2003年銷售2003每股盈利2004每股盈利每股盈利增加%系統性非險系數(Beta)NetsalesEPSEstEPSEstEPG2,834.6201.3501.5180.9800.41021,808.0002,480.0002.6261.2300.5402,560.5801.2501.3611.1000.57032.8000.0030.002—0.750166.3401.7901.8700.7900.870907.1001.5802.028—0.500542.990(0.040)0.2336.1700.960348.6000.0530.0610.8100.790761.9800.8900.9721.1300.640—99.1000.021—0.520176.2701.2000.6431.160—13,212.0000.5300.06417.4900.8303,865.9002.2002.3650.9700.620427.1201.1401.3351.2700.7403,643.5702.9902.8251.0300.6003,643.5702.9902.825——163.7100.9201.4000.8300.400————0.690—0.1360.0883.0100.660551.2003.6104.0851.1001.0501,965.7200.8400.9251.6001.0702,235.701.471.271.600.692003年銷售2003每股盈利2004每股盈利每股盈利增加%系統性非險系數(Beta)股票代碼Cash-oper/salesEFFint.rateCapYrchangeRetentionrateSalesYrchangeAssetYrchangeOperatingmarginPretaxmarginReturnonassetsReturnonComEqtyReturnoncap.AssetturnoverFin.LeverageEfftaxrateCurrentratioQuickratioDebttoassetsA/RturnoverEBIT/totalinterCYH8.60%5.34%17.39%100.00%28.82%19.25%10.33%7.82%4.27%10.25%6.74%0.922.439.79%1.91.5943.29%5.914.11HCA9.93%6.27%17.65%96.93%10.54%12.39%11.96%10.57%6.69%22.37%12.46%1.13.3435.73%1.771.2441.27%7.415.31HMA13.04%1.87%28.03%93.05%13.17%26.02%18.86%18.08%10.61%19.00%12.79%0.961.7937.86%3.052.5632.71%5.2232.38HMI-6.97%7.83%8.86%100.00%-3.06%10.52%-6.93%16.32%0.89%3.80%11.83%0.474.272.74%1.251.0832.24%2.42-1.22HORC8.13%3.34%9.98%100.00%15.74%10.52%9.57%9.40%9.83%15.39%13.23%1.711.5738.70%1.20.9811.95%11.839.69LPNT11.53%4.92%9.56%100.00%21.99%8.93%14.01%12.60%8.94%18.22%12.09%1.182.0439.46%2.381.8430.37%9.739.93MDTH7.84%7.77%-1.05%—13.68%1.12%4.67%-10.03%-8.09%-20.42%-4.45%0.732.52-0.56%1.351.1649.18%6.910.98PWAY17.75%2.19%-3.03%—3.29%-2.09%15.71%14.11%4.08%7.83%5.53%0.421.9228.50%0.50.3632.47%11.659.02PRV13.75%5.77%2.32%100.00%13.18%3.77%12.22%8.70%3.19%7.35%5.51%0.772.335.21%3.252.5843.81%6.873.55RFMD12.03%4.78%3.28%46.47%15.32%4.37%7.84%6.93%3.8