韩国改变军事战略

1November25,2010WithLimitedOptions,SouthKoreaShiftsMilitaryRulesByMARTINFACKLERandMARKMcDONALDSEOUL,SouthKorea—RespondingtogrowingpubliccriticismafteradeadlyNorthKoreanattack,PresidentLeeMyung-bakacceptedtheresignationofhisdefenseministeronThursdayandannouncedchangesinthemilitary’srulesofengagementtomakeiteasierforSouthKoreatostrikebackwithgreaterforce,especiallyifciviliansarethreatened.ThegovernmentalsoannouncedplanstoincreasethenumberoftroopsandheavyweaponsonYeonpyeongIsland,wheretwomarinesandtwociviliansdiedTuesdayinanartilleryfusilladefromtheNorth.OnFriday,PresidentLeeappointedasecurityadviser,LeeHee-won,asthenewdefenseminister.ButMr.Lee,whocametoofficetwoyearsagovowingtogettoughwiththeNorth,haslittlemaneuveringroominformulatingaresponse.Whiletheattackappearstohavepushedanti-NorthKoreansentimentheretoitshighestlevelinyears,thereislittlepublicsupportfortakingmilitaryactionagainsttheNorththatmightleadtoanescalationofhostilities.“NorthKoreahasnothingtolose,whilewehaveeverythingtolose,”saidKangWon-taek,aprofessorofpoliticsatSeoulNationalUniversity.“LeeMyung-bakhasnochoicebuttosoftenhistonetokeepthiscountrypeaceful.Itisnotanappealingchoice,butitistheonlyrealisticchoice.”TheSouth’spowerfulneighborisalsocounselingrestraint.TheChineseprimeminister,WenJiabao,saidThursdaythatBeijingopposedanyprovocativemilitarybehaviorbyeithersideontheKoreanPeninsula,Xinhua,thestatenewsagency,reported.OnThursday,whileNorthKoreawarnedthroughitsofficialnewsagencyoffurthermilitaryretaliationifprovokedbySouthKorea,Mr.Leesaidonly,“WeshouldnotdropourguardinpreparationforthepossibilityofanotherprovocationbyNorthKorea,”accordingtohischiefspokesman,HongSang-pyo.“Aprovocationlikethiscanrecuranytime.”Thechangesintherulesofengagementweresimilarlyrestrained.SouthKoreandefensesonfivecoastalislandsintheYellowSeahadbeensetupprimarilytoguardagainstpossibleamphibiouslandingsbyNorthKoreantroops.CriticssaidThursdaythatthemilitaryhadnotanticipatedthepossibilityofanattackbyNorthKoreanartillerybatteries,whicharereportedlyincavesalongtheNorth’scoastline.2“Now,anartillerybattlehasbecomethenewthreat,sowe’rereassessingtheneedtostrengthendefenses,”Mr.Leetoldlawmakers.Thenewmeasuresheoutlinedincludeddoublingthenumberofhowitzersandupgradingotherweaponry.Thenewrulesofengagementwillbebasedonwhethermilitaryorciviliansitesarethetargets,saidMr.Hong,thepresidentialspokesman,addingthatthemovewasmadeto“changetheparadigmofrespondingtoNorthKorea’sprovocations.”Previously,SouthKoreanforceswereallowedtorespondonlyinkind—iftheNorthfiredartillery,theSouthcouldansweronlywithartillery—tocontainanydispute.Now,officialssaid,themilitarywouldbeallowedtousegreaterforce.Mr.Lee’sresponsetothisweek’sartilleryattackisnotthefirsttimehehasbeencriticizedforsittingonhishandsinthefaceofadeadlyprovocationbytheNorth.Twoyearsago,whenaSouthKoreantouristwasshotbyasentryataNorthKoreanmountainresort,hisgovernment’sresponseamountedtoaslaponthewrist:suspendingtourstotheresortandbanningSouthKoreancivicgroupsfromvisitingtheNorth.ButtheclearestcasewasMr.Lee’sresponseinMarchtothesinkingofaSouthKoreanwarship,theCheonan.Mr.Leeatfirstseemedtostallbywaitingfortheresultsofaninternationalinvestigation,whichtooktwomonthstoconcludethattheshiphadbeensunkbyaNorthKoreantorpedo.Whenheresponded,itwaswithrelativelymildmeasureslikereducingtheSouth’salreadyminusculetradewiththeNorth,resumingtheSouth’scold-war-erapropagandaspeakersalongthedemilitarizedzoneanddemandinganapology.ButthespeakershaveyettobeturnedonafterNorthKoreathreatenedtoshootatthem,andMr.Leedroppedtheapologydemandasaconditionfortalks.Mr.LeewaswidelyblamedinSouthKoreaforhavingprovokedtheCheonanepisodebyendingunconditionalaidtotheNorthatthestartofhispresidency.“Before,thepublicsawhimastoohard,andnowtheyseehimastoosoft,”saidYooHo-yeol,aprofessorofNorthKoreanstudiesatKoreaUniversityinSeoul.Despitepublicpressuretodomore,Mr.LeedoesnothavemanyoptionsforlesslethalformsofpressureontheNorth,diplomaticoreconomic.NorthKoreahasweatheredyearsofeconomicsanctionsanddiplomaticisolation.Infact,thetougheconomicconditionsappearonlytogivetheNorthmotivationtocontinueitsbrinkmanship,toextractaidasitfacesawinteroffoodandfuelshortages.SomeanalystssaytheNorthisalsousingtheprovocationstoburnishthemilitarycredentialsofKimJong-un,theyoungestsonoftheNorth’sleader,KimJong-il,andhisheirapparent.AnalystssaymakingsanctionseffectivewouldrequiregreatersupportfromChina,NorthKorea’straditionalprotector,whichhassofarbeenreluctanttotightenthescrewsonthe3North.Inrecentdays,Mr.LeeandPresidentObamahaveagreedtomakenewappealstoChineseleaderstoputmorepressureontheNorth,butanalystssaytheyarenotoptimisticthattheChinesewillcomply.Still,SouthKoreanofficialssaidtheywouldurgeChinatoactmoreresponsiblybypressingtheNorthtorefrainfromfurtherattacks.TheyalsosaidtheywouldaskBeijingtomorecloselymonitortradewithNorthKoreabyChinesemerchants,whichtheysaidhasbeenawayfortheNorthtobypassinternationaleconomicsanctions.Mr.LeeandhisadvisersappeartohaveconcludedthatalessconfrontationalstanceistheonlywaytopersuadeNorthKo