烟草会议中欧讲稿(1)

2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer1LessonsfromCompetitveExperiencesW.A.FischerCEIBS,ShanghaiFebruary1,19992019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer2UnderstandingRivalry:TheHeartoftheCompetitiveEquation2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer3TheNatureofEconomicInquiry?thefocusofeconomics[fromaWestern,market-orientedperspective]haslargelybeenonhowwellaneconomyallocatesresources,givenpreferencesandtechnologies.RichardR.Nelsonespeciallywherefirmsaretheprincipalallocatingagents2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer4TheNatureofthePlayers?economiststendtoseefirmsasplayersinamulti-actoreconomicgame...RichardR.Nelson2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer5TheNatureofRivalryTheessenceofrivalryisastrivingforpotentiallyincompatiblepositions?FredericM.Scherer?thejockeyingforsharebyfirmswithinamarket.Besanko,Dranove&Shanley2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer6Whoarethese揻irms?andwhataretheirroles?Somefundamentalassumptions搮anentityrunbyagentsofthecapital-owningprincipalswiththesoleobjectiveofmaximizingtheprofitsofthelatter厰RonaldDorethus,in搈odern?marketeconomy,wecanseparatemanagementfromownership...2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer7OtherUnderlyingAssumptions•profits[surpluses]beingseenasasignalofperformanceinamarket•afaithinmarketallocationofresourcesincomplexsituationsovergovernmentallocation--becausethecustomerisvotingwiththeirpurchases•themaximizationoftheoverallsocialwelfarefunctionbytheaccumulationofnumerouspersonaldecisions--thecustomerbeingseenasbeinginthebestpositiontodeterminewhattheywant2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer8EstablishingtheArena[Amarketis]thatsetofsuppliersanddemanderswhosetradingestablishesthepriceofagood.GeorgeStigler&RobertSherwinCustomersSuppliersRivalry2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer9Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscale•Thehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.2019/9/1310TheCentralityofScaleEconomies•TheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer11Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscale•Thehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.•Inmarketswhereconsumersarepricesensitive,largerfirmscanusetheircostadvantagetogainanappreciableadvantageoversmallerfirms.•IntheUS,ithasbeenshownthatfirmsizeispositivelycorrelatedwithprofitability.•However,causeandeffectarenotwell-established.•Also,largersharesforsome,meanlowersharesforothers.2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer12Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscale•Thehistoryoftheindustrialrevolutionwasoneofeconomiesofscale.•Buteveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.–Infact,instudiesintheUS,mid-century,minimumoptimalplant/firmsizeappearedtobesmallrelativetomarketsize[single-digit].2019/9/1313TheCentralityofScaleEconomies•TheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer14Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itisimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscale•Buteveninsuchanon-complexsetting,biggerwasnotalwaysbetter.•OneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing,whichisdifferentthanjustbeingbiggerorsmarter.2019/9/1315TheCentralityofScaleEconomies•TheEconomicsoftheIndustrialRevolutionStaticEconomiesDynamicEconomiesCostperUnitRatedCapacityofFacilityCostperUnitCumulativeProductionofAStandardizedItemTheoretical&Empirical2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer16Insuchaclassicalmarketsetting,itimportanttoconsidereconomiesofscale•OneofthelessonsoftheJapanesemanufacuringtriumphsofthelastthreedecadeshasbeentheimportanceoflearning,throughrepetitivemanufacturing.•Yet,learning,especiallywhenbasedonrepetition,comeswiththeriskofrigidityifthefocusistoo-muchonconsistentcost-reduction.2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer17TheImportanceofMarketMaturityempiricalresearchon113USmanufacturingfirmsbyCEIBSfaculty?nearlyonehalfoftherevenuesgeneratedbythe11mostsuccessfulfirms?camefrommaturemarkets.However,77percentofrevenuesfor15oftheleastsuccessfulfirmscamefrommaturemarkets.Capon,Farley&Hoenig2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer18but,marketsarechanging;theyarenolongerclassicalnorsimple2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer19TheHistoryofCompetitionwasmarkedbysuccessiveIndustrialRevolutionsCraft/HouseholdBusinessesIndustrialRevolutionScientificManagementFunctionalProfessionalismKnowlege-IntensiveOrgsManagementPerformance2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer20Tomorrow抯Marketswillbecharacterizedby:•*Increasinglydemandingcustomers•*Anemergingglobalarena•*Anamalgamationofmarketsandresourcepools[EU,NAFTA,etc.]•*Theappearanceofadversarialtrade•*Neo-Kondratieffiantechnologychanges•*Thequickeningoftheproductlife-cycle•*Theemergenceoftheknowledge-basedinformationeconomy•*Anacceptanceofneworganizationalformats[Alliances,jvs,wofes,etc.]2019/9/13WilliamA.Fischer21TheDeathofFirmsAdyingcompanydoesnotlead;itfollows.Itislosingmarketshare,itislosingcapabilities,ithasthewrongsetofcompet