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TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司项目管理者联盟,MYPM.NETTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee2ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniquesTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee3TheEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement1952,ModernPortfolioTheory(MPT),HarryMarkowitz,JournalofFinance,PortfolioSelection1990,HarryMarkowitzsharedNobelPrize,dominantapproachusedtomanageriskandreturnwithinfinancialmarkets1981,F.WarrenMcFarian,PortfolioApproachtoInformationSystems,HBR,toemployarisk-basedapproachtotheselectionandmanagementofITprojects.1990s,abroaderuseofideasofportfoliomanagement1998,JohnThorp,TheInformationParadox.Portfoliomanagementwasusedtomanageriskandmaximizereturnalonganumberofdimensions.Present,portfoliomanagementascentralelementsofgoodinvestmentmanagementTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee4PortfolioManagement,theoverallpictureFocus(StrategicPlanning)Source:PMSolutions,PortfolioManagement,DianneBridgesSelect(PortfolioManagement)Manage(ProjectManagement)TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee5ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMarketOverviewofPPMPPM,ProcessandTechniquesTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee6TheOldPhilosophyaboutPortfolioDon’tputallyoureggsinonebasket.Riskaversionseemstobeaninstinctivetraitinhumanbeings.TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee7ReturnandRiskinFinancialMarketexpectedreturnstandarddeviation(%)capitalappreciationgrowthofincome06121824303620181614121086420incomeinflationT-billsintermediate-termgovernmentbondslong-termgovernmentbondslong-termcorporatebondslargecompanystockssmallcompanystocksstabilityofprincipalTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee8ixRExREiniiiportfoliosecurityininvestedproportionthewhere1TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesTheexpectedreturnofaportfolioisaweightedaverageofthecomponentexpectedreturns.TheRoleofCombiningSecurities10baabbabbaapxxxx222222baiixabiipandbetweentcoefficienncorrelatiostockofdeviationstandardstockininvestedportfolioofproportionvarianceportfoliowhere2two-securityportfoliorisk=riskA+riskB+interactiveriskniix11,Thetotalriskofaportfoliocomesfromthevarianceofthecomponentsandfromtherelationshipsamongthecomponents.TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee10TheRoleofCombiningSecuritiesexpectedreturnriskbetterperformanceAportfoliodominatesallothersifnootherequallyriskyportfoliohasahigherexpectedreturn,orifnoportfoliowiththesameexpectedreturnhaslessrisk.Thepointofdiversificationistoachieveagivenlevelofexpectedreturnwhilebearingtheleastpossiblerisk.TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee11TheEfficientFrontier:OptimumDiversificationofRiskyAssetsexpectedreturnrisk(standarddeviationofreturns)impossibleportfoliosdominatedportfoliosefficientfrontierTheoptimalcombinationsresultinlowestlevelofriskforagivenreturnTheoptimaltrade-offisdescribedastheefficientfrontierTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee12TheEfficientFrontiervsNaiveDiversificationAsportfoliosizeincreases,totalportfoliorisk,onaverage,declines.Afteracertainpoint,however,themarginalreductioninriskfromtheadditionofanothersecurityismodest.totalriskNon-diversifiablerisknumberofsecuritiesNaivediversificationistherandomselectionofportfoliocomponentswithoutconductinganyserioussecurityanalysis.TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee13RiskReductionwithDiversificationNumberofSecuritiesSt.DeviationMarketRiskUniqueRiskTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee14Marketorsystematicrisk:riskrelatedtothemacroeconomicfactorormarketindexUnsystematicorfirmspecificrisk:risknotrelatedtothemacrofactorormarketindexTotalrisk=Systematic+UnsystematicComponentsofRiskTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee15Two-SecurityPortfolioswithDifferentCorrelations=113%%8E(r)St.Dev12%20%=.3=-1=-1TalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee16Relationshipdependsoncorrelationcoefficient-1.0+1.0Thesmallerthecorrelation,thegreatertheriskreductionpotentialIf=+1.0,noriskreductionispossiblePortfolioRisk/Return,CorrelationEffectsTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee17StructuringaPortfolio:AssetAllocationattitudetowardriskneedforreturnrealizedreturnandriskwiththepassageoftimestocksbondsrealestatecashforeignequitiesPortfolioASSETCLASSESindividualchoiceassetclassmixinvestmentresultsTalentAllianzManagement&TechnologyCo.Ltd.翰联世纪企业管理技术(北京)有限公司,GeorgeLee18ContentEmergenceofProjectPortfolioManagement(PPM)PortfolioManagementinFinancialMa