后危机时代新贸易保护主义对我国外贸的影响_崔炳堂

i摘要后危机时代新贸易保护主义分析的基本立足点是2007年美国金融爆发危机以后，其后续消极影响不断扩大，并发展成为一场世界级的经济危机在全球范围内蔓延开来，西方主要的资本主义国家国内经济严重衰退，国内需求大幅度萎缩，产业竞争力急速下降。在此背景下，以美国为首的主要经济体率先发起了新一轮旨在挽救本国经济，摆脱经济危机的贸易保护主义政策。新贸易保护主义是新形势下出现的以管理贸易理论为指导的贸易保护主义。与传统贸保护主义不同，新贸易保护主义极大影响了各国外贸的发展，受到世界的普遍关注。本文正是着眼于后危机时代新贸易保护主义出现的新特点和其对我国经济发展，以及对我国产业的影响，重新审视贸易保护主义的产生发展，WTO所建立的逐步消除贸易保护主义，推进贸易自由化的相关工作机制，并针对我国利用WTO的相关机制以及自身的措施和责任，尽力降低和消除金融危机以及金融危机下的贸易保护主义对我国国民经济和社会发展的影响所应采取的策略提出了自己的见解。本文主要分为五个部分，第一部分对全文做一个简单综述，提出文章的研究意义背景与意义，并回顾迄今为止贸易保护主义领域的相关国内外文献，在此基础上提出本文研究范围与研究理论基础。第二部分对贸易保护的相关理论进行具体分析，分别用两节的内容作详细介绍：第一节分析传统贸易保护主义理论的演变过程；第二节是对新贸易保护主义的理论分析。第三部分比较全面的介绍了后危机时代的新贸易保护主义的表现形式、特点和成因。第四部分首先利用需求供给曲线在短期内新贸易保护主义产生的经济效应，其次从具体的各个产业层面利用昀新数据详细分析新贸易保护主义对我国出口产业产生的影响。第五部分后危机时代应对新贸易保护主义的对策是全文的结尾部分，在总结全文的基础上提出后危机时代我们应该采取的措施。关键词：后危机时代新贸易保护主义WTOiiAbstractTheanalysis’sbasicstandpointofNewTradeProtectionisminpost-CrisiseraisUSfinancialcrisiseruptsin2007,andtheexpandingofitsnegativeeffect,developingintoaseriousworld-classeconomiccrisis.Domesticeconomyofmainwestcapitalistcountriesslumpfiercely,andtheirdemandatrophiedwithlargescaleandtheindustrialcompetitivepowerrapiddeclined.Underthisbackground,theUS-ledmaineconomiestooktheleadtoinitiatenewlyroundhasbeenforthepurposeofsavingourcountryeconomy,gotridofeconomiccrisis'stradeprotectionismpolicy.Thenewtradeprotectionismbesideshavethecharacteristicwhichthetraditiontradeprotectionismpolicyhas,butalsohassomecrisisbackgroundhistoricalcharacteristics,liketheprotectiongoalistosavethecountryeconomyortosaveonecountryeconomytoplaceitselfoutsidetheeconomiccrisis,protectmeasuresdiverse,andhastheconfidentiality,thescopeprotectedhasexpandedandobtainsintheregionextendsandsoon.ThispaperdiscussesthenewcharacteristicsoftradeprotectionismfollowingthecrisisanditsimpactonthesocialandeconomicdevelopmentofChinaandeconomicglobalization,reviewstheemergenceanddevelopmentoftradeprotectionism，andWTO’sschemesforeliminatingtradeprotectiongraduallyandpromotingfreetrade.Uponalltheanalyses，thearticleputsforwarditssuggestionstoChinatomakeuseoftheWTOschemestolessenandeliminatetheimpactofthecrisisandtheaccompanyingtradeprotectionmeasuresonitseconomy.Thearticleiscomposedoffiveparts.Partone:makesasimplesummary，putsforwardtheresearchbackgroundandsignificance.Literaturereviewsofarthefieldoftradeprotectionismandproposedinthisarticlethescopeofthestudyandresearchandtheoreticalbasis.Partwo:Specificanalysisoftherelevanttheoryoftradeprotection,firstly,introducesthehistoryandsocialandeconomiccircumstancesoftheoriesofmercantilism，theinfantindustryargumentforprotection，thehyper-Keynesianpoliciesandtheneo-protectionismintradepolicy.Secondly,theoreticalanalysisonthenewtradeiiiprotectionism.Partthree,comprehensiveintroductionthenewmanifestationsoftradeprotectionism,thecharacteristicsandcausesinthepost-crisisera.Partfour:first,thedemand-supplycurveintheshorttermeconomiceffectsofnewtradeprotectionism.Secondly,detailedanalysisoftheimpactofnewtradeprotectionismusingthelatestdata.Partfive:CountermeasurestotheTradeProtectionintheFinancialCrisis，putsforwardtheauthor’ssuggestionsonmeasuresthatcouldbetakenbothbythestateandbusinessesagainstthetradeprotectioninthefinancialcrisis.Keywords:Post-crisiseraNewtradeprotectionismWTOiv目录第1章绪论.......................................................................................................................11.1研究背景及意义.....................................................................................................11.2文献综述.................................................................................................................21.2.1国内研究综述...................................................................................................................21.2.2国外研究综述...................................................................................................................51.2.3总体评价...........................................................................................................................61.3本文的研究方法、框架、创新与不足.................................................................61.3.1本文的研究方法...............................................................................................................61.3.2本文的结构框架...............................................................................................................71.3.3本文创新与不足..............................................................................................................7第2章贸易保护的相关理论...........................................................................................82.1传统贸易保护理论的演变.....................................................................................82.1.1重商主义理论...................................................................................................................82.1.2幼稚产业保护理论...........................................................................................................82.1.3凯恩斯超贸易保护理论...................................................................................................92.1.4新贸易保护主义理论.........................................