欧盟国家人口老龄化及其对社会经济政策的影响

[]2002-08-06[](1969-),,,,,:20025No.5,2002(135)POPULATIONJOURNAL(Tot.No.135)(,130012)15,,(80),,,,;;C923A1004-129X(2002)05-0052-04AbstractOverthenext15years,theagestructureofEuropeanUnionwillchangeconsiderably.Thepercentageofagingpeopleagewillexperienceaverysignificantincrease,especiallyamongelderlypeople.Twodrivingforcesarebehindtheagingofthepopulation:afallinfertilityandanincreaseinlifeexpectancy.Theprogressiveagingwillbewithfar-reachingsocio-economicpolicyimplication:labormarket,pensionsystem,oldagebenefit,healthcaresystemandmigrationpolicies.KeywordsEU;agingofpopulation;socio-economicpolicyimplication,200011,153176,,22%,15%,656000,16%,(15-64)24%1960,34002010,27%,805050%,,:1115,0-1415-2425-54,8%7%215%,55-64,20%200011%20151218%40%;10%,,651025©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,201522%1611%1914%,2020204015,651/3;20%(80),1548%2000(2000317%,2015513%),1300,,,70%;,10%(1)115200020150-1420002000/2015()(%)15-2420002000/2015()(%)25-5420002000/2015()(%)55-6420002000/2015()(%)65+20002000/2015()(%)80+20002000/2015()(%)63533-846736-7163365-34154919609882213852481795-111240-14434-610243617121735361983-6620152344-75951679028208712915-119123-235831-310955313313282897491603-11476-2644463119913181920373715940-45778-3117158239602565961514535911145-47722-425441-3547346941923211766826-6658-17154919319494243295268290-106823-1725324-668089103432222406382-3493019704441623213672946-21877117299-6158341215436501361360-18954-13611-391216125323278381677-71484-214245410601815351628551943-12662-32258-105433776636171441638-181025103678-398714153321436611390-117244725594-1607023926818233218:Eurostat-DemographicStatistics()211990,65(15-64)22%1999,24%,2010,27%,201030%;,,17%31,2010,32%(65)54%(),14%(,),31%,45%,10%,14%:30%,5%,60%1999,400,,1960215919991145,2080,35©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(1119)(1121);,(1189);,1995117319991150(2),,,501050,,10,199981,75,202084,782151960198019951999152159118211421145215611681155115421541155118011742137115611251137212821211132113021862120111811192173119511701177317631251184118921411164111811212128114911691173311211601153116421691162114011303110211811401148217211631181117421201168117311502172119011711170:Eurostat-DemographicStatistics(),:():1155-64,,,,,,,(201070%),50-64,,,,,:,,,,21,(socialprotectionexpenditure)8://,,:,,45©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,/,,,1998,,(4517%),,6410%1990199810,22%,(pensioner),,,10,,112%,,,20102030,15-6483%,6(19997615%),,,,50,31,(disability),,,10%,,5540%,,(morbidi2ty),113%,25,,,,,41,,,:?,10,,,,,,[1]EuropeanCommission1ThesocialsituationintheEuro2peanUnion20011Luxemburg:OfficeforofficialPublica2tionsoftheEuropeanCommunities,2001,9-18,21-301[2]Eurostat1EuropeansystemofintegratedSocialProtectionStatistics(ESSPROS)1[3]Eurostat1Europeansocialstatistics-Socialprotec2tion1Expenditureandreceipts1980-1998,20001Methodology:ESSPROSManual1996,19961[4]Eurostat1StatisticsinFocus(Populationandsocialcon2ditions),20001[]55©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.