_人民币成为储备货币的条件探讨

510320:宋建军(1955-),辽宁大连人,广东商学院金融系教授,硕士生导师,研究方向为国际金融Vol.23No.3Mar.200731人民币成为储备货币的条件探讨:比较学术界流行的储备货币形成条件与牙买加体系下储备货币演化的实际过程,得出一国货币成为储备货币须具备稳定的政治经济环境等五个条件据此考查人民币,其成为储备货币的五个条件中已成熟了三个,还缺少两个;但从目前我国政府的政策看,另两个条件完善的时间也并不遥远:人民币国际化;储备货币;形成条件:F820.2:A:1002-0594(2007)03-0031-05:2006-10-11,112,(),122:;;;/0;,,,,,一国际上流行的国际储备货币必要条件与现实的冲突,132:;))))));;,,,(26)()198056,1976,2%,,1979,1980,/0,56,,56,,0.7%(2002),6.3%0.7%,,10,14(26),0.6%,3INTERNATIONALECONOMICSANDTRADERESEARCH2332007332,/0()/0(openanddeepfinancialmarkets)1976~1980,,2%415%,142,,()1963~1975,,2070()90,1360,2580,120,二从现实中归纳储备货币形成的必要条件,?,(),,?,(),,(),,(),,,,))),,,,(),,,,,,,,()))),(,,,),,,(),(),,;,,))),,,()/0,,,(),?,:()()(),,,,,,,,,142,,:,Vol.23No.3Mar.200733,,;;;,,,1960,1964,1980,1997142()(),,,(trilemma):,,,,,?,,,2070,;,-/0,:,(),()205090,206090,,()),,,,;,::()三人民币成为储备货币的必要条件准备状况,,,,:,,,,,(1998);,,,,?()1980,1990,;,,;,,(),1978~2005,206141422112,6960,GDP1500,,,,2003~20053711%3517%2312%,20062314%,20%,3INTERNATIONALECONOMICSANDTRADERESEARCH2332007334,11()5;,,2000,20032005,()1980,1994,,1997~2000,,,,,(),2003,,,,,),,,,,,,,:,20052000,,,;,,,3500,2000,,2006,3500,216,,,,5500(,),,()))))))),,四人民币成为储备货币的路径预测,,,,/0;,/0,,/0,,,;,,,1148(1=514);,,(),,,514,36%,152,200535%,(),GDP40%,,,,,()2005721,,;Vol.23No.3Mar.2007352005723:/0,)));,95418%,,,:5%,,52012,20052012,,,,;2012;2,,,2015,,;20,,,,(2020)3%(),,,,6,10,/0(宋建军电子信箱:[e-mail]):112,.:[J].,2005,(8).122.[M].,2002:P658.132.[J].,2002,(4).142KenjiAramak,iSequencingofCapitalAccountLiberalization-JapanpsexperiencesandtheirimplicationstoChina-[J]PublicPo-licyReview,2006,Vo.l2,No.1.152.35%[EB/OL].(GuangdongBusinessCollege,Guangzhou510320,China)Abstract:ThepaperhasconcludedfiveconditionsforareservecurrencybycomparingpopularviewpointsabouttheformingconditionforreservecurrencyintheacademiaandtheactualevolutionprocessofreservecurrencyintheJamaicasystem,andherebyexaminedtheconditionthatRMBisprovidedwithatthepresenttime.Thisana-lysisindicatesthatRMBisnowqualifiedforthreeoutofthefiveconditions.ButbasedonthecurrentpolicyofChinesegovernmen,titwonptbelongforthetwoimmatureconditionstobeperfected.Keywords:internationalizationofRBM;reservecurrency;formingconditionforreservecurrency()