中国能源科技发展战略

00中国能源科技发展战略中国能源科技发展战略DevelopmentStrategiesforChinaDevelopmentStrategiesforChina’’sEnergysEnergyTechnologiesTechnologies中国科技部中国科技部高新技术发展及产业化司高新技术发展及产业化司副司长副司长许倞许倞XUXUJingJing,DeputyDirector,DeputyDirector--GeneralGeneralDept.ofHiDept.ofHi--TechDevelopmentofIndustrializationTechDevelopmentofIndustrializationMinistryofScienceandTechnologyofChinaMinistryofScienceandTechnologyofChinaAugust22005August2200511主要内容主要内容„背景Background„需求预测EnergyDemandForecast„挑战Challenges„战略选择Strategies22一、背景一、背景BackgroundBackground21世纪前半叶中国的社会经济发展目标China’ssocial-economicdevelopmentgoalsinthefirsthalfofthe21century:（1）2020年，中国的GDP将要比2000年翻两番；Bytheyearof2020,buildingamoderatelyprosperoussocietyinallrespect,andChina’sGDPquadruplefromthe2000level.(2)2050年前后，人均GDP将达10,000美元(中等发达国家的水平)。Bytheyearof2050,percapitaGDPreachesten-thousandU.S.dollar.33能源结构的变化趋势能源结构的变化趋势EnergycompositionEnergycompositionCoal74.6%Oil17.5%Naturalgas1.8%Hydro、Nuclear6.1%Oil23.4%Naturalgas2.7%Hydro、Nuclear7.8%Coal66.1%2002年结构1995年结构442004年我国能源状况China’sEnergyProductionandUsein2004„„一次能源消费量为一次能源消费量为19.719.7亿吨亿吨标准煤标准煤((世界第二大能源消费国世界第二大能源消费国))„„Primaryenergyconsumptionwas1.97billiontonPrimaryenergyconsumptionwas1.97billionton--coalcoal--equivalent(equivalent(tcetce),thesecondintheworld.),thesecondintheworld.13.313.212.410.910.712.113.918.513.113.913.813.2131313.514.819.712.9199519961997199819992000200120022004生产总量Production消费总量Totalconsumption55„„一次能源产量为一次能源产量为18.4618.46亿吨亿吨标准煤标准煤„„Primaryenergyproductionwas1.846billionPrimaryenergyproductionwas1.846billiontcetce¾¾原煤产量原煤产量18.718.7亿吨，居世界第亿吨，居世界第11位位¾¾Coalproductionwas1.87billiontons,thelargestintheCoalproductionwas1.87billiontons,thelargestintheworld.world.¾¾原油原油1.751.75亿吨，居世界第亿吨，居世界第55位位¾¾Crudeoil175milliontons,thefifthintheworld.Crudeoil175milliontons,thefifthintheworld.¾¾天然气产量天然气产量415415亿立方米，居世界第亿立方米，居世界第1616位位¾¾Naturalgas41.5billionNmNaturalgas41.5billionNm33,thesixteenthintheworld.,thesixteenthintheworld.„„发电装机容量发电装机容量4.3884.388亿亿千瓦，居世界第千瓦，居世界第22位位„„Installedpowergenerationcapacitywas438.8GW,the2Installedpowergenerationcapacitywas438.8GW,the2ndndintheworldintheworld..二、需求预测EnergyDemandForecast„„20202020年，我国一次能源需求值在年，我国一次能源需求值在25~3325~33亿吨亿吨标煤之间，均值标煤之间，均值是是2929亿吨亿吨标煤标煤..