The-Economist-文章

RelationsbetweenChinaandTaiwanTheGambiagambitChinaresumesanolddiplomaticgameMar26th2016|TAIPEI|FromtheprinteditionTAIWANandChina,whichclaimstheindependentisland-nationaspartofthemotherland,usedtoplayajoylessslogginggamecalled“dollardiplomacy”.Initeachsidecompetedwithlorry-loadsofcashandotherinducementstogetsmall,impoverishedandoftenill-runnationstoswitchtheirdiplomaticallegiance.ItwasagamethatTaiwanwassteadilylosinguntil,asagestureofgoodwillontheascensionofaChina-friendlypresidentinTaiwan,MaYing-jeou,Chinasuddenlysuspendeditin2008.Thescore:Taiwan22,China172.YetonMarch17thChinasuddenlyresumedplay,byestablishingdiplomatictieswithGambia,onceaTaiwanally.MrMawasonastatevisittoBelize,oneofTaiwan’ssurvivingfriends,whenthenewsbroke.Hesaiditwasverywrong.InTaiwantherewasoutrage.ThemainlandaffairsministrysaidChina’smoverancontrarytothemutualtrustthatTaiwanandChinahadbuiltupovereightyears.Butthegameisbeingplayednotagainsthim,butratheragainsthissuccessor,TsaiIng-wen,whotakesofficeonMay20th.SofarasChinaisconcerned,thetroublewithMsTsaiisthatsheheadsaparty,theDemocraticProgressiveParty(DPP),thatunlikeMrMa’sKuomintangiscommitted,atleastonpaper,toTaiwan’sdeclaringformalindependence.NomatterthatMsTsai,alow-keyformertradelawyerwhowonthepresidentialelectioninJanuaryinalandslide,hasgoneoutofherwaytoreassurenotjustChinabutalsotheUnitedStatesthatsheintendstopursuepeaceandstabilityacrosstheTaiwanStrait.ThatisinstarkcontrasttoherfirebrandpredecessorfromtheDPP,ChenShui-bian,whowaspresidentfrom2000to2008(andthenjailedforcorruption).UnderMrChen,cross-straitrelationsreachedanadir.HisstudiouslyprovocativechampioningofTaiwan’sindependenceevenstrainedTaiwan’stieswiththeUnitedStates,itsdefender.YetthestickingpointforChinaisthatMsTsaihastodaterefusedtoconcedetoChinesedemandsthathergovernment-in-waitingacceptthatTaiwanislooselypartofChina.Thisisoftenreferredtoasthe“1992consensus”,inwhichbothsidesagreedthattherewasbutoneChina,eventhougheachdisagreedoverwhatexactlythatwas.TheCommunistandproudlyatheistgovernmentinBeijingissointhralltothisbeliefsystemthatitthreatensinvasionshouldformalindependence—ie,anendtothepretencethatthereisonlyoneChina—everbedeclared.Todate,MsTsaihasavoidedevensayingthataconsensuswasreachedin1992.Itisnotcertainthatthediplomaticgamewillnowresumewithfullintensity.Gambia,animpoverishedwestAfricandictatorship,actuallyseveredtieswithTaiwanin2013.ItwasChinathatforthreeyearsrespectedthetruceandturneddownGambianrequestsforties.RecentlyGambiagotthesignalandbeganlearningthescript.Shortlyafteritsforeignminister,NenehMacDouall-Gaye,signedthepapersinBeijingwithhercounterpart,WangYi,shedeclaredthathercountrylookedforwardtothepeacefulreunificationofChinaandTaiwan.Now,saysGeorgeTsai,apoliticalscientist(unrelatedtothepresident)attheChineseCultureUniversityinTaipei,theTaiwanesecapital,theballisinMsTsai’scourt.China,hesays,willwaitforherinaugurationspeechforsignalsaboutherintentions.Ifthespeechdoesnot,intheeyesofChineseleaders,rehearseanacceptablecatechism,thediplomaticgamecouldfullyresume,orworse.“Weabsolutelywillnotallow…nationalseparation,”thunderedPresidentXiJinpingrecently.AformerDPPvice-minister,TungChen-yuan,highlightshowmismatchedthetwosidesnoware.In1992themainland’sGDPwas1.9timeslargerthanTaiwan’s.By2014thegapbetweenthetwoeconomieshadwidenedtonearly20times.ThesedaysChinagetstosettheconditionsthatTaiwanisexpectedtomeetifgoodrelationsaretoexist.ClinicaltrialsFormynexttrick...Toomanymedicaltrialsmovetheirgoalpostshalfwaythrough.AnewinitiativeaimstochangethatMar26th2016|FromtheprinteditionPAXILwasablockbuster.Itwasintroducedbyitsinventors,GlaxoSmithKline(GSK),in1992,asanantidepressant.Bytheearly2000sitwasearningthefirmnearly$2billionayear.Itwasbeingprescribedtomillionsofchildrenandteenagersonthebasisofatrial,calledStudy329,whichsuggesteditwasagoodtreatmentfordepressedyoungsters.ButwhenBritishregulatorstookasecondlookatStudy329,in2003,theyconcludedthatithadbeenmisleadinglypresented.NotonlydidPaxildolittletohelpyoungsterswithdepression,itoftenmadethingsworse—totheextentofmakingsomewhotookitsuicidal.In2012theAmericanauthoritiesimposedthebiggestfineinthehistoryofthepharmaceuticalindustry,$3billion,onGSKformisreportingdataonavarietyofdrugs,ofwhichPaxilwasone.Sincethen,Study329hasbecomeoneofthebest-knownexamplesofapieceofacademicsleight-of-handcalled“outcomeswitching”.Thisisaprocedureinwhichthequestionsthatascientificstudywassetuptoanswerareswappedpartwaythroughforadifferentlot.Study329setouttomeasuretheimpactofPaxiloneightdifferentvariables,allbasedaroundhowparticipantsscoredonavarietyofdepressiontests.Noneshowedthatitwasanybetterthanaplacebosugarpill,buttheresearcherswhowrotethepapercameupwith19newmeasures.Mostofthoseshowednobenefiteither,butfourdid.Inthepaper,thosefourwerepresentedasiftheyhadbeenthemainmeasuresallalong.Outcomeswitchingisagoodexampleofthewaysinwhichsciencecangowrong.Thisisahottopicatthemoment,withfieldsfrompsychologytocancerresearchgoingthrougha“replicationcrisis”,inwhichpublishedresultsevaporatewhenpeopletrytoduplicatethem.