投行内部DCF模型(折现现金流)

Ticker:NASDAQ:DEERCurrency:USDollar(USD)Conversion:CurrentDate:9-Oct-10Filing:LatestFullyReportedDEERCONSUMERPRODUCTS,INC.WACCAnalysis(USDinmillions,exceptpersharedata)CapitalIQInputs:CompanyName:AssumptionsBottom-UpBetaCalculationTotalDebtLeveredTotalMkt.Val.Debt/UnleveredTotalPreferredPeerGroupTaxRate(forBottom-UpBeta)14.2%TickerNameBetaDebtEquityEquityBeta(2)MarketCapRisk-FreeRateofReturn(Rf)(1)2.382%SZSE:000527GDMideaHoldingCo.,Ltd.1.0498,889.048,301.718.4%0.9061EBTMarketRiskPremium(Rm-Rf)6.8%SZSE:000651GreeElectricAppliances,Inc.ofZhuhai0.73311,925.341,282.128.9%0.5882TaxesSizePremium0.0%SZSE:002242JoyoungCo.,Ltd.0.4700.013,643.80.0%0.4703LatestFYENASDAQ:DEERD/(D+P+E)2.0%SZSE:002032ZhejiangSuporCo.,Ltd.0.3510.013,230.60.0%0.3514LatestFQENASDAQ:DEERD/E2.0%SEHK:1169HaierElectronicsGroupCo.,Ltd.2.18174.013,348.90.6%2.1715TodayNASDAQ:DEERCostofDebt(Rd)1.9%DaysRemaininginFYNASDAQ:DEERCostofPreferred(Rp)0.0%Average0.9570.897NASDAQ:DEERTaxRate18.4%TreasuryInterest:AverageUnleveredBetaforComps0.8971=RiskfreerateNASDAQ:DEERD/E2.0%2=ChooseUSNASDAQ:DEERTaxRate18.4%3=ThenNASDAQ:DEERLeveredBeta(3)0.9124=5=6=WACCWACCSensitivityAnalysis7=8=MarketRiskPremium(Rm-Rf)6.8%NASDAQ:DEERPre-TaxCostofDebt9=Multipliedby:NASDAQ:DEERBottom-UpBeta0.912D/(D+P+E)##3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%6.00%6.50%AdjustedMarketRiskPremium6.2%0.00%##8.6%##8.6%##8.6%##8.6%##8.6%##8.6%##8.6%Add:Risk-FreeRateofReturn(Rf)(1)2.4%5.00%##8.3%##8.3%##8.3%##8.4%##8.4%##8.4%##8.4%Pre-TaxCostofDebtStepAdd:SizePremium0.0%10.00%##8.0%##8.1%##8.1%##8.1%##8.2%##8.2%##8.3%D/(D+P+E)StepCostofEquity8.6%15.00%##7.7%##7.8%##7.8%##7.9%##8.0%##8.0%##8.1%CostofEquityStepMultipliedby:NASDAQ:DEERE/(D+P+E)98.0%20.00%##7.4%##7.5%##7.6%##7.7%##7.8%##7.8%##7.9%E/(D+P+E)StepCostofEquityPortion8.4%25.00%##7.2%##7.3%##7.4%##7.5%##7.6%##7.7%##7.8%30.00%##6.9%##7.0%##7.1%##7.2%##7.4%##7.5%##7.6%NASDAQ:DEERCostofDebt(Rd)1.9%NASDAQ:DEERTaxRate18.4%After-TaxCostofDebt1.6%WACCSensitivityAnalysisDiscountFactor:Multipliedby:NASDAQ:DEERD/(D+P+E)2.0%1=CostofDebtPortion0.0%NASDAQ:DEERCostofEquity2=E/(D+P+E)##8.50%9.25%10.00%10.75%11.50%12.25%13.00%NASDAQ:DEERCostofPreferred(Rp)0.0%100.00%##8.5%##9.3%##10.0%##10.8%##11.5%##12.3%##13.0%BetaSelectionMultipliedby:NASDAQ:DEERP/(D+P+E)0.0%95.00%##8.2%##8.9%##9.6%##10.3%##11.0%##11.7%##12.4%1=Bottom-UpBetaCostofPreferredPortion0.0%90.00%##7.8%##8.5%##9.2%##9.8%##10.5%##11.2%##11.9%2=RegressionBeta85.00%##7.5%##8.1%##8.7%##9.4%##10.0%##10.6%##11.3%WACC8.4%80.00%##7.1%##7.7%##8.3%##8.9%##9.5%##10.1%##10.7%ΔWorkingCap.Reference75.00%##6.8%##7.3%##7.9%##8.5%##9.0%##9.6%##10.1%1=AsReportedontheCashFlow70.00%##6.4%##6.9%##7.5%##8.0%##8.5%##9.0%##9.6%2=CalculatedviaWCSchedule(1)InterestonU.S.Treasury-10years(2)UnleveredBeta=LeveredBeta/(1+((D/E)*(1-T)))(3)LeveredBeta=UnleveredBeta*(1+((D/E)*(1-T)))U.S.Treasury-10yearsPage1of91;15:32;2021/6/11PROJECTEDCASHFLOWS(USDinmillions,exceptpersharedata)9969979989991000FiscalYearEndingDecemberCAGR2006200720082009|2010E2011E2012E2013E2014E2010-20142015ETotalRevenue29.033.543.881.3|160.1209.3240.6276.7318.318.7%377.9AnnualGrowthNA15.3%30.8%85.8%|96.8%30.7%15.0%15.0%15.0%CostofRevenue24.326.234.161.2|113.7148.7171.0196.6226.1109.4Margin16.3%21.6%22.1%24.8%|29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%29.0%EBITDA2.64.75.515.7|32.343.049.556.965.419.3%77.7AnnualGrowthNA81.5%15.2%187.3%|105.7%33.4%15.0%15.0%15.0%Margin9.0%14.1%12.5%19.3%|20.1%20.6%20.6%20.6%20.6%20.6%Less:DepreciatoinandAmortization0.60.81.21.4|2.23.74.34.95.726.9%6.7%ofCapitalExpenditure28.3%37.1%29.1%33.7%|32.6%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%33.7%EBIT2.03.94.214.2|30.139.345.252.059.818.7%71.0AnnualGrowthNA99.9%8.1%235.7%|111.3%30.7%15.0%15.0%15.0%Margin6.8%11.7%9.7%17.5%|18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%18.8%Less:IncomeTaxes18.4%(0.4)(0.7)(0.8)(2.6)|(5.5)(7.2)(8.3)(9.6)(11.0)(13.1)UnleveredNetIncome1.63.23.511.6|24.532.136.942.448.818.7%57.9Plus:DepreciationandAmortization0.60.81.21.4|2.23.74.34.95.76.7Less:CapitalExpenditure(2.3)(2.2)(4.2)(4.3)|(6.7)(11.1)(12.7)(14.6)(16.8)25.9%(20.0)Margin(7.9%)(6.5%)(9.6%)(5.3%)|(4.2%)(5.3%)(5.3%)(5.3%)(5.3%)(5.3%)Less:AdditionstoIntangibles0.2(0.2)(0.0)0.0|0.00.00.00.00.00.0Less:IncreaseinWorkingCapital(1.8)(3.7)(1.9)(13.8)|(27.2)2.4(7.0)(8.0)(9.3)(23.6%)(11.0)Margin(6.3%)(11.2%)(4.4%)(16.9%)|(17.0%)1.1%(2.9%)(2.9%)(2.9%)(2.9%)UnleveredFreeCashFlow-1.6-2.1-1.4-5.0|-7.227.121.424.628.333.7AnnualGrowthNA27.2%(30.8%)247.3%|43.5%(477.0%)(21.0%)15.0%15.0%DiscountFactor-Mid-PeriodConvention0.110.731.732.733.735.23PVofYearlyCashFlows-1.625.618.619.820.9PresentValueofEquity@October09,2010DCFAssumptions%ofTEV%ofMVEPVof2010FreeCashFlowStub(1)(1.6)(0.4%)(0.3%)WeightedAverageCostofCapital8.44%PVof2011-2014FreeCashFlows(1)84.920.8%17.8%PVofTerminalValue(1)325.179.6%68.4%TerminalEBITDAMultiple7.0xEnterpriseValue408.4100.0%85.9%Less:ImpliedPerp.GrowthRateofUnleveredFreeCashFlow(2)2.1%TotalDebt(7.1)(1.5%)PreferredStock0.00.0%TaxRate18.4%MinorityInterest0.00.0%Plus:CashandEquivalents74.315.6%EquityValue475.6100.0%SharesOutstanding33.6ImpliedPerShareValue14.16CurrentPrice10.