„„By2020,ChinaBy2020,China’’sannulenergydemandisabout2.9billionsannulenergydemandisabout2.9billiontcetcewitharangeof2.5witharangeof2.5--3.3billion3.3billiontcetce,ofwhich,,ofwhich,¾¾煤煤炭：炭：21~2921~29亿吨亿吨¾¾Coal:2.1Coal:2.1--2.9billiontons662.9billiontons66¾¾石石油：油：4.5~6.14.5~6.1亿吨亿吨¾¾Oil:0.45Oil:0.45––0.61billiontons0.61billiontons¾¾天然气天然气：：1400~16001400~1600亿立方米亿立方米¾¾Naturalgas:140Naturalgas:140--160billioncubicmeters160billioncubicmeters¾¾发电装机容量：发电装机容量：8.6~9.58.6~9.5亿千瓦亿千瓦¾¾Installedpowergenerationcapacity:860Installedpowergenerationcapacity:860--950GW950GW77三、挑战Challenges11、能源供需矛盾突出、能源供需矛盾突出ChallengestoenergysupplyChallengestoenergysupplyNotonlyoil,butalsoelectricityandcoalsupplyNotonlyoil,butalsoelectricityandcoalsupply我国目前人均能源消费约为我国目前人均能源消费约为11吨吨标煤，世界平均值为标煤，世界平均值为2.12.1吨吨标标煤，美国煤，美国11.711.7吨吨标煤，标煤，OECDOECD国家国家6.86.8吨吨标煤标煤ChinaChina’’scurrentpercapitaenergyscurrentpercapitaenergy--useisabout1useisabout1tcetce..Theworldaverageis2.1Theworldaverageis2.1tcetce,U.S.11.7,U.S.11.7tcetce,and,andOECDcountries6.8OECDcountries6.8tcetce..88中国人均能源资源量远低于世界平均水平中国人均能源资源量远低于世界平均水平ChinaChina’’spercapitareservesofmajorenergyspercapitareservesofmajorenergyresourcesarefarbelowtheworldaverages:resourcesarefarbelowtheworldaverages:石油石油2.602.60吨，天然气吨，天然气10741074立方米，煤炭立方米，煤炭9090吨，分别吨，分别为世界平均值的为世界平均值的11.1%11.1%，，4.3%4.3%，，55.4%55.4%¾¾Oil:2.6ton/person,11.1%oftheworldaverageOil:2.6ton/person,11.1%oftheworldaverage¾¾Naturalgas:1,074cubicmeters/person,4.3%ofNaturalgas:1,074cubicmeters/person,4.3%oftheworldaverage.theworldaverage.¾¾Coal:90tons/person,55.4%oftheworldaverage.Coal:90tons/person,55.4%oftheworldaverage.99„„到到20202020年，中国石油消费量将为年，中国石油消费量将为4.5~6.14.5~6.1亿吨亿吨，届时国，届时国内石油产量为内石油产量为1.8~2.01.8~2.0亿吨亿吨，对外依存度将达，对外依存度将达60%60%„„ChinaChina’’sannualdemandforoilwillriseto0.45sannualdemandforoilwillriseto0.45––0.610.61billiontonsby2020,whilethedomesticproductionbilliontonsby2020,whilethedomesticproductioncanonlysupplyabout0.18canonlysupplyabout0.18--0.2billiontons.60%of0.2billiontons.60%ofChinaChina’’soilsupplywillrelyonimport.soilsupplywillrelyonimport.22、能源安全，尤其是石油安全问题凸现、能源安全，尤其是石油安全问题凸现Emergingenergysecurityissues,especiallyEmergingenergysecurityissues,especiallyoilsupplyoilsupply1010„„70%PM,90%SO70%PM,90%SO22,,67%NO67%NOXX,82%,82%acidrainacidrain„„ExternalityduetopublichealthExternalityduetopublichealthdeterioration:7%GDP(1995),deterioration:7%GDP(1995),13%GDP(2020)13%GDP(2020)LargeQuantity•DirectCombustion•LowEfficiency•HighEmissionsDominantutilizationofcoalleadstoseverepollution33、环境污染严重，可持续发展面临较大压力、环境污染严重，可持续发展面临较大压力SevereenvironmentalSevereenvironmental--pollutionproblemspollutionproblems1111•Inaglobalpointofview,China’sper-capitacarbonemissionisstilllow.•Butwhentakenthelargepopulationintoaccount,thewholeamountranksthesecond